Of the Taliban and drones

The Taliban cannot be allowed to attack Afghanistan either

New drone paradigm announced, another drone strike. Despite the United States President Barack Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry announcing a “tighter, more efficient” drone programme last week, another drone has hit North Waziristan. Unconfirmed reports claim that the second-in-command of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan Waliur Rehman and three other Taliban militants died in the attack. From the outset it does not appear a breach of the new drone plan announced by US authorities, which claimed to “only target those members of Al-Qaeda that pose an immediate risk to the US,” but questions can still be asked. With both Kerry and Pakistani authorities verbally committed to bringing the Taliban to the negotiating table, how would the process go ahead with attacks on the Taliban leadership ongoing? The announcement by the TTP of suspension of the proposed talks after Rehman’s killing creates problems for the incumbent governments in both Khyber Pakthunkhwa and Islamabad; both committed to the talks paradigm and opposed to the drone programme.

The trouble for the incumbent Pakistani government is that the North Waziristan region still remains out of its grip. The fact that wanted militants such as Waliur Rehman were able to use safe houses in North Waziristan opens the area to more strikes. Rehman, if it may be recalled, was wanted in connection with attacks on US and NATO personnel across the Afghan border and an attack on seven US counter-terrorism agents and security contractors in Khost on December 30, 2009. Since then a $5 million bounty had been put on his head by the US government. Surely it is not good for Pakistan’s image and negotiating position that wanted militants are found on its territory. While the Foreign Office has again cried foul and pointed to the hatred the drones create and that they lie in breach of international law, the rhetoric from the FO reads hollow if Pakistan is unable to ensure its territory does not house those engaged in attacks across the border.

On ground, the Pakistani army is in the midst of another offensive in the Kurram Valley, where at least 100 unnamed militants have been reported to have been killed and several insurgent hideouts destroyed in the last three weeks. With the army keeping the TTP under pressure on one side, it will allow the next government to begin negotiations with the Taliban from a position of strength. But, as Wednesday’s drone strike has shown, Pakistani negotiators will have to ensure that the TTP agrees not to attack both targets in Pakistan and Afghanistan. It is a difficult negotiating position to take and not all the security apparatus is expected to be on board with it. With the drone threat set to continue, the claims of some Pakistani politicians that they would shoot down drones shall be tested if such an agreement is not found – and quick. They only way to stop drones is for the Pakistani government to establish its complete writ in the tribal areas – and this is not an easy task.