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It remains a point of conjecture, but the notes emanating from Islamabad and Rawalpindi now seem more in concord than before

The Martyrs’ Day speech by army chief Gen. Raheel Sharif was important not only for what he said but also for what he left unsaid at the auspicious, albeit somber occasion. So eloquently, without mincing any words, he spelt out the military’s views on a number of national issues, but especially on how to deal with the TTP (Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan) and with India on Kashmir.

On Kashmir, his stance stood out, for the politicians have placated India for far too long despite the latter’s belligerent stance. No wonder it has stirred a hornet’s nest in India, both amongst the politicians and media.

Gen Sharif also reiterated his institution’s belief in constitutionalism and rule of law. Thus he effectively quashed rumours rife that perceived military-civilian rift could possibly devour the still incipient democratic system.

His message to the TTP conglomerate was clear: declare allegiance to the constitution unconditionally and return to the mainstream. Or be ready to face the full might of the Pakistani military.

Theoretically the PML-N government should have been the one to deliver the message in unequivocal terms. But unfortunately Nisar Ali Khan, its lead man in negotiations with the TTP, is still hemming and hawing.

It was Gen Sharif’s first public speech since he assumed the position of COAS about six months back. He comes out as a no-nonsense professional soldier who would not like to mince his words.

Unlike his predecessor Gen Kayani, who harboured the pretensions of being an intellectual general, Gen Sharif does not like to couch his utterances in platitudes and generalities. Kayani was present at the Martyrs’ Day, ceremony thus quashing rumours about him being gravely ill.

The new military leadership is clearly a break from the past in more ways than one. For example the journalists present at the ceremony noted that the ubiquitous ’I word’ was conspicuously missing from Raheel’s narrative.

An Islamist analyst noted with dismay the omission of word ‘Islam’ in the speech in his front page rant euphemistically dubbed as ‘News Analysis’. But this does not mean that Islam is no longer the mantra of the army. However it is obvious that it is no longer striving to defend the ideological frontiers as defined by the late dictator, Gen Zia ul Haq.

Reading between the lines in Gen Sharif’s speech an operation against the Taliban holed up in North and South Waziristan is no longer a question of if but when.

The COAS in his speech redefined the ideological frontiers altogether differently. He said, the Quaid’s golden principals: Faith, Unity and Discipline should be the watchword for all (democratic) institutions.

It is clear that Jinnah’s Pakistan means a pluralistic democracy. The military after promoting obscurantism in the name of jihad for decades has hopefully belatedly realized that this counterproductive policy is devouring the state and hence no longer sustainable.

Neither the constitution of Pakistan nor the UN Charter brooks terrorism as an instrument of policy. In this context reading between the lines in Gen Sharif’s speech an operation against the Taliban holed up in North and South Waziristan is no longer a question of if but when.

According to some reports a military operation against the militants is only a few weeks away. Utterances by the Taliban spokesmen and interlocutors also indicate that time is running out for negotiations.

The Taliban have claimed that war and talks cannot go hand in hand. But at the same time they are not willing to stay their hand and are continuing with their terrorist activities.

The TTP has proved to be better negotiators than the government interlocutors. They have effectively controlled their message through the media and in the process have successfully created the perception that they are equal stakeholders.

In the backdrop of the ISI’s (Inter-Services Intelligence) current spat with the Jang-GEO group the general in his speech also reiterated the military’s belief in free but responsible media. The matter being before PEMRA (Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority) GEO still faces threat of closure.

Gen Sharif also reiterated his institution’s belief in constitutionalism and rule of law. Thus he effectively quashed rumours rife that perceived military-civilian rift could possibly devour the still incipient democratic system.

Hopefully the media group rather than unnecessarily taking on the ISI would consider tendering an unconditional apology for directly and unfairly implicating its chief in the murderous attempt on its anchor Hamid Mir.

The military leadership should also take an enlightened view of the matter by not demanding closure of a premier news channel.

After initially backing the pro-Sharif GEO channel, the PML-N government has distanced itself from supporting the media group. In fact, Khawaja Asif, himself in the dock for his initial anti-army tirade, has owned it up by signing the reference to PEMRA against GEO. Similarly, Nisar Ali Khan has been categorical in his statements against the media group.

It is obvious that in recent weeks the civilian leadership has closed ranks with the military leadership. The defence minister and the information minister with PML-N stalwart Senator Raja Zafar ul Haq in tow were present at the martyrs’ day ceremony. And unlike at the Kakul academy only a fortnight ago, Khawaja Asif was given proper protocol at the GHQ.

Those who were banking on a civilian-military rift further widening must be sorely disappointed. The military is not in the mood or in a position to dislodge an elected civilian government. After a reality check the Sharif government is also aware of its limitations.

This however does not mean that there are no irritants. And potential flash points remain. Former strongman Gen Musharraf’s fate still hangs in the balance.

In the final analysis, Musharraf will be allowed to go abroad if he so desires. Perhaps a deal in this thorny matter, if not already done, is in the offing.

The COAS in his speech redefined the ideological frontiers altogether differently. He said, the Quaid’s golden principals: Faith, Unity and Discipline should be the watchword for all (democratic) institutions.

Another potential sore point is negotiations with the Taliban. The military is a major stakeholder in the matter. The primary narrative at the Martyr’s Day programme quite professionally arranged and well articulated visually and verbally by the ISPR (Inter Services Public Relations) was the sacrifices that the military jawans and officers have rendered in fighting against terrorism.

Incidentally the Pakistani military has the highest ratio of officers to the jawans killed in combat. Thus the morale and esprit de corps is high. The feeling that the only way the TTP can be brought around the negotiation table is from a position of strength is pervasive.

Right now the traditional COIN (Counter Insurgency) strategy is being practiced in reverse with potentially disastrous results. Only after quelling the insurgents through military means the government can negotiate with them from a position of relative strength. In the present context, the government strategy seems to be kowtowing to the TTP’s demands from a position of weakness.

The TTP wants to dictate its agenda. Perhaps hitherto the government was willing to lend a sympathetic ear. But now it is finally coming around to the military’s point of view.

The army has been fighting the war on terror now for a little over a decade. It has 154,000 troops stationed in North Waziristan. And unlike his predecessor, Gen Raheel Sharif is not hesitant in employing them to crush the TTP.