Musharraf – fallen before the fall?

Who isn’t fed up with the one-time strongman?

In case Musharraf’s prosecution does not reach its logical end, this would definitely promote Bonapartist tendencies in the army. While interviewing Nawaz Sharif last year Indian journalist Karan Thapar had asked him if he would sanction a treason trial against Musharraf. Sharif’s reply was “That is not a crime that I can forgive, I think the nation will have to decide as to what the nation wants against him and then it will be left to the judiciary and judges to try and to decide”. Any wincing now would indicate to all and sundry that the PMLN leadership lacks spine.

The government has all the support that it needs to see the trial through. The PML-N enjoys absolute majority in the National Assembly. Its government has further strengthened its position by acquiring the support of several coalition partners. Leaving aside two miniscule and ineffective parliamentary groups comprising MQM and PML-Q, the rest of the opposition that includes PPP and PTI is strongly supportive of Musharraf’s trial. The ruling party will not face any meaningful opposition in Parliament in case it stands behind the court while it passes an independent judgment.

The Supreme Court under former CJ had affirmed unflinching support for democracy. It had made it clear again and again that the chances of the imposition of martial law had been ‘‘blocked once and for all” and judiciary was not ready to provide room to any adventurer. As former CJ Iftikhar Chaudhry put it, “Those days are over when people feared that something would happen overnight.”

The Supreme Court under CJ Gillani has kept the legacy alive. It has taken up suo motu notice of the missing persons case and the delay in Local Bodies elections. In January the SC threw out Musharraf’s review plea against the historic 2009 ruling. This was widely seen as an attempt by the SC to once again shut the doors for adventurism.

The judiciary is aware that under military rule it would lose the independence that it enjoys in a democratic system. It is inconceivable under the circumstances that the apex court would allow any military overthrow. With unanimity between the administration and judiciary the PML-N need not develop cold feet about any presumed clash of the institutions.

Musharraf enjoys little goodwill among servicemen, whether in uniform or retired. Only a handful of ex-servicemen have come out in his support and they are widely known for being the beneficiaries of the dictator’s rule. Former General Aslam Beg and Lt Gen (r) Chishti have understandably condemned the insulting bevaiour of some of the lawyers opposed to Musharraf, but neither objected to the trial.

Musharraf enjoys no public support. Despite all the efforts and funds spent by the APML the former dictator’s supporters have failed to put up any significant show of force. The people would welcome the verdict delivered against Musharraf by the court.

The military leadership is unhappy with Musharraf for returning to Pakistan in disregard of its advice. Out of sheer foolhardiness the former military ruler insisted on facing the courts.

The subsequent lack of nerve shown by the former military ruler has been a constant source of embarrassment for the army. Cowardice is not appreciated by army anywhere in the world. Musharraf’s behaviour since his house arrest must have caused embarrassment to the army. Musharraf’s escapade from Islamabad High Court after orders of his arrest in April last year was an unseemly episode. So were the indirect appeals to army to come to his rescue. The way a panic stricken ex strong man rushed to the AFIC feigning a heart ailment instead of facing the court must have dismayed many who expected valour from a former COAS. The attempt by Musharraf to deliver a tele-address to a gathering of supporters who waited for the speech in a Lahore hotel was foiled by the AFIC management which indicated its unhappiness over the so called patient using the hospital premises for political activities.

In January Defence Secretary Lt General (r) Asif Yasin Malik explained the army’s position on Musharraf’s trial. The army, he said, had no interest in the case. Indirectly expressing dissatisfaction with Musharraf’s insistence on seeking treatment abroad, he maintained that the AFIC was considered one of the best hospitals in the world for cardiac treatment. “The former president should be satisfied with the treatment he is receiving at the AFIC.”

Mushrraf enjoys little goodwill among servicemen, whether in uniform or retired. Only a handful of ex-servicemen have come out in his support and they are widely known for being the beneficiaries of the dictator’s rule. Former General Aslam Beg and Lt Gen (r) Chishti have understandably condemned the insulting bevaiour of some of the lawyers opposed to Musharraf, but neither objected to the trial.

While there is little possibility of any clash of institutions in this case, the government should get the provincial assemblies and parliament pass resolutions in support of the ongoing trial. The Senate had already called for Musharraf’s trial before the matter was taken up by the court. Keeping in view the composition of the National Assembly passing a similar resolution would just be a cakewalk.

The two major ex-servicemen organisations, Ex-Servicemen Society (PESS) with Lt Gen (r) Hamid Gul as president and Pakistan Ex-Servicemen Association (PESA) led by Lt Gen(r) Ali Kuli Khan, have rejected Musharraf’s claims of support within the army. The two former generals said in a joint statement that Musharraf was trying to implicate the army as an abettor of high treason for ulterior motives. The army had no role in his violation of Article 6 and the members of PESS and PESA considered declaration of emergency and sacking of judges as acts for which Musharraf alone is responsible.

Musharraf’s unrealistic hopes for support from the US, Britain and Saudi Arabia have been dashed to the ground. Washington is known for ditching stooges after they have lost their utility. For the West Musharraf is a non-entity now. Moreover it badly needs the PML-N government’s support during and after the departure of NATO troops from Afghanistan. The Saudis, too, need Sharif’s help in pursuing their peculiar agenda in the Gulf region. None is in a position to put pressure on Sharif for the sake of a fallen dictator who is of little use to them now.

The government has not proceeded with the trial as it had promised earlier. While there is little possibility of any clash of institutions in this case, the government should get the provincial assemblies and parliament pass resolutions in support of the ongoing trial. The Senate had already called for Musharraf’s trial before the matter was taken up by the court. Keeping in view the composition of the National Assembly passing a similar resolution would just be a cakewalk.

The PML-N made a wrong move in the Punjab Assembly by seeking the passage of a resolution that the opposition thought was more in praise of the PML-N government than in support of the ongoing trial. Had it associated the PPP and PTI in the formulation of the resolution, it would have been passed with a thundering majority in all the four assemblies.