Pakistan might be willing to allow future drone launches, provided it is given substantial control over drone activities and targets, said former director of the Central Intelligence Agency’s (CIA) Counterterrorism Center Robert Grenier.
“Under those circumstances, the politics surrounding the country’s sovereignty might not be a big issue,” he said.
The United States would likely seek approval from future Afghan leaders for most or all of post-withdrawal training activities and counterterrorism activities – possibly including the use of drones, which have been a defining feature of the Obama administration security strategy in far-flung places.
However, the lack of a sizeable US troop presence in Afghanistan could mean that drones become one of the few remaining tools the United States has against militant groups in the region.
Micah Zenko, a fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations think tank, said it would be very difficult to continue the drone programme if Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s successors decide against allowing launches from Afghan soil after foreign troops withdraw.
Central Asian nations that might allow such flights are too distant from likely target areas, while the US military currently has only limited ability to operate drones from ships in the Arabian Sea or elsewhere.
“Short of receiving basing access from a neighbouring state, and overt over flight support from Afghanistan and Pakistan, it would be a very difficult operational risk to conduct drone strikes into Afghanistan or Pakistan,” Zenko said.
