Ethnic, lingual card to play decisive role in run-up to Afghan polls

PESHAWAR

The scheduled run-up to the Afghan presidential election between Dr Abdullah and Dr Ashraf Ghani is said to divide Afghans on ethnic and lingual basis where the latter is considered to be representing the Pashtun.
However, no one is sure about the results as former jihadist forces are in a decisive position, but no one could neglect the ethnic, communal and lingual influence in Afghan politics. On such grounds, the matter seems complicated, but one thing is clear that heavy investment on the part of candidates and their internal and external supporters can please those who had earlier benefited from wars and hostilities.
In the first round all eight candidates cashed sympathies on the grounds of their stance on issues like terrorism, price hike, poverty, unemployment, corruption, nepotism and ties with the US and neighbouring countries. This time, however, both the candidates are exploiting ideological and political faiths. Dr Abdullah is struggling to muster support of former rebel commanders. Whereas Ashraf Ghani is doing his best to get support of those who have or are still advocating political of the longstanding conflict.
During war against Russia, Dr Abdullah had served Shura-e-Nazar, military wing of Jamiat-e-Islami Afghanistan headed by late Prof Burhanuddin Rabbani. Late Ahmad Shah Masud was commander in chief of Shura-e-Nazar. On the other hand, Dr. Ashraf Ghani distanced himself from the armed struggle and stayed in the United States where he served the World Bank and also taught. The Jamiat-e-Islami was counted among the most influential component of Peshawar-based Islamic Unity of Afghan Mujahideen (IUAM).
With the completion of first leg of polls, Dr Abdullah and his aides are meeting former jihadists. He also enjoys the support of other leaders and commanders. Dr Abdullah has also held meetings with Prof Abdul Rab Rasool Sayaf, who remained fourth in the first round of polls.
Ismael Khan, a warlord from Herat province, is running for the office of vice president. Khan worked for the Shura-e-Nazar and was also second-in-command to late Ahmad Shah Masud. On such grounds, he is likely to support Dr Abdullah. A faction of Hizbe Islami, headed by Abdul Hadi Arghandiwal is already in Dr Abdullah’s camp and is struggling to get support of Engineer Qutubuddin Hilal. Hilal remained fifth during the first round. Dr Abdullah is also in touch with leaders and commanders of other Jihadic forces.
On the other hand, Dr Ashraf Ghani and his aides are holding frequent meetings with former moderate Afghan jihadists from the Afghan National Liberation Front of Prof Sibghatullah Mujaddadi, the National Islamic Front of Afghanistan (NIFA) of Pir Syed Ahmad Gillani and Harkatul Islami of late Maulvi Nabi Mohammadi. Similarly, he is working hard to get support of former foreign minister Dr Zalmay Rasoul. Rasoul remained third during the first round of presidential polls.
So far, former Nangarhar governor Raaz Muhammad Shafaq has announced his support for Dr Ashraf Ghani. Similar might be the status of Hidayat Amin Arsala and Gen Rahim Wardag. Gul Agha Sherzai remained sixth and Hidayat Amin ninth in the first round. Whereas Gen Wardag had withdrawn his candidature at the last moment. Dr Ghani can strengthen his position for the second round if he gets the support of these former candidates.
One thing is clear that instead of ideological and political faiths and beliefs, ethnic and lingual status of the candidates would play a key role in the second round. Whatever might be the stance of leading jihadist and political leaders, but people are preparing themselves for electing next president on ethnic and lingual grounds. Despite his origin from Kandahar, Dr Abdullah is considered the representative of non-Pashtun, especially of the Tajik, whereas Dr Ghani is considered to be representing the Pashtun.
Position of Dr Ghani is stated secure, but other ethnic and lingual groups like Uzbek, Hazara and Turkman would play a decisive role in the second round. The Hazara votes are divided between the two whereas former warlord Rashid Dostam is on the penal of Dr Ghani for the office of vice president.