Will the ‘Deep State’ allow peace?

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Six years after Mumbai, incoming Indian PM Modi pledges better relations with Islamabad, but only if it cracks down on the deep state’s patronship of terror

 

 

India’s incoming Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s decision to invite his Pakistani counterpart, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, to attend his inauguration in New Delhi on Tuesday is a bold move intended to signal the new government wants to end the decades of confrontation in South Asia.  Sharif’s delayed response reflects his lack of control over the instruments of power in his own country and suggests the Indian initiative will face tough resistance from Pakistan’s “deep state.”

But Sharif has arrived in India today. He too, it is clear, wants to end the cold war in the subcontinent.

Modi’s election is the most important political moment in India in decades.  For the first time in over a quarter century a Prime Minister’s own party, the Bharatiya Janata Party, will have a majority in the parliament and can pass significant legislation without gaining the backing of a host of smaller, mostly regional parties. Modi can try to jump start the Indian economy, reduce government bureaucracy and corruption and get the country moving forward in a way his predecessors could not.

Inviting Sharif to the inauguration, along with the leaders of India’s other neighbors in South Asia, is also a bold move.   It comes almost six years after  the city of Mumbai was attacked by ten Pakistani terrorists in the most important terror attack since 911. Between November 26 and 29, 2008 over 160 people died and over 300 were injured by the terrorists in the city’s most luxurious hotel, the Taj Mahal.

Six Americans were among the victims.

The men who masterminded the attack are still free in Pakistan and are plotting more attacks. Years of good police work and investigation have established clearly that the plot was the joint work of Laskar e Tayyiba (LeT) and the Pakistani intelligence service known as the ISI.

In the last five years some good work has been done by India and America to bring to justice some of those involved like David Headley, the American who did the reconnaissance for the attack,  and Sayeed Zabiuddin Ansari – alias Abu Jindal – who was in the Karachi control room in 2008 overseeing the massacre.

But the Pakistani mastermind of the Mumbai plot, LeT’s leader Hafez Saeed, remains free in Pakistan where he continues to be a darling of the ISI and regularly calls for more attacks on India and America. He has already mocked Modi’s election.  There is an American bounty for information that could lead to his arrest but it seems unlikely he will be brought to justice any time soon by Pakistan.  The army and ISI protect Saeed and the LeT.  The LeT and ISI  apparatus is still training legions of terrorists like the ten sent to Mumbai.

The ISI officers involved in the plotting are also free.  Some have suggested that ISI involvement was probably only low level and that the top army commanders did not know what was going on.

As a former professional intelligence officer I find that argument ridiculous.

Running an American citizen like Headley for years was a major ISI operation that would have been overseen and monitored, if not micro managed, by the very top of the service.  They knew what the plan was and they approved it. The government of President Asif Zardari was never strong enough to try to tackle the ISI.

Modi has pledged to seek better relations with Islamabad but only if it cracks down seriously on the deep state’s patronship of terror.   He has significant potential economic carrots and sticks to use with Sharif who knows Pakistan needs to dramatically improve trade with India if it is to get its own economy moving.

But Sharif is also very aware that the last time he was Prime Minister, he tried to get peace talks moving with India – only to be sabotaged by the deep state.  Early in 1999 Sharif invited then Prime Minister Atal Vajpayee to Lahore to talk about reducing tensions. Less than six months later Sharif’s army chief, Pervez Musharraf, broke the cease fire in Kashmir and started a small war around the town of Kargil.  The small war threatened to escalate into a full scale catastrophe with nuclear weapons until Sharif bravely came to Washington on July 4th and was persuaded by President Bill Clinton to unilaterally pull back the Pakistani army behind the cease fire line.  By the end of 1999 Sharif had been over thrown in a coup by Musharraf.  The deep state had triumphed.

More than five years after Mumbai justice has yet to be served.   The small fish have been brought to account for their role but the big fish are still free and dangerous.   Modi and Sharif are smart to meet but the challenge will be for Pakistan to control its own hardliners.  If not it is all but certain that LeT will stage another attack and force Modi to react forcefully  after the outrage.  That could put the entire subcontinent on the brink of catastrophe.

6 COMMENTS

  1. According to details on the internet, Bruce Riedel remained associated with the CIA for 29 years and advised four US Presidents on Middle East and South Asia. And the way the American presidents have acted clearly shows what good was his advice was. And twisting facts seems to be his speciality. He declares the cause of Nawaz Sharif's delayed response to Narendra Modi's invitation to be his lack of control over the instruments of power in his own country, completing ignoring the fact that there is lot of ill feeling in Pakistan towards Modi because of his part in the brutal massacre of Muslims in Gujrat, and Modi's comments on the tragedy only added insult to injury. As a matter of fact, Bruce's own country US had earlier on refused to grant Modi visa on these grounds, but he conveniently forgot to mention this fact.

    He refers to Modi's invitation to Nawaz Sharif as a bold move. In fact, it was a routine move as Modi had invited all SAARC leaders, Nawaz Sharif being one of them.

    He makes big issue of 160 people killed in Mumbai attack but does not feel any need to mention nearly 2,000 Muslims killed in Gujrat. And of course, he would not mention India's dirty work in Balochistan, on Khyber Pakhtunkhwa border with Afghanistan and elsewhere.

    The man says ". Years of good police work and investigation have established clearly that the plot was the joint work of Lashkar e Tayyiba (LeT) and the Pakistani intelligence service known as the ISI." If so, why did the US government announce $ 10 million reward for information leading to Hafiz Saeed's involvement in the case? Why don't those who did "good police work and investigation" just give the incontrovertible evidence to the US and claim $ 10 million bounty?

    He accuses Pakistani military and ISI of protecting Hafiz Saeed, and to the suggestion from some quarters that perhaps there could be involvement of some low level ISI personnel, he blurts out "As a former professional intelligence officer I find that argument ridiculous." He talks as if the world doesn't know that the main job of the US Intelligence officers is to fabricate evidence, forge documents and to prepare reports that pave the way for their bosses to start the actions which they have already decided, like Iraq invasion for example.

    Karachi

  2. The diatribe is slanted in favor of India. There is no such thing deep state and patronage of this so called deep state by the ISI. Mumbai attacks were not engineered by any group in Pakistan. India has wrongly blamed Pakistan or any hard liner group like Lashkar-e- Tayyaiba.

    The writer has promoted Indian view, and blamed the secret agencies for spreading terror across border. i can not believe it, How he is twisting the glaring facts. His Concepts are not clear. He needs to elaborate his point of view in clear terms.

    I do not understand why he has written this piece of garbage, perhaps to appease Modi Sarkar.

    • The bonanza reaped by real estate mafia is visible with affluence of retired former khakis working from their residences, in violation of all rules. The deep state exists and has harmed this country economically and security wise.

  3. I am having hell of time in understanding all these people who want to ignore few brutal historical facts.
    Princely states(~600) were given the right to chose, India did not honor that. People remember Hyderabad Police action & forceful annexation of Kashmir; but today's Pakistanis have completely forgotten Junagarh; Manavader & Mangrol which wanted to join Pakistan.
    Kashmir is not a dead & settled issue, otherwise it will not be in the UNO record as a disputed land. The issue was taken to the Security council twice. Does any one know, how many Indian soldiers are deployed in Kashmir ?
    1970 election & the civil war in East Pakistan was an internal issue, but Indian forces entered Pakistani territory & forced Pakistanis to surrender infront of an Indian General; Mukti Bahni alone could not have done that. If West Pakistanis want to forget that, then in the future Pakistan will be also a lost & forgotten country.
    They talk about Bombay attack continuously, but they have alway supported anti-Pakistan elements, as a result of that countless lives have been lost. No Pakistani was behind the attack on Sri lanka's Cricket team, or the massacre of French Engineers who came here to help Pakistan building the sub-marines. I can not cite each & every tragedy here; But Pakistanis have to think.
    Whether it is Nawaz Sharif or Raheel Sharif, either of them does not have any right to yield to India even one inch. If they do history will add few more names to the list of traitors. And yes ISI is an organization of Tin spooks who are unable to counter RAW effectively.

  4. Silly Pakistanis of a failing Pakistan.

    Cannot see the facts.

    Your country is crumbling like a termite infested tree. Yet, you refuse to change.

    We Indians will be eagerly watching when Pakistan disintegrates in a few years to come.

    Pakistanis ridicule such theory. They forget what happened in 1971. They also argue that 1971 was different because Bangladesh was strategically indefensible. Partially true. But you missed the big picture of a genocide of Bangladeshis which started the process in the first place.

    You cannot treat your own people properly and worry about Gujrat Muslims.

    FYI, (you are welcome to LOL or LMAOROF or you can do some introspection), in Gujrat 2000 strong Muslim mob killed a thousand Muslims. How? If the train of Hindu pilgrims wasn't burned down by the 2000 Muslims, there would't have been any Hindu-Muslim riots.

    But then Muslims are not known for introspection. Muslims are slaves of Chiese or Americans or even Indinas across the globe.

    There is not single Muslim country that is sovereign and powerful today.

    For example: Pakistan has two mothers and two fathers: America and China are Pakistan's fathers. Turkey and Saudi are your mothers.

    Pakistanis are the illegitimate children of two fathers and two mothers. And such a state cannot survive. Will not survive. Mark the words of Chanakya.

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