General Raheel and his tightrope walk
General Raheel Sharif, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s surprise choice for the powerful slot of army chief, is seen by many as a professional soldier; a straight-talking, low-profile officer with no political ambitions – a factor that played a key role in his elevation to the office of top commander of Pakistan’s 600,000-plus strong army.
Regardless of how far this observation about the new army chief is correct, he would have to face an array of grave challenges such as how to deal with the menace of terrorism within the country as well as the extension of support to the US-led NATO troops to eliminate this scourge in Afghanistan.
Gen Raheel would also have to take care of renewed tensions with neighbouring nuclear rival India, relations with the US in the aftermath of the withdrawal of its combat troops from Afghanistan, which is slated for December, 2014 and also to keep the balance when it comes to relations between the civilian rulers and military leadership.
His last appointment before assuming the office of army chief was the Inspector General of Training and Evaluation at the General Headquarters, Rawalpindi. He has also served as the head of the Pakistan Military Academy (PMA), Abbottabad.
Gen Raheel’s role in both these important offices was to do the evaluation of army’s doctrines and war strategies. He was supposed to carry out this significant evaluation with the aim of shaping the military’s training programs in line with its future needs and requirements.
Gen Raheel is said to have played an important role in bringing about a change in military planning since 2007 and now the focus of these strategies has been shifted more towards tackling the Taliban-led militancy in the country’s tribal regions rather than the traditional confrontation with India.
A military official, who sought anonymity, said, “It was Gen Sharif, who successfully convinced the army cadres that the gravity of threat to the country’s sovereignty from the Pakistani Taliban is in no way less than the threat posed by New Delhi.”
Gen Raheel has redesigned the important training courses for military in accordance with the challenges of internal threat. The training manuals developed by him to carry out counter-terrorism operations were not earlier a part of the army’s training courses.
These manuals were put into practice by the new army chief during his days at the military academy, Abbottabad. Later, he also introduced anti-terror field exercises for the army cadres.
Hence, it is expected that his past role in evolving new thinking within the ranks and cadres of army would help him confront the serious challenges that lie ahead, including the fight against the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) led insurgency in the tribal regions.
General Raheel’s selection has come at a critical time; Pakistan is struggling to contain violence by militants, who have killed more than 45 thousand civilians and soldiers during the last 10 years.
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“The training manuals developed by him to carry out operations aimed at counter-terrorism were not earlier the part of the army’s training courses.”
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It is not only the grave threat posed by terrorism that stares the general in the face but a renewed border tensions with India and instability in the country’s tribal regions along the frontier with war-torn Afghanistan (specially in the wake of the withdrawal of the bulk of NATO troops from there) are other formidable challenges that the new army chief would have to tackle in the coming months and years.
To many observers, Gen Raheel’s superior skills and ability in dealing with homegrown militancy and terrorism was the major factor considered by the prime minister when naming him the army chief. However, there are others who maintain that it was not the sole or major reason behind his selection to the top army slot and the expectations of civilian rulers that he would stay away from politics were also taken into consideration.
Dr Hasan Askari Rizvi, a noted analyst, opined that perhaps it was Gen Raheel’s low profile that appealed to Prime Minister Nawaz, who was ousted back in 1999 during his second term in office in a military coup carried out by the then Army Chief Pervez Musharraf, who was more of an extrovert.
Dr Rizvi said, “Gen Raheel comes from a military family, with his soldier father and his elder brother honored with the highest military award. Hailing from Lahore is another link with the prime minister. Gen Raheel has no political links, and he is little known outside the army and that could have been a big plus in the eyes of the PM.”
The PM, Dr Rizvi thinks, may have been looking for someone who was totally focused on military affairs instead of having an inclination towards indulgence in politics.
On challenges that the new army chief is likely to confront, Dr. Rizvi said, “General Raheel’s biggest challenge would be how to deal with home grown militants, how to clear the tribal regions and how to move along with the civilian leadership on this particular issue.”
Dr Rizvi said, “Another challenge would be how to tackle the cross-border militants’ movement on the frontier with Afghanistan in the wake of NATO’s withdrawal from Afghanistan.”
These views regarding the TTP-led militancy is shared by some former military officials as well.
“Pakistan is facing difficult times and the country is in a warlike situation. It will be a big challenge for the new army chief to prove that he is the wartime leader,” said Brigadier (Retd) Shaukat Qadir.
Matters are compounded by the fact that there is a behind-closed-doors consensus that there are slim chances of any success for the peace dialogue with the militants.
These people are of view that the government’s talks for peace with TTP was a very difficult task even when its former hardliner chief Hakimullah Mehsud was alive and not killed in a US drone strike. Now that he has been replaced by Maulvi Fazullah, who is even more of a hardliner and staunchly anti-Pakistan, it has become a tougher, more taxing and challenging approach.
Analysts like Dr Rizvi are mindful of these issues and they caution that the new army leadership would have to face difficulty in dealing with the politicians in case the military commanders concluded at any time in future that use of force is the option to resort to instead of treading the path of what could end up as futile negotiations with the militants.
“Say if Gen Raheel and other military leadership come to conclusion that the militant groups shall be dealt with force, then how is the political leadership to be dealt with, keeping in view the current division among politicians on how to tackle militancy, with some favoring the use of force and the others opposing it? This will be the serious challenge,” Rizvi said.
During the tenure of former army chief General (retd) Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, the army leadership seemed to have distanced itself much from politics and during Kayani’s last days in office, the Nawaz government even announced to launch a trial for treason by former military ruler Gen (retd) Musharraf for the imposition of emergency rule in 2007.
However, even that development seemed to have stirred no anxiety within the ranks of army. Some observers believe, however, that the calm is only for show and that beneath that, many among the military cadres didn’t like the move against their former chief by the incumbent government.
Whether that is true or not, Musharraf’s trial would be another challenge for the current chief.
The prime minister has time and again vowed to work for the improvement of relations with India and his foreign policy managers, like Sartaj Aziz, advisor to the prime minister on foreign affairs and national security, have been working on that front for months now.
Mindful of serious economic challenges, the PM and his financial aides are also trying to improve relations with important world capitals, like Washington. This is being done even in the face of a strong, ongoing anti-drone campaign by Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) for which its chief Imran Khan has called for the blockade of NATO supplies in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province.
Pakistan’s relations with Afghanistan is also one of major foreign policy fronts for the Nawaz government and his recent visit to Kabul illustrates that the PM wants to mitigate the deep mistrust between Islamabad and Kabul and bring the two countries close to each other.
The military leadership is also a stakeholder when it comes to Pakistan’s relations with all these countries. The army is a partner of the US-led NATO troops in the global anti-terrorism campaign. Then we have decades’ long history of animosity with neighboring India and the military commanders are also weary of the reported New Delhi-Kabul nexus in fomenting trouble in Pakistani tribal regions and Balochistan province.
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“Some serious issues are still there such as the ‘case of missing persons’. And it would be yet another challenge for the new army chief to deal with the judiciary and see to it that no confrontation erupts between the key state institutions.”
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So it is also to be seen how the new military leadership moves along with the present civilian rulers when it comes to endeavors aimed at forging friendly ties with these three important countries.
To some observers, the army commanders are not against these efforts aimed at improvement of ties with New Delhi, Kabul and Washington but they only want the civilian rulers to move with care and avoid any unnecessary speed and haste.
Lastly, the new army chief would also have to see how to deal with the judiciary and the media. For decades, these remained dormant but now things have changed. They are both playing a far more vibrant role than they ever have.
Gen Kayani’s tenure as army chief didn’t see any serious confrontation between the army, judiciary and media, unlike the troubled years of Musharraf’s rule. However, some serious issues still remain, such as the ‘case of missing persons’. And it would be yet another challenge for the new army chief to deal with the judiciary and see to it that no confrontation erupts between the key state institutions.
Shaiq Hussain is an Islamabad based journalist. He can be reached at [email protected].
