The Afghan-India nexus

Why do Afghans look at Pakistan with suspicion and distrust?

The right wing groups in Pakistan look at Afghan-India relations as a conspiracy against the country. They maintain that the nexus has enabled India to set up a string of consulates in Afghan towns bordering Pakistan from where Indian agents infiltrate into Balochistan and other trouble spots. The religious parties blame Indian agents for the ongoing deadly terrorist attacks. Till recently these parties would downplay claims of ownership of suicide bombings by the TTP, sometime raising doubts about the identity of their spokesmen while holding the RAW responsible for every major act of terrorism.

Karzai is often portrayed by them as an Indian proxy. The extremist fringe has no answer as to how to reduce the Afghan hostility or balance the Indian influence in Afghanistan. Some belonging to the lot conclude that the jihadi outfits are the only answer.

In order to understand the nature of Afghan-India friendship and to ensure that it does not harm Pakistan it is necessary to put the issue in the perspective of the whole gamut of Pak-Afghan-India relations.

The participation of so many countries would ensure that no single power controls Afghanistan’s policies or uses it as its proxy in the region. This is good for Afghanistan and for the entire region.

Afghanistan sees Pakistan as a source of threat to its integrity. Kabul therefore seeks support from India, a country more powerful than Pakistan and less likely to threaten it as unlike Pakistan it shares no border with it.

Pakistan and India have a number of unresolved disputes which have led them to fight two major wars and a bloody armed conflict in Kargil. India is willing to provide economic and military support to Afghanistan. Being aware of the potential of trade and economic relations with Pakistan New Delhi hesitates to go beyond a certain limit to provide military equipment to Afghanistan. Even this is seen by the extremist fringe in Pakistan as a security threat.

The three countries have a lot to lose by letting mutual bitterness proliferate. They have a lot to gain if they remove their differences and cooperate with each other.

Why do Afghans look at Pakistan with suspicion and distrust?

First, there are disputes that the two countries have inherited from a past characterised by wars, invasions and counter invasions. Second, there are major irritants of a more recent origin. If the later are properly addressed, the issues left by history can be dealt with through mutual accommodation over time.

It is in Pakistan’s benefit to initiate the long delayed military operation in North Waziristan. The operation would build confidence in Afghanistan and encourage it to reciprocate by a similar action against the TTP elements inside its territory.

Problems left by history include territories lost by Afghanistan to Ranjit Singh and British India and subsequently inherited by Pakistan. These include the dispute over the Durand Line which has divided the Pushtun tribes. Neither the Afghan government nor the Taliban are willing to accept the Durand Line. Even the TTP has said that it does not accept the national borders imposed by the West. .

Much more important however are the more recent irritants.

These are of two types. First, the support provided by the ISI and Pakistan military to a number of militant groups since 1980. The militant groups were meant to foist on the neighbouring country a government of Islamabad’s choice.

The second irritant is the attitude of successive Pakistani governments which have treated Afghanistan as their backyard. The Pakistan Army also continues to nurture the goal of seeking strategic depth on the other side of the border.

Kabul seeks support from India, a country more powerful than Pakistan and less likely to threaten it as unlike Pakistan it shares no border with it.

Both the complaints are mostly genuine. No country is likely to be considered friendly if it allows militant groups to use its territory to launch cross border attacks on its neighbor and inflict injuries on its troops and civilians. And if the groups are nourished with the express purpose of using them as proxies to subjugate the neighbor or dictate to it this is bound to be considered an act of war

The Taliban, described by Gen (Retd) Nasirullah Babar as ‘my children’, and launched by the Pakistani establishment are one example. The others include Haqqani network which continues to play havoc inside Afghanistan. Then there are foreign militants in FATA, particularly in North Waziristan affiliated with Al Qaeda, who launch attacks inside Afghanistan. For years Kabul demanded military action against the elements hostile to it before it started looking for agents among the Pakistani Taliban and providing it funds and shelter.

It is in Pakistan’s benefit to initiate the long delayed military operation in North Waziristan. The operation would build confidence in Afghanistan and encourage it to reciprocate by a similar action against the TTP elements inside its territory like Mullah Fazlullah and Omar Khalid Khorasani.

The army has played with the idea of strategic depth for decades. If stronger countries were allowed to seek strategic depth in neighbouring lands, the smaller states like Afghanistan are bound to feel threatened.

Anyone coming to power in Afghanistan irrespective of whether he is a warlord, a Taliban, or an elected leader would seek the help of a powerful country in the region to balance Pakistan in case those ruling Islamabad fail to respect Afghanistan’s sovereignty, treat it as a fifth province of the country or adopt a patronising attitude towards the smaller neighbour.

How far will India go to fulfill the Afghan demands?

The three countries have a lot to lose by letting mutual bitterness proliferate. They have a lot to gain if they remove their differences and cooperate with each other.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai was in India in May last year in the hope of securing heavy weapons to beef up his security forces after the international troops pull out in 2014. During the visit Afghan officials wanted tanks and heavy artillery to boost land-based firepower and helicopters and jets to bolster air capabilities. But India stopped short of sending lethal weapons on account of Pakistan’s sensitivities.

India eyes expansion of trade with Pakistan as well as seeking access to the Central Asian republics through land route. It has meanwhile also tried to develop an alternate route through the Iranian port of Chahbhar. In case Pakistan and India can agree on non-discriminatory market access and start implementing the agreement on greater trade through land route it will open the way for lessening the hostilities between India and Pakistan. Pakistan, India and Afghanistan will all benefit from the opportunities created by peace and friendship.

Better understanding between India and Pakistan would put new life in SAARC while it would also enable Pakistan, India and Afghanistan to benefit from Central Asia’s resources of gas and power, from opportunities of trade made possible by better road and rail network and travel facilities. The confidence generated would weaken the extremist forces in the neighbouring countries and strengthen and expand the peace lobbies. This would create a vested interest on both sides for peace which would help resolve the long standing disputes between India and Pakistan through talks.

Kabul needs the support of not only the US or India but the entire region and beyond, including Pakistan, China, Russia, Iran and Turkey to build its economy and society. The participation of so many countries would ensure that no single power controls Afghanistan’s policies or uses it as its proxy in the region. This is good for Afghanistan and for the entire region.