PM fanning civil-military friction? Or is it the hawks surrounding him?

Misreading the situation and underestimating the opposition again, Mr Prime Minister?

Gen Musharraf’s appearance before the court on Mar31, and subsequent framing of charges, laid to rest rumours that he might trigger a clash of institutions by failing to show. But some of the government’s decisions seem to imply it might not need to be pushed into confrontation, and in an attempt to portray a position of strength it is overextending into an untenable position.

All these factors make a showdown with the military inevitable. And Nawaz Sharif’s desire to cement civilian rule might well end up doing exactly the opposite.

Initial chatter that the military rank and file was unhappy with the former chief’s treatment came out in the open after Gen Sharif himself relayed the sentiments to the prime minister. That the PM’s team chose to refer Gen Musharraf back to the courts, especially since the army had kept an appreciated distance till the ECL matter, seems to have deepened the estrangement.

Short term, long term

Musharraf’s sympathisers have longed accused the government of indulging in “politics of vendetta”, and accusations that trying him for the Nov3 emergency instead of the original Oct19 coup was selective justice have repeatedly appeared in the press. Now, by refusing the general safe passage, especially since the Supreme Court is likely to clear his name from the ECL, there seems little foresight in the government’s strategy of alienating the army.

“It appears subtle differences are beginning to emerge between the army and government, and the reason is the government’s indecisiveness”, Dr Hassan Askari Rizvi, prominent defence analyst, told Pakistan Today. “Ours is a very professional army, and as such I would be surprised if it didn’t come out in support of its former leader. It has remained silent publically, but it is obviously concerned”.

There are signs that the delicate public truce might not last very long. The army has also been unhappy about other things, particularly the ‘N’ team’s overtures towards India and its accommodation of the Taliban to keeps talks from collapsing.

There are signs that the delicate public truce might not last very long. The army has also been unhappy about other things, particularly the N team’s overtures towards India and its accommodation of the Taliban to keeps talks from collapsing.

Dr Rizvi believes the military will probably give the negotiations one more month. And since there is little likelihood of success – considering the nature of Taliban demands – a military operation is a very real possibility before Ramzan.

“Nawaz’s support base is primarily from Punjab’s right wing Islamists”, said Dr Rizvi, and “these groups are where both sympathisers and supporters of the Taliban are found, which has become a big constraint for the prime minister”.

Catering to the ruling party’s favoured lobby is deepening differences with the military, which does not believe militants will give up foreign funding, arms, and the ability to dictate terms just because the government is willing for a conditional settlement.

These, according to Dr Rizvi, are short term tactics which show government indecisiveness, and its inability to develop a long term plan.

But sources close to the prime minister, wishing not to be named, indicate his closest advisors are very clear about both issues, even if the leader himself hesitates sometimes. They are convinced nothing will strengthen democracy more than making an example of Musharraf. And they are equally sure talking the Taliban to a final settlement is in the best interest of the country. It was this core group that persuaded the PM to pursue talks even after he had publically pledged military action.

More serious charges

“The Taliban are the N league’s militant wing”, said Taj Haider, senior PPP leader. “The ideological closeness is important. And when was there a time when they were not negotiating with the TTP?”

“The Taliban are the ‘N’ league’s militant wing”, said Taj Haider, senior PPP leader. “The ideological closeness is important. And when was there a time when they were not negotiating with the TTP?”

It is now becoming clear that opposition parties did not obstruct the APC to let hawks in the government try the negotiations option to their satisfaction. And the way the government has allowed the religious right to take over the national narrative, there is little doubt of the ruling party’s closeness to the Islamist lobby, including the TTP. “Do you think terrorists would have been allowed to set up training camps in Punjab if negotiations weren’t underway for a long time?” asked Haider. “Do you think there would be continued violence in all provinces except Punjab if they weren’t already talking for a long time?”

The opposition dismisses the N league’s election triumph too, not just because of evidence of rigging, but also because terrorists publically allowed only two parties to campaign, threatening and attacking more secular parties.

Governments tend to respond to demands of forces that bring them to power. And when it is powerful lobbies and agencies, Haider believes, it is little surprise that they become isolated from the people, and make reckless decisions that alienate institutions.

It is now becoming clear that opposition parties did not obstruct the APC to let hawks in the government try the negotiations option to their satisfaction. And the way the government has allowed the religious right to take over the national narrative, there is little doubt of the ruling party’s closeness to the Islamist lobby, including the TTP.

“If you remember, Makhdoom Amin Faheem congratulated the agencies along with the prime minister when the new government was formed”, he added.

These concerns now seem coming true. Since coming to power the N government has gone out of its way to lend legitimacy to recognised enemies of the state. It has also favoured concessions towards India even as New Delhi refuses to reciprocate, intensifies water wars with Pakistan, and continues to aid militants operating in the country. And perception that it is humiliating Gen Musharraf for personal reasons and to deter future adventures from the army, rather than upholding the constitution, is gaining prominence. All these factors make a showdown with the military inevitable. And Nawaz Sharif’s desire to cement civilian rule might well end up doing exactly the opposite. Trying to find a footing somewhere between idealism and pragmatism, the government seems to think propping up the economy can justify its overreach in other areas. But that too seems increasingly a miscalculation.

If it is indeed his courtiers that continue to push him towards this confrontation, then the only option for Nawaz’s long term survival might be a bold turn around, which must include shuffling some of his staff.

“It is still possible for Nawaz to think long term and mend some of his policies to accommodate the army’s concerns. But for that he will have to let go of some of the hawks around him, otherwise the military has the means to neutralise him”, concluded Dr Rizvi.