After the attack in North Waziristan
Aziz-ud-Din Ahmad
‘The only thing harder than putting a new idea into the military mind is getting an old idea out of it’.
–B.H. Liddel Hart
Any opinion poll conducted today in Pakistan would show a vast majority of the population supporting an all-out military action against the TTP and other terrorist groups. Such is the pressure of public opinion that even a die-hard opponent of an operation like Imran Khan has made a volte face and declared that he stands behind the army, and the action. He has also most aptly called for an urgent and effective action against the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ)
After the horrendous attacks on the Shia community, the polio vaccination teams, police and the army and the killing of several other people like the two young boys who died on their way to the college in Rawalpindi the widespread sentiment is, enough is enough.
It is time the military leadership rethinks its policy towards the militant groups. The series of statements from responsible quarters that the air strikes were not the start of an offensive but just a ‘retaliatory action’ indicate the continuation of the same strategy. This shows that the attack was meant only to release pressure within the army after the Bannu and ‘Pindi attacks. Thus North Waziristan, the only one of the seven agencies which has not seen a military operation, might continue to remain a safe haven for local and foreign terrorists justifying its description as the center of world terrorism.
The explanation generally given for army inaction is that it does not want to annoy the Haqqani network based in the tribal agency. The Haqqanis are considered a strategic asset, which could help protect the country’s interests after the international forces withdraw from Afghanistan. Militant groups supported by the agencies in Afghanistan have never acted as cat’s paw in the past and it is vain to hope they would in future. Irrespective of the support and protection the government provides them they would invariably take decisions that suit them when they are back in Afghanistan.
Pakistan tried hard in the 1980s 1990s but failed to set up a government of its liking in Kabul. A number of the ISI trained and financed militant groups turned into ‘enemies’ when it suited them. Mullah Umar’s government refused to extradite the criminals wanted by Pakistan. And the Mulla turned down Pakistan’s request to chuck OBL out of the Afghanistan.
There is a need to learn from the past mistakes and not pin hopes on any militant group. Left to itself and treated as equal, Afghanistan would take decisions forced by economic and geographical compulsions that would require normal relations rather than hostility against Pakistan. Even at the height of tensions during the Zahir Shah era, Pakistan was ensured a peaceful Western border as it fought 1965 and 1971 wars. Hostilities develop only when Afghanistan is treated not as an independent country but as Pakistan’s backyard. Military thinking should now be replaced by diplomacy.
While Pakistan has declined to take action against the Haqqani group and concluded a peace agreement with Gul Bahadur’s network, what have the two done in return? Both looked the other way as TTP leadership, after its rout in South Waziristan, took shelter in their Agency where it set up its command and control system. Subsequently the TTP allies including the Punjabi Taliban, LeJ and Jaish-e-Mohammad also sneaked into North Waziristan. The Chechen and Arab fighters and members of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) too found a haven there. Militants fleeing from operations in various parts of FATA too made a beeline to North Waziristan where they planned attacks on army.
Hakimullah Mehsud lived with his family in the Agency and was later killed here in a drone attack. The TTP set up training camps in NW from where it dispatched terrorists to conduct some of the deadliest attacks on the civilian population, military installations and the armed forces all over Pakistan. Adnan Rashid, the mastermind of the DIK jailbreak also operated from here. He also brought his family to the new-found sanctuary. Media had in fact reported his death in the air strike on Monday. Witnesses in Miramshah however said the militant commander, who had escaped Bannu Jail last April, was seen buying Peshawari chappal in the town’s marketplace. He was thus allowed by the Haqqani and Gul Bahadur groups to cock a snook at the army.
Mullah Gul Bahaur banned the polio vaccination in 2012 in violation of the government policy. “Our fears have now turned into reality,” said the head of the WHO’s Polio Eradication Initiative 15 months later, as 10 new cases of the crippling virus were reported in North Waziristan on Tuesday. The new cases brought the total number of confirmed cases to an appalling 25 from the tribal agency alone.
Both the groups acted as silent spectators as terrorists ambushed army convoys, raided army posts and at least on one occasion beheaded Pakistani soldiers.
One has to grant that both the groups have avoided launching attacks in Pakistan and attacking the Pakistan army. There is however no guarantee of their continuing the policy once the US led NATO forces are out of Afghanistan. It is significant that the Afghan Taliban do not accept the Durnad Line as international border. The TTP leadership holds a similar position. In his interview to the Gulf News published on December 16, 2013, the TTP spokesman Shahidullah Shahid maintained that his organization does not accept national borders. “We are one and will always remain one with the Afghan Taliban. We don’t believe nor accept the borders and we feel these have been imposed on us”.
It would by no means be a cakewalk for the Afghan Taliban to occupy Kabul in a few months. Keeping in view the concerns of the international community and the countries in the region they will have to fight a long and uncertain civil war to capture the country’s capital. On account of their mutual disdain for international borders, the Afghan Taliban and the TTP are more likely to join hands and set up their Islamic caliphate in the areas along both sides of the Durand Line encompassing Pakistan’s tribal region. The demand by the TTP to withdraw the army from the tribal agencies clearly indicates their intentions.
It would be easier to establish the writ of the state in the now lawless NW while the Afghan Taliban fight the US-led NATO troops than in 2015 when the army might have to fight both who reject international borders particularly the one between Afghanistan and Pakistan.
It is simply inconceivable to stabilize the other six agencies in FATA as well as Swat, won from the militants at a great price that both civilians and army had to pay, as long as NW remains a safe haven for the TTP and a host of other terrorist groups.
What is needed on the part of Mian Nawaz Sharif is to act like a courageous leader. He must address the National Assembly and reveal the details of the overtures made by his government to the militants and how these failed. He should then call upon the entire nation to stand by the army for a decisive struggle against the militants. He must speak clearly and resolutely.
Declaration of war against the entire lot of militant networks is the need of the hour. Whatever dialogue is to take place should be pursued only after the militants have been given a thorough drubbing and the government can speak from a position of strength.
The noncombatants in NW Agency have to be provided protection and security. They should be encouraged to evacuate to the camps which should be ready. What is more they should be provided sufficient transport for moving to the camps. The federal government should provide them the needed facilities till NW is free of the terrorist curse.
