In change there is hope!
“I am so proud to be Pakistani”, said Ayesha Baigmohamed, a Pakistani-American based in Washington DC, five minutes into the ride from Dulles Airport earlier this week. “Don’t get me wrong”, she said, “I am privileged to be American, but yes after this election, I am really proud to be Pakistani.” This sentiment has universal echo in Pakistan.
Taking this further, I was privileged to attend a distinguished gathering at the Atlantic Council, graciously hosted by Shuja Nawaz, whom I unfortunately did not have the pleasure of meeting as I had to leave early. The principal speakers at the event directed at discussing the recent elections and their anticipated impact on the Pakistan scene were Dr Maleeha Lodhi, via Skype from Islamabad, Riaz Mohammad Khan, former foreign secretary and Mohsin Khan, former IMF Director. Opinion makers in DC and Pakistani-Americans attended the event. Among the attendees was Fauzia Saeed of Islamabad, on a book launching tour of her new book based on the rigours faced by women in our environment.
Maleeha is a greatly admired and dear friend. As anticipated she started the meeting with a profound and well-structured discourse covering every aspect of the recent situation and emphasized upon the difference in calibre of governance that the change will bring. She focused on the benefits a Nawaz-led dispensation, considering the elections provided him the simple majority to form government enabling him to deal with critical issues without having to barter or negotiate with coalition partners. At the same time she was precise in warning that being out of office for a long time would require Nawaz Sharif to be cerebral in setting goals, selecting personnel and putting aside personal sentiments in achieving success.
There were two significant points she raised which I believe require attention. First, she said that this election has indicated that the base of Pakistani politics would move from the rural to the urban scene. Perhaps she was overcome with euphoria at the election turnout. Let me say I disagree with this statement based not simply on the disenfranchisement of the bulk of the population but on the fact that the majority of urban Pakistan has no idea of how the people of the rural areas exist. If this were to happen Pakistan would suffer irreparable damage. As it is, rural Pakistan is severely under developed and government must focus on horizontal fiscal equalization to ensure more inclusive development. Failing this the march on the urban centres would become so great that infrastructure could never cope. I would therefore hope that this assessment is incorrect.
The second point is definitely debatable. When asked during the Q&A that followed: what Zardari would do, she said, “He should contact his travel agent”. Setting popular sentiment aside, one must not forget that President Zardari has certain significant political assets that require logical consideration. First of these is the majority for the next three years in the Senate. Second the large vote in Sindh, with Nawaz barely on the board, the converse of the situation in the Punjab. Third and the most important fact is that Zardari has the numbers to make Imran Khan the leader of the opposition. Considering the number of votes won by Imran’s losing candidates in the Punjab, he is undoubtedly a serious player and, hospital call notwithstanding, will want to build on this much to Nawaz’s discomfort. Add to this the fact that Zardari literally handed Nawaz the election by ensuring the PPP’s pitiful election campaign and by finally deciding at a critically late juncture to follow court orders and give up the two offices.
So to completely and quickly write him off is premature. He has proven to be a wily politician and pulled many a trick from his bag. Perhaps they are all used up and this may be one too many and prove difficult to pull off. We will have an answer soon enough.
Riaz Mohammad Khan’s rendering of the foreign policy and administrative necessities and realities was both expansive and direct. He believes as do most rational and progressive Pakistanis that improved ties with India, and more importantly trade with India, is of absolute essence. In driving home the point he emphasized that the army no longer holds this fact taboo and is more open to positive developments. On the ‘drone’ factor and the US participation in Pakistan’s development, he advised the new government to continue to work hard in developing relations to mutual advantage.
His views that drone strikes are not likely to just “go away”, are by and large correct. In my opinion, a significant fact that the ‘anti-drone’ lobby seems to conveniently forget is that the collateral damage being caused to civilian population is no different to the damage to innocent civilian lives and those of military personnel and installations being caused by ruthless and cruel terror attacks on the Pakistani population by the various factions of the Taliban. Therefore in striving to pressurise the US to stop drone attacks are they ensuring a stoppage to terror attacks? If so, they must reveal the methodology. To take it a step further, should our leaders not be absolutely honest instead of selfishly playing with emotions and reveal that there is precious little we can do if the drone attacks are to continue.
His view that election results portray Nawaz as a leader of the majority Punjab province is not entirely incorrect, although Nawaz does have the largest number of seats in Balochistan and a reasonable number in KP with Sindh being the least represented. He opined, in order to overcome this deficit in the Federal government, Nawaz must build consensus overall and in particular in Sindh. This will certainly be an extremely sensitive issue. The new government must provide a level playing field in Sindh as the possibility of serious difficulties in maintaining peace in rural areas and especially Karachi loom large on the horizon.
The crux of Pakistan’s problems is centred on the economy. “Economy, economy, economy,” Mohsin Khan highlighted. He stressed the fact that a new programme with the IMF will be required and that will be centred on the basic pre-requisites laid out in the previous programme that the former government had turned down. The caretaker economic team that visited Washington was told the IMF was open to discussion but would like to do this with the elected government. The last government failed to build consensus on the VAT, tax reforms and non-development expenditures. In fact the politicians never had the will to do it despite having a brilliant economic team for the last three years. And political parties opposed the reforms vehemently, especially in Karachi and Lahore. Perhaps with the change in government representing the Punjab maybe a chance exists for reversing the situation. For Pakistan’s economy to even begin to show signs of correction, the new government will have to dispassionately review the status and dismiss political expediency in driving the change.
Hold our heads high we must. There isn’t a single Pakistani I’ve met here in the last few days who is not celebrating the flow of democracy in our country. In fact, even the significant Americans I’ve met are rejoicing for us. In democracy lies our future and in change there is hope. But there is extreme sadness in the heinous murder of Zahra Shahid Hussain. Those who knew her will know what a wonderful woman she was. May Allah rest her soul in peace, and let us pay tribute by continuing to work for what she stood for: A better and prosperous Pakistan.
The writer can be contacted at: [email protected]
