Two bottles of wine

Still, hope for the best, be prepared for the worst

First reminder: I’ve have said many times that every freedom has limits, the first of which is when one freedom crosses the line and starts transgressing into another freedom. We saw that last Sunday. Freedom to protest peacefully is a democratic right. But so is freedom of movement. When Imran Khan’s rallies blocked large parts of Islamabad and Lahore and Tahir ul Qadri’s blocked large parts of Rawalpindi and 59 other cities, people were confined to their homes and their freedom of movement was violated by freedom of protest.

Similarly, freedom of speech ends when it starts libeling a person or an institution without proof, for the right of protection from defamation is the duty of an Islamic state to enforce, as Geo TV has discovered to its anguish. The government and its electronic media regulator, PEMRA, singularly failed to protect the army from defamation. That is why I say that if Geo is to be closed down, the useless, toothless regulator PEMRA should be closed down too, its members prosecuted and a new regulator with teeth brought in.

It is all very well to want all sorts of freedoms, but you must know what freedom means and the responsibilities it brings with it. Freedom to eat nutritious food is another God-given right, but it doesn’t mean you should start eating human flesh, actually or figuratively, as happens in our rapacious system.

Second reminder: I’ve said many times but it doesn’t get dinned in that unless there is a genuine people-backed revolution, of which chances seem dim, I want this political system to remain and this government to run its course despite the damage. However, with so many fires of frustration raging, you never know. The spark could come suddenly and become a conflagration. Unless there is leadership backed by ideologues, cadres and a vanguard, the conflagration will lead not to revolution but to anarchy and even nihilism (belief that nothing is worthwhile).

Hope for the best and be prepared for the worst. For the present, without a viable alternative, better to let this system run and this government to complete its term despite its ineptitude. Let the rulers discredit themselves as its predecessors did. There is always an outside chance that the system might gradually correct itself. And if Nawaz Sharif extricates himself for his many self-created crises he could last his term. This dispensation has become untenable and unstable and change is inevitable, for better or for worse. Wait for it. Change could be evolutionary, revolutionary or chaotic. Change by military is temporary and after a short period of comparative stability and economic growth, we have to start all over again. The world and our region are changing very fast and Pakistan even faster. Historical forces don’t have the time for yoyo countries lurching from crisis to crisis, civilian ineptitude to military dictatorship. Sure, there are many who are impatient for change because they think that saving Pakistan takes priority over saving this system and government and the sooner they go the better before the country becomes irretrievable.

Imran is forming an alliance with some opposition parties to force electoral reforms. But beneficiaries of the system won’t let go of their ‘right to rig’ so easily.

Some of Nawaz Sharif’s self-created crises are needless confrontation with the army that could lead to the opposite of what he is trying to do and the vengeful treason trial of Pervez Musharraf, perception of rampant corruption, appointing pliable, incompetent favourites to important bureaucratic positions, legitimising the banned Taliban by holding bootless talks with them, increasing our debt stock frighteningly by taking more and more foreign and domestic loans to create the mirage of economic growth, printing billions of rupees daily and increasing inflation, leaving numerous public sector enterprises headless and appointing inappropriate heads to other public companies, surrounding himself with family and a mediocre cabal, inability to bring law and good order, inability to deliver justice from the grassroots up, pious declarations instead of delivery especially of energy, clean water, education and health, no private sector job-creating investments, inability to control inflation, particularly food inflation, inability to stop real incomes from declining, inability to see the big picture, inability to prioritise and overall deviation from his mandate. Still, I don’t want army intervention unless it is absolutely inevitable to save the country from falling apart or into the hands of terrorists. Intervention aborts our people’s learning process and eventually takes us back to where we left off or worse. It erodes the army’s professionalism and fighting capability, especially when it is running the country and fighting enemies on many external and internal fronts at the same time. True, in the final analysis militaries are charged to save their countries, but when they have to save a country from itself it reflects a chronic national sickness. So don’t disrupt this dispensation. Let it continue. Let the people reap the harvest of their voting decisions and partake of its fruit, bitter or sweet. Only then might they learn, hopefully make better decisions in future and with a bit of luck this decrepit system might self-correct. Another pipedream perhaps, but it’s worth our most patient try, otherwise its curtains with a choice between military rule, terrorists parceling the country out between them into religious fiefdoms, anarchy or Pakistan collapsing.

Last Sunday came and went with impressive rallies by Imran Khan in Islamabad and Lahore and by Tahir ul Qadri in Rawalpindi and 59 other cities. Imran is continuing with serial rallies; Qadri says he will start a continuous movement from July. Imran is offering the old wine of electoral reforms in the old bottle of the same system, Qadri the new wine of devolution in the new bottle of a revolutionary democratic system with direct election of the chief executive. Let the people choose through the ballot or the street, but if wishes were horses elephants would fly.

Imran is forming an alliance with some opposition parties to force electoral reforms. But beneficiaries of the system won’t let go of their ‘right to rig’ so easily. He should be careful lest they make a fool of him like Qadri was fooled when his earlier Islamabad sit-in ended in a deal and a whimper.

How is Qadri going to do it? By holding a countrywide movement he could prepare the ground for another army intervention, Egypt style. The army will likely forget Qadri and fall back on its Standard Operating Procedure: more old wine in old bottles and the people will finally get drunk, unless the army has a new template up its sleeve, which would be a surprise. Generals may be able to bring normalcy and kick start the economy for a while, but they are not trained to run a country long-term and soon come a cropper.

Saying revolution is one thing, bringing it is quite another. Writing a new constitution is one thing, giving it legitimacy is a very difficult another. It requires consensus of the people, the real stakeholders.

Saying revolution is one thing, bringing it is quite another. Writing a new constitution is one thing, giving it legitimacy is a very difficult another. It requires consensus of the people, the real stakeholders. Both Imran and Qadri have demonstrated that they have considerable support and pulling power, not least because people are fed up with this dispensation and will rally around anyone that talks of change. But to build majority support they need to understand strategic communications and perception management. The more there is perception of system failure the easier it will be. Overthrowing a government or a constitution is easy, what to replace it with is far more difficult. And that is where revolutions fail and become anarchy, as we have seen in Egypt and the Ukraine. Egypt is back to where it started, with Air Marshal Mubarak replaced by General Sisi. That is all. Which is why Egyptians, who love jokes, call Sisi ‘CC’, acronym for ‘Carbon Copy’. But they do have a new constitution and are trying to finish the Muslim Brotherhood. Movements with support at the grassroots don’t get obliterated so easily. In fact, adversity makes them stronger. The best way to defeat such movements is by delivery, good governance and changing mindsets with education. Nasser tried to eliminate the Brotherhood and hanged dozens of clerics and scholars. He left the Brotherhood stronger and gave rise to Syed Qutb who made violent Jihad a pillar of Islam that produced Al Qaeda and the Takfeer. So be careful.

The Muslim Brotherhood is not to be confused with the our Taliban, which is not a movement but a terrorist group that wishes to grab power by using a misinterpretation of Islam as cover for legitimacy and brainwashing an illiterate people who are literal Muslims by birth and don’t know their Faith. Such groups need to be wiped out before they become movements. So be careful again. Sisi may be making a grave mistake by trying to eliminate the Brotherhood by fiat. Nawaz Sharif is making a grave mistake by negotiating with the Taliban instead of crushing them.

Postscript 1: Its comical that former governor Punjab Lt General Khalid Maqbool and current and longest serving governor Sindh Ishrat ul Ibad apparently deny that they had anything to do with the imposition of emergency on November 3, 2007. It betrays their lack of logic. If all those named in the Proclamation of Emergency Order thought that it was unconstitutional or were not consulted, they should have resigned forthwith. So even if we take them at their word, by staying on in their posts and continuing to work under the 42-day Emergency they became “aiders and abettors” post facto. You can’t have it both ways, Sirs.

Postscript 2: I wouldn’t have used the title ‘Two bottles of wine’ if the old chief justice Iftikhar Chaudhry had still been around for he might have taken suo notice against me. But then I am not so pretty as Atiqa Odho.