Fans who have followed this series so far may want to sit down before reading the following sentence: rain is not expected to affect the second Twenty20.
By even Sri Lankan monsoon standards, New Zealand’s tour has been a miserably soggy one. Fewer than half the scheduled overs have been played, and two of the four matches were washed out. Even the games that produced results did not avoid controversy. Sri Lanka were hampered by a wet ball in their loss in Hambantota, and a irrepressible Nathan McCullum was denied the chance to chase unlikely victory by bad light, in Dambulla.
So in many ways, the whole tour rests on this final match – as long as the weather forecast proves accurate. If Sri Lanka win it, they can claim to have had the better of their opposition, as they were expected to do. A New Zealand victory, meanwhile, will be a coup, and a substantial boost to their confidence ahead of their next subcontinent assignment: the World Twenty20 in Bangladesh, four months hence.
The thorniest of the visitors’ obstacles is perhaps Sri Lanka’s bowling. Almost every member of the hosts’ attack feels comfortable at Pallekele, and they have won all but one of their seven completed matches at the venue. In that time, Lasith Malinga and Ajantha Mendis have taken five-wicket hauls, and Nuwan Kulasekara has carved out a bowling average better than his overall figures.
New Zealand will hope, though, that their own attack, which possesses the type of seam bowlers who have done well at Pallekele, can get through a daunting top four and into that less steady middle order. It is what they have talked about doing all tour, a plan that they have found difficult to put in practice, as many other sides have, in the recent past.
Form guide
(last five completed matches, most recent first)
Sri Lanka: WLLWW
New Zealand: WWLWL
Team news
It is unlikely Sri Lanka will try anything fancy in this match, and will instead play its best XI, with eyes on that trophy. The major question is whether Kusal Perera will get a match, which Dinesh Chandimal suggested he is likely to do. If he does not play, Mahela Jayawardene is likely to open the innings and Lahiru Thirimanne will remain in the middle order.
Sri Lanka (probable): 1 Tillakaratne Dilshan, 2 Kusal Perera/Lahiru Thirimanne, 3 Kumar Sangakkara (wk), 4 Mahela Jayawardene, 5. Angelo Mathews, 6. Dinesh Chandimal (capt), 7. Thisara Perera, 8. Nuwan Kulasekara, 9. Sachithra Senanayake, 10. Lasith Malinga, 11. Ajantha Mendis
An injury to allrounder James Neesham’s finger means he is ruled out of this match, which may clear the path for fast bowler Adam Milne’s return. Anton Devcich has not fired with the bat this tour, and Hamish Rutherford will be pushing for a place again, while Neil Broom will likely replace Rob Nicol in the top order.
New Zealand (probable): 1 Anton Devcich/Hamish Rutherford, 2 Tom Latham, 3 Neil Broom, 4 Grant Elliott, 5 Colin Munro, 6 Luke Ronchi (wk), 7 James Neesham, 8 Nathan McCullum, 9 Andrew Ellis, 10 Kyle Mills (capt), 11 Mitchell McClenaghan
