Afghanistan post 2014, after the US exit
The withdrawal of US-led NATO forces from Afghanistan is likely to be followed by another civil war between the Afghan Taliban, a pre-dominantly Pashtun movement and the Northern Alliance, which include mostly non-Pashtun groups, unless and until there is a political settlement to the lingering Afghan dispute through meaningful negotiations between the United States, Taliban and the Karzai led Afghan government before the American exit from the war-torn country by the end of 2014.
Nonetheless, the signs on ground are not encouraging and they don’t reflect any peace deal happening between the warring parties anytime soon in Afghanistan and thus increase the fears and concerns about more conflict and more bloodshed in the neighboring state with each passing day.
All this brings grave security challenges for Pakistan, which is not only the immediate neighbour but also has stakes in the Afghanistan’s peace and stability higher than any other country in the region as well as across the globe.
Pakistani authorities fully realize the grave impact of any future civil war on its peace and stability and this realization is well reflected in the Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s recent overtures towards Afghanistan, which seek improvement in ties with the neighboring country and also indicate Islamabad’s strong willingness to play its due role for the success of Afghanistan reconciliation process that aims at the durable political settlement to the thorny Afghanistan dispute.
Contacts for peace between the United States and Mullah Omar led Afghan Taliban in Doha, Qatar and the subsequent opening of Taliban office there few months back had led to hope for the peace deal between the two major parties to the conflict but that bonhomie lasted only for days as Afghan President Hamid Karzai raised his objections over the Taliban office and the Doha talks that scuttled the whole process.
Off late, there have been no contacts between the US and the Taliban or at least on surface it seems so. Even, if there were any ‘behind the scene’ efforts being made they didn’t seem to be translating in any melting of ice and thus continue the fight and battle between the US led NATO forces and Taliban insurgents.
This grim situation doesn’t auger well for Pakistan’s supporting efforts for peace and stability in Afghanistan. The success of those peace endeavors would not only ensure good friendly ties between Islamabad and Kabul but also help in securing peace and stability in Pakistan’s own border regions.
Pakistani border areas, also known as tribal regions and especially the North Waziristan agency is currently in turmoil with Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and its affiliated groups targeting the security forces once again on regular basis and killing the soldiers and officers in the process.
If peace returned to war-torn Afghanistan that would give enough time space to Pakistan’s policy makers to concentrate on its own frontier regions and deal in a focused manner with the militants there either through dialogue or military offensives.
However, if it’s the other way round and as it is feared another round of war erupts between the Taliban and Northern Alliance with their regional backers also springing into action then Pakistan too would have too much on its plate and hence, would make it more difficult for it to focus fully on its tribal regions where the local Taliban would be more emboldened and more willing to take on the Pakistani security forces.
It is a well known fact that Pakistan has been weary of India’s growing influence in Afghanistan and in the past it has been sluggish as for its efforts to nudge the Taliban towards peace and reconciliation dialogue with the US and Karzai administration due to its fears and concerns about New Delhi’s role in the neighboring state.
However, Islamabad now faces changed circumstances as the US and its NATO allies are all set to leave Afghanistan and hand over the responsibility of peacekeeping to the Afghan security forces in months not years.
If there were any peace deal with the Taliban before the end of 2014, the US would leave war-battered Afghanistan with high hopes for lasting stability there that in turn would also have positive impact on global peace and stability. However, no peace deal with the Taliban would not only be worrisome for the US and the rest of western world but also bring enormous challenges for Pakistani policy makers.
The US is currently focused on securing a bilateral security agreement with Kabul, a deal that would cover the residual presence of US troops in Afghanistan but what is needed more is to accelerate the efforts aimed at bringing the Taliban to the table of negotiations.
Pakistan also needs to impress upon the Taliban to get engaged with the US and Afghan government in peace talks and try to convince them about the catastrophic future events in Afghanistan in case no end was brought to the fight and war.
Peace in Afghanistan guarantees peace and stability in Pakistani tribal areas and vice versa and its implications need to be understood in its totality.
The writer is an Islamabad based journalist. He can be reached at [email protected].
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