And why countries need to work together
National Security Council of Afghanistan, chaired by Hamid Karzai last week accused an intelligence agency of Pakistan of having orchestrated the attack on Abdullah Abdullah, the frontrunner in the Afghan presidential elections through Lashkar-e-Tayyaba, allegedly aimed at sabotaging the second phase of the elections in Afghanistan. The absurdity of the allegations is amply exposed by the fact that when the Chief of the Army Staff General Raheel Sharif flew into Kabul recently to meet his Afghan counterpart, General Sher Muhammad Karimi, and ISAF commander General Joseph Dunford, the trilateral meeting acknowledged the fact that Pakistan had lived up to its commitment of not taking sides or meddling in the first round of presidential elections. The moot, reportedly, deliberated on security situation in Afghanistan, transfer of security responsibility to Afghanistan Security Forces consequent upon the drawdown of US/ISAF forces and bilateral relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan with particular reference to co-ordination of arrangements along Pak-Afghan border.
The meeting was actually a follow up move on the agreement reached at the 8th trilateral summit talks between Turkey, Pakistan and Afghanistan held recently in Ankara wherein the three countries agreed to enhance cooperation for regional security, stability and development. Pakistan and Afghanistan broadly agreed to the proposition of managing the border between them to check the activities of the terrorists that were detrimental to regional peace and good neighbourly relations between the two countries. Another very significant outcome of the parleys was the commitment made by Karzai during a press conference addressed by the three leaders that Afghanistan would oust the TTP leaders and their associates from Afghanistan. Kabul and India have been supporting the TTP in carrying out terrorist acts within Pakistan. Deputy Commandant of TTP Latifullah Mehsud, who was arrested in October 2013 by the NATO forces when he was retuning after his meeting with the high ranking officials of the Karzai government and the functionaries of the Afghan intelligence, confessed to his interrogators that the Indo-Afghan nexus was fomenting terrorist acts within Pakistan.
Last week, Afghanistan decided to pull out of security talks in Islamabad by blaming Pakistan for the cross-border attacks on Afghan territory, in spite of the fact that the attacks were carried out on the Pakistani security check posts from across Afghanistan. Not only that, Karzai during his visit to India to participate in the swearing in ceremony of Narendra Modi, also pointed an accusing finger towards Pakistan for the attack on the Indian Consulate in Herat and repeated his claim that Mullah Omar was in Pakistan. All these developments are not surprising at all. In fact Karzai all along has been hurling such allegations against Pakistan, notwithstanding the fact that Pakistan’s role as facilitator of the process of reconciliation in Afghanistan, support for Afghan-led and Afghan-owned solution to the conflict and dialogue between Taliban and the US at Doha, have been appreciated by US and its allies and the UN Secretary General repeatedly.
The question arises as to why Karzai has been relentlessly persisting with his anti-Pakistan rhetoric? Well, my considered view is that he was trying to erase his image as a puppet of US, which he is generally perceived by the masses and the Taliban, and to remain on the political chessboard of Afghan politics by siding with forces opposed to Taliban. Pakistan is the convenient whipping horse for him to further his ambitions with the support of its arch rival India.
Abdullah Abdullah is manifestly pro-India and is likely to win the second round as he has enlisted the support of the two contestants of the first round of elections namely Zalmai Rasoul and Abdul Raousl Syyaf. Former Afghan intelligence chief Amrullah Saleh and influential brother of Karzai, Mahmud Karzai are also backing him. Both the candidates for the run-off have committed themselves to sign the BSA which would allow about ten thousand US troops to remain in Afghanistan and to continue the process of reconciliation with Taliban. According to the new plan announced by Obama, the number of the troops would be halved by 2015 and by the end of 2016 all the American soldiers would be recalled, except a few hundred who would be required for manning the security office in Kabul. The security and maintenance of law and order after 2014 would be the exclusive responsibility of the Afghan security forces.
Now the questions being asked are: Will the Afghan security forces be able to resist and subdue the Taliban on their own? Will the new Afghan government be able to establish peace in Afghanistan by bringing the Taliban back to the mainstream Afghan politics? Will India be playing a big role in the post-withdrawal period and prop up an anti-Pakistan government in Kabul? Well, as far as Afghan security forces are concerned, their ability to resist the onslaught of the Taliban is quite doubtful for the reason that they have been penetrated by the pro-Taliban elements, as is testified by frequent incidents of turning on their guns on their own trainers and colleagues by the Afghan soldiers and desertions from the ranks. The new Afghan government would not be able to keep the process of reconciliation on track on its own. It would certainly need support from Pakistan to accomplish it and therefore would perforce have to have cordial ties with her. In case the Taliban agree to join the Afghan government, they would act as a counterbalance to Indian influence as they consider India as an enemy.
The new Afghan president, despite his leanings towards India, would not be in a position to continue hostility towards Pakistan. Both Pakistan and Afghanistan need each other and no government could change the geographical realities. Pakistan government has already indicated its strong desire to work with the new government in Afghanistan. The fears about greater Indian role in Afghanistan, therefore, seem exaggerated. Pakistan still remains a major player in facilitating peace and reconciliation in Afghanistan.
China is also keen to see peace returning to Afghanistan and an end to terrorist culture. It is poised to play a bigger role in the reconstruction and rebuilding of Afghanistan under its new initiative of westward push and revival of the old Silk Route. Chinese involvement and role in rebuilding of Afghanistan would be less controversial as compared to India and probably more acceptable to all the Afghan factions. This could also be another strong factor in diluting Indian influence.
