Hope and trepidation as the country enters 2014
The year 2013 began with little hope and several apprehensions. In January there were reports about Tahirul Qadri’s march which made many raise questions about the future of the elections. There were also clashes on the LoC and the beheading of an Indian soldier which cast an ominous shadow over the prospects of talks between the neighbouring countries.
However as the year 2013 proceeded, there were major changes in Pakistan of which some were historic. The first peaceful transfer of power from one elected government to another inspired confidence in the strength of democracy. The talks between the DGMOs of India and Pakistan have revived hopes of peace in South Asia. The prospects for the year 2014 meanwhile look brighter.
In 2013, the entire political and military leadership was changed.
The PPP government which had ruled for five years was replaced by the PML-N administration through elections under an independent election commission that had been formed in accordance with the guidelines provided in the 18th amendment.
The PML-N government which enjoys absolute majority in the NA does not need the kind of unprincipled alliances the PPP was forced to enter into on account of its weak position in the National Assembly. Nawaz Sharif is therefore in a position to take courageous steps to implement major decisions which are the need of the hour.
Will the PML-N government bring about the change in the civil military relations that Sharif had promised before assuming the office of the prime minister? Will he be able to turn the army into ‘an attached department of the federal government’ and act as the army chief’s ‘boss’, as he told Karan Thapar in May?
Will Sharif be able to persuade the army and the agencies to help improve Pak-India relations in 2014?
There is now a new COAS and a new Chairman Joint Chief of Staff. Gen Raheel Sharif has already brought about a major reshuffle in the army hierarchy. Despite the support for democracy extended by Kayani, army continued to formulate the policies regarding India, Kashmir, Afghanistan and the US. Policies concerning the militant organisations also fell under the army’s jurisdiction. Will the army yield the turf it has guarded jealously so far from the civilian government? The issue is going to be on the agenda in 2014.
The elections this year were held under an independent election commission with enhanced powers. It was the first time in the country’s history for an election commission of the type to be formed. The Commission’s subsequent working however gave birth to questions regarding the fairness of the polls in several constituencies. The selection of Fakhruddin G. Ibrahim had been widely hailed but the other four members were accused by some of the parties of having close ties with the PPP or the PML-N. Ibrahim too had to resign soon after the polls amid controversy. Selecting another person with unquestionable integrity as the new CEC is not going to be an easy task when it crops up next year.
With the retirement of former CJ Iftikhar Chaudhry the apex court has entered a new era.
Under Chaudhry the pendulum had swung from the extreme of judicial servility to the executive to judiciary calling the shots and holding the government and its leaders hostage for nearly four years. Perhaps the swing was needed to give a jolt to politicians who considered misuse of authority and recourse to corruption as their birthright. The vacuum created by the politician’s negligence to do their duties was filled by the judiciary which came to the rescue of the people. At times it proved to be a task beyond the judiciary’s competence. Unless a genuinely neutral NAB and empowered and efficient Ombudsmen are in place in the days to come the effects of the jolt are bound to be short lived.
Will there be a rectification of the course of the judiciary now to bring things to the golden mean? The working style of the Supreme Court is changing under the new CJ. Listed cases are taken up first, suo moto cases are dealt with after one pm, and the judges are not passing comments during trial.
Punjab and Sind continue to be ruled as before by PML-N and PPP respectively while Blochistan and Khyber Pukhtunkhwa have new governments.
The new Balochistan administration brings a breath of fresh air in the province. Three issues had bedeviled the province during the last PPP led government. There was mega scale corruption by those ruling the province, deteriorating law and order situation and gross illegalities committed by the law enforcement agencies.
The provincial government has tried to resolve all the three issues. It has made a significant headway in stopping the loot of national kitty by the lawmakers and cabinet members. How long the chief minister can keep the sardars in the PML-N who are his allies under check remains to be seen. The law and order situation has significantly improved, though there is no respite to kidnappings for ransom.
Except for the initial couple of months, no major incidents of terrorism have taken place and the Hazara community feels safer. But the issue of the forced disappearances remains unresolved. There is a reduction in the cases of dumping of dead bodies but the practice has not ended. The standing of the nationalists leading the government will be seriously compromised if the agencies were to continue picking up people in violation of law in 2014 also. The issue can only be resolved with the help of the federal government. Many wait to see if Nawaz Sharif is capable of reining in the law enforcement agencies in Balochistan.
Khyber Pukhtunkhwa has got a youthful and new leadership belonging to the PTI. The voters therefore have high expectations from the government.
Compared to Balochstan, the issue of law and order is less complicated in KP. The province however continues to suffer from the scourge of terrorism. Instead of fighting against the terrorists the provincial government has followed a policy of appeasement. It has wasted its energies on futile exercises like blocking of NATO supply route while it should have focused on fulfilling promises made during the elections. The patwari system remains intact and one no more hears about the promise to have elected police SHOs. Similarly no move has yet been made to construct two mega cities with modern residential facilities at affordable prices promised to the common people of the province by Imran Khan soon after the elections. . The interior Sindh continues to be as badly administered by the PPP, this time single handedly, as during its last tenure. Good news has however come from Karachi. Action has been taken against the gangs of criminals belonging to Lyari as well as against small time criminals. The areas which have been turned into mini Waziristan by the TTP and its affiliates have however yet to be cleared of militants. Similarly no large scale operation has yet been conducted in areas under the influence of ethnic terrorists.
It is easier to arrest 8,942. Much more difficult is to prepare fool proof cases against them which can lead to prosecution. The goal of deweaponising Karachi still eludes the law enforcement agencies.
For the first time in a decade the MQM is in opposition. What is more, its top leader is under pressure from the Scotland Yard on three counts: probe in Imran Farooq’s murder, money laundering and speeches that incite party activists to commit violence. These factors have had a sobering effect on the party. Whether they lead to rebellion against the leadership remains to be seen.
The TTP has a new leader after the killing of Hakimullah Mehsud. With Waliur Rehman already dead Hakimullah’s departure had created a vacuum which Fazlullah is finding hard to fill. Fazlullah belonging to Swat and is thus considered an outsider by the Mehsud tribe which had monopolized TTP leadership so far. Reportedly there is a rift within the TTP on the issue of succession. The factors have led to a comparative lull in terrorist attacks.
The year 2014 will therefore begin with both hope and trepidation.
The writer is a political analyst and a former academic.
