The likely impact of the Ukraine crisis

Re-emergence of Cold War era like alliances and realignments

For anyone interested in unraveling the conundrum of the ongoing Ukraine crisis and Russian blitzkrieg in Georgia in August 2008, the memoirs written by former US Secretary of Defence Robert Gates provide the right clues. Dilating on US-Russia relation in the post-Cold War era, he writes, “When Russia was weak in the 1990s and beyond we did not take Russian interests seriously and engaged in needless provocations. The efforts to bring Georgia and Ukraine into NATO was monumental provocation and NATO expansion was a political rather than a carefully considered strategic act.”

Russia intervened militarily in Ossetia and Abkhazia when the pro-west Georgian troop launched a military offensive in those area to reclaim it from the de-facto control of a Russian backed internationally un-recognized government which came into being after 1991-92 war between ethnic Georgians and South Ossetians. After the joining of the three Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia in the EU and NATO, attempts were also made to woo other newly independent and Central Asian states to join these entities. Russia perceived the eastward expansion of NATO as a security threat for itself. Though Georgia has no significant oil or gas reserves of its own its territory is a transit route for the pipeline which provides one million barrels of oil to Western and Central Europe from Azerbaijan’s Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli oil fields. The pipeline allows the West to reduce its dependence on Middle Eastern oil bypassing Russia and Iran; the reason why US supported Georgia.

Ukraine also belongs to NATO’s Partnership For Peace Programme. The ousted Ukranian President Yanukovich won the 2010 presidential election campaigning on a platform of close ties with Russia. He however continued talks with the European Union on a trade association agreement but had to abandon it under pressure from Russia. This move provoked protests in Kiev which came to be known as Euromaidan. The crackdown on the protestors resulted in the worst bloodshed in the history of the country. Yanukovich was finally forced to step down in February 2014. However his ouster has created new divisions between the eastern and western halves of the country, notwithstanding the fact that transitional leaders in Kiev have promised to form a national unity government and hold elections on May 25, 2014. The Crimean parliament has asserted greater autonomy and voted in March 16 referendum to decide whether Crimea should become part of Russia or remain part of Ukraine with enhanced local powers.

Russian President Vladmir Putin maintains that Russia is trying to protect ethnic Russians (59% of Crimean population) who feel threatened by the lawlessness spreading east from the capital. Putin stresses that Moscow is not imposing its will but rather supporting the free choice of the local population, drawing parallels with the support Western countries gave to Kosovo’s 2008 declaration of independence from Serbia. Russia already had eleven thousand troops stationed in Crimea which have been joined by another five thousand. Ukraine also has thousands of troops on the peninsula. The US and its allies say Russian actions constitute a breach of the international law. Russia has rejected charges and has called for Ukraine to return to the terms of the February 21, 2014, agreement between opposition leaders and Yanukovich that permitted him to stay in the office as the head of a national unity government while elections were planned.

Ukraine is an economic partner that Russia would like to incorporate into its proposed Eurasian Union, a customs union due to be formed in January 2015 whose likely members include Kazakhstan, Belarus and Armenia. Ukraine also plays an important role in Russia’s energy trade. Russia transmits 80% of its gas to European markets through Ukrainian pipelines. Ukraine itself is a major market for Russian gas. Militarily, Ukraine is also important to Russia as a buffer state. Russian Black Sea Fleet is based in the Crimean port city of Sevastopol under a bilateral agreement between the two states which has was extended up 2042 in 2010 in exchange for 30% reduction in the prices of gas sold to Ukraine. Russia considers EU’s efforts to expand eastward as an alarming move that could open the doors for an array of Western institutional ties at her expense.

The US and its allies have already announced some sanctions against Russia likely to be followed with more and an implied threat to terminate Russian membership of G-8 to pressurise Russia to back off but Russia remains adamant and unwavering on the position that it has taken. The interim Prime Minister of Ukraine has met President Obama who told him that the US and its allies would not hesitate from using military might to stop Russia in its tracks. This could be yet another manifestation of the saber-rattling that is going on because the US and its allies are neither in a position to provoke a military confrontation with Russia nor can they afford it due to the worsening economic conditions. But the stalemate over the Ukraine crisis could well be the beginning of another Cold War era and emergence of new alliances on the global stage and realignments in the region.

The confrontation could bring Russia and China together in thwarting US moves to maintain its military presence in the area, especially Afghanistan. China has of late evinced great interest in promoting regional solution to the strife in Afghanistan. Russia is opposed to the presence of US troops on Afghan soil authorised by a bilateral agreement between US and Afghanistan and would rather prefer a UN sanctioned arrangement. The possibility of Russian-China nexus also seems feasible in view of the Chinese angst over US’ growing interest in the South China Sea and latter’s support for Japan over disputes between the two countries. They may well propose the formation of an alliance of the regional countries to ensure security in Afghanistan instead of agreeing to US’ presence in the region for another ten years.

In the event of such an eventuality, Pakistan will become the pivot for resolution of conflict in Afghanistan and also a part of the security force for maintaining peace in Afghanistan along with contributions from other regional and friendly countries and in the process of rebuilding Afghanistan. This would promote regional peace and security and open the doors for a shared regional economic prosperity that has remained hostage to the volatile conditions in Afghanistan. Pakistan has already made a paradigm shift in its foreign policy which lays greater emphasis on building regional linkages and improving relations with neighbours.