Politics of rallies

May 11 will pass, but the PM needs to reset course – in order to survive

Rallies galore! The silly season of political protests and demonstrations is here in full force. All in the name of democracy and protecting the ubiquitous national interest.

The first anniversary of May 11 – the day the first general elections that resulted in a smooth democratic transition for the first time in Pakistan’s checkered political history were held – is being marked as a day of protest rather than something to celebrate. All credit for that goes to PTI chief Imran Khan in cahoots or at least in tandem with the maverick demagogue Tahir ul Qadri has promised to paint the federal capital red on the day.

The Khan is bringing his supporters out on D Chowk – the al Tharir square of Islamabad – in support of his demand of recounting of votes in selective constituencies. His narrative: the elections were free and transparent in KP (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) where he won and fraudulent in Punjab where he lost.

The enigmatic Qadri protesting the same day is clamouring to change ‘the unjust and oppressive democratic system’ – all in the name of real democracy. Remember true democracy of former dictator Pervez Musharraf?

In the final analysis, the military knows that it is in no position to overtly rule. But at the same time it wants to maintain its suzerainty and will not let go easily.

As is well known, Qadri, a former protégé and creation of the Sharif family, is a proud citizen of Canada. As per his oath taken by him, he owes allegiance to the Queen of England, the titular head of the British Commonwealth, but Canada’s sovereign. Qadri claims that he will play havoc on Sunday from his permanent abode in Toronto.

On the other hand rallies being taken out mostly by non-entities in support of the ISI continue unabated all over the country. It all started three weeks ago after the dastardly attack on political analyst and television anchor Hamid Mir in Karachi. His parent channel GEO initially named the ISI chief Lt Gen Zaheer ul Islam as the perpetrator with great fanfare.

The erring media group glibly claims that it was simply amplifying Mir’s younger brother Amir Mir’s sentiments. The matter is now before PEMRA (Pakistan Electronic Media Authority) where the military through the ministry of defence has demanded closure of GEO.

As if this was not enough, known assets like the much-feared across-the-border Amir of Jama’aat-ud-Dawaa Hafiz Saeed, and even relative non-entities like Maulana Tahir Ashrafi have come out of the woodworks in defence of our premier intelligence agency.

They are being given a lot of air space by largely anti-GEO electronic media. The perennial quisling PML-Q being headed by Ch. Shujaat Hussain and the ubiquitous Jamaat e Islami is also lending a helping hand.

The care and caution that should have been exercised in dealing with the military has been conspicuously missing. That is why Nawaz Sharif has run into problems with his handpicked military chief just within a few months of his appointment.

The question that begs an answer here: is there a method in this madness? Do the war gamers really need support of such elements – mostly relative non entities – to shore up their image?

Unfortunately the message that is going across is that in the name of image building (of the ISI) that the real target is not GEO but the PML-N government, and by proxy the democratic system itself. This somewhat infantile war of words is continuing unabated at a time when the country is embroiled in existential issues – namely fixing terrorism, governance issues and the economy.

Funnily enough, battle lines are clearly drawn. On one side are those who ideologically or owing to sheer self-interest would want the civilian democratic system to survive. While on the other side of the divide are those who are known or long having been suspected as assets of the ubiquitous and powerful Pakistani establishment.

The main opposition party the PPP, largely out of power ANP, the nationalists in Balochistan and even JUI-F of Maulana Fazal ur Rehman along with of course the ruling party would not like to upset the apple cart. The MQM is still pursuing its traditional policy of running with the hare and hunting with the hound by sitting on the fence despite being a coalition partner of the PPP in Sindh.

The PML-N government has been spectacularly successful in frittering away the goodwill it had enjoyed only a year ago, thanks to its maladroit policies. Sheer indifference bordering on arrogance has been the hallmark of its first year in power.

The pervasive ethos amongst the ruling elite permeating right from the top is that we do not need to learn from our past mistakes, as there were none made. That is why the people have returned us to power for the third time, they reckon.

The care and caution that should have been exercised in dealing with the military has been conspicuously missing. That is why Nawaz Sharif has run into problems with his handpicked military chief just within a few months of his appointment.

The PML-N government has been spectacularly successful in frittering away the goodwill it had enjoyed only a year ago, thanks to its maladroit policies. Sheer indifference bordering on arrogance has been the hallmark of its first year in power.

Whether it was the case of trial of former strongman and General Sharif’s erstwhile mentor Pervez Musharraf, handling the sensitive negotiations with the TTP (Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan) or the matter of tarring of the ISI chief by GEO, sensitivities of the military were either not kept in mind or deliberately ignored.

In this backdrop, the common perception is that it is a proxy war in which pressure is being exerted on the elected government. It is nothing new. The PPP government faced a worse kind of squeeze at the hands of Kayani-Pasha duo in tandem with the then CJP Iftikhar Chaudhry.

In the final analysis, the military knows that it is in no position to overtly rule. But at the same time it wants to maintain its suzerainty and will not let go easily.

May 11 will pass. IK will have his rally and his tsunamic moment of glory. The malcontent Maulana would continue ranting from his perch in Toronto. And the Zaid Hamids of this world would also keep on doing the bidding on behalf of their masters. But Nawaz Sharif will have to reset his course in order to survive.

He must realize that there are bigger battles to be fought and won than half-baked and hair-brained attempts to conquer the army. Many democratic leaders have done this through a gradualist and nuanced approach. For starters the Sharifs should have a good look at their favourite Turkey’s example that successfully but gradually got rid of its meddlesome generals.

The ISI on the other hand should also stay its hand and concentrate on its mandated job. Rapping GEO for its perceived acts of omission or commission on the knuckles is understandable but to try to shut down a news channel in this day and age will be unacceptable for democratic forces.

The question that begs an answer here: is there a method in this madness? Do the war gamers really need support of such elements – mostly relative non entities – to shore up their image?

Similarly all this hullaballoo on the streets of Pakistan in the name of protecting the honour of the ISI needs to be stopped forthwith. Enough is enough.

There is need to bridge the ostensible trust deficit between Nawaz Sharif and Gen Raheel Sharif. For starters the civilian and military leadership should be on the same page on the inevitable operation against the terrorits holed up in our badlands.

The two Sharifs were reportedly in agreement when they met on Thursday in the immediate aftermath of the attack by the TTP in North Waziristan in which nine soldiers perished.

For a change all state institutions should learn to stick to their own domain and get on with the business at hand. And that includes the media barons trying to punch above their weight and in the process biting more than they can chew.