PML-N stronghold not so impregnable anymore

Constituency Profiles – Rawalpindi District

With the leading lights of the country’s politics in action with seven national and 14 provincial assembly seats up for grabs, in the Rawalpindi district the PML-N this time round may not post success similar to that of 2008. Then it ruled the roost with six of its MNAs triumphant, with just one NA seat going to the PPP-P. Five years on, according to many a pundit familiar with the turf, there has been a metamorphosis of sorts, and ‘N’ is in dire straits.

The cause of this dramatic shift is said to be the realignment of political forces. The disaffection with the party hierarchy has resulted in rebellion and revolt on the local level. The biradarism is another important factor weighing heavily in the campaign as always. The candidates from all the main stakeholders in the polls, the PML-N, the PPP, the PTI and the AML, all are in the race to clinch the support of dominant biradaris and also powerful local groups.

NA-51 (Rawalpindi-II)

Raja rules

It is mostly a rural constituency covering mostly Tehsil Gujjar Khan, and the hometown of former Prime Minister Raja Pervez Ashraf, with the Rajas being the dominant biradari here. He won from here with huge margins in 2002 and 2008. In 2002, he routed Dr Tahir-ul-Qadri by over 70,000 votes and in 2008, with the PML vote split between ‘N’ and ‘Q’, it soared further to 80,247.

This time round, Raja Pervez Asharf is facing PML-N’s Raja Ikhlas and the PTI’s non-entity Raja Azeem. As such it is going to be a two-way fight with the former prime minister likely to win at a canter.

The PML-N’s candidate hit the snags right at the outset. Raja Ikhlas and his team-mates below on the provincial seats are new-comers in the PML-N. Ikhlas himself joined the ‘N’ last year, quitting PML-Q, from which he personally benefitted a lot. His partners on provincial seats are also new entrants in the party, if not in the area. For example, Aziz Bhatti who is PML-N’s candidate from PP-4 contested last election from PML-Q’s ticket.

Giving precedence to new-comers over the old guard always has its repercussions. The N’s electoral combination is not being welcomed in the party on local level, nor party network in the constituency very forthcoming in support of the PML-N’s candidate. The PML-N workers in reaction are openly campaigning for Raja Pervez.

Again, Ikhlas remained both nazim and deputy nazim of the Rawalpindi district during Gen Musharraf’s eight years. But his stint in power, he did not have much to his credit that could generate goodwill amongst his constituents.

As compared to Ikhlas, Raja Pervez Ashraf grabbed headlines for dedicating huge funds towards his constituency, allegedly using even his discretionary funds.

That being the lay of the land, Raja is all set to perform the hat-trick.

NA-54:

PPP’s Zumarrud Khan has a second wind

Here the main contest is between PPP’s Zumarrud Khan and PML-N’s Malik Ibrar. According to local observers, the contest here is evolving into a close fight with Zumarrud making a strong comeback from behind.

Sources in the constituency claim, the PPP’s candidate was initially lagging behind. Right now he has had a surge, thanks to some flawed decision of the PML-N leadership.

Here again, the PML-N leadership awarded tickets in this constituency, and the corresponding PA seats to one family. This caused resentment among the party cadres. The Awans are the dominant biradri here, but the ‘N’ ticket has gone to the Gujjars. That infuriated the Awans. Their fury gave Zumarrud another wind, the fact that Zummurud’s mate on the PA seat is Malik Mahboob Awan of the ‘Q’ also helped. No wonder, with Awans now lined up behind him, Zumarrud is feeling confident.

NA-55:

‘Sheda Tully’ scents success

After having been cast to a longish five-year spell in political wilderness after losing the 2008 election and also the by-election, the AML’s head Sheikh Rashid now has a scent of victory. The windfall for him has been Imran Khan’s and the PTI’s support. His opponent from ‘N’ is a pigmy Shakeel Awan. The N’s decision to give Sardar Nassem from the PA ticket against the wishes of local leaders created friction in the party. Now the ‘N’ network is more supportive of Sheikh Rashid than the party’s representatives.

Sheikh Rashid being a heavyweight in the national politics for so long, Shakeel Awan is said to be no match to him.

NA-56

Looks like a cruise for Imran Khan

A keen slugfest: Imran Khan versus the N’s heavyweight Hanif Abbasi.

Unlike the last election, when he won without so much as breaking a sweat, Abbasi this time has had some serious setbacks right from the outset.

His main constituency was the Abbasi tribe of Murree, Kahuta and Kotli Satti. The main biradari here, the Abbasis were in the habit of casting vote first in Rawalpindi and then in Murree for the second time. Now with the voters’ lists having been cleaned up, the Abbasi tribe has confined itself to Murree, leaving Hanif Abbasi in the lurch, and that too when he is facing an icon.

Interestingly, the next big biradari here is that of the Pathans. And there is no guessing who they are supporting!

The party’s internal rifts and the Ephederine scandal have also dented Abbasi’s credibility in the area. Looks like a cruise for Imran Khan.