A studied indifference

Do some political parties share the militants’ doctrine?

The PML-N, JUI-F and JI remain tightlipped over the ongoing attacks on politicians and election gatherings. Shahbaz Sharif has somewhat belatedly reminded the caretakers of their duty to provide security to all. The leadership of the three parties has however consistently refrained from condemning the terrorists. What is the cause behind this highly unusual silence when the ECP, caretaker set up, politicians from various parties including Imran Khan and civil society organisations like HRCP have all condemned the perpetrators in no uncertain terms? Are these parties reluctant to criticise militants on account of some sort of doctrinal affinity with them?

This may be one explanation for the reticence. JUI-F seminaries have contributed to the proliferation of the Taliban. The JI disagrees with the TTP only ‘tactically’ of while sharing its ‘ideals’. Both religious parties want to achieve aims common with the terrorists through parliamentary way. The PML-N has been accused in the past of having a soft corner for the militants, even striking electoral alliances with their legal reincarnations. There was in fact a noticeable slowing down of attacks in Punjab after Shahbaz Sharif’s appeal to the terrorists to spare the province ruled by his party. While the Punjabi Taliban continued to issue statements in the name of their group, the Sharifs denied that any organisation with that name ever existed.

Is the silence caused by a belief that that the losses suffered by PPP and its erstwhile allies would strengthen the position of the PML-N, JUI-F and JI in the elections? This too could be one of the reasons. The PPP has restricted Bilawal from public activities and there is hardly any party front ranker out in the public addressing rallies and gatherings. This is all the more noticeable in Punjab, which has to elect more than half of the National Assembly members and where the PPP had hoped to be able to form the next government. Not that better campaigning would have given Zardari’s party more seats than in 2008 as its image has been badly tarnished by bad performance.

In Sindh, the stronghold of the PPP, the PML-N has allied itself with Pagara’s PML-F. Despite the incumbency factor that would go against the PPP, the party is still likely to emerge as the largest single winner if all its leaders with a feudal-cum-tribal clout continue to remain with it.

The PML-N may be hoping to benefit from ANP’s discomfiture in Khyber Pukhtunkhwa. Not that the two have not been bedfellows in the past but now the PML-N has a different strategy in view. That it had recently tried to reach an electoral understanding with JI and JUIF shows it is seeking a different route to power in the province this time. The understanding with the two parties could not be reached on account of the demands considered over excessive by the PML-N leadership but the three could join hands after the polls. Even if the PPP and ANP perform badly this time in the province, the PML-N faces a potent challenge from the PTI. The two religious parties would again prove to be hard bargainers with any of the two seeking their support.

In Karachi, the PML-N hopes to make an entry with the help of the religious parties. As the MQM remains a major competitor in the city, it matters little to the PML-N and its allies if attacks continue on its candidates.

In Balochistan, neither the PPP nor the PML-N have any mass base. The latter pins hopes on the Baloch nationalists while bringing into its fold whatever tribal chiefs are willing to join hands.

There is however a more important reason also behind the PML-N, JUI-F and JI displaying unconcern regarding militant attacks on the secular trio.

The establishment thinks a new type of ruling alliance would be helpful to it in the coming years after the Nato forces leave the area. With the US-led troops out of the region, Pakistan would once again be on its own to deal with the terrorist groups. Whether there is longer civil war in Afghanistan, of which there is a good possibility, or a quick Taliban victory which seems less plausible, the Pakistani militants now operating from their FATA sanctuaries would pose a problem that any government will have to deal with single handedly without foreign support. What is more they would also command a strategic depth in Afghanistan.

When the US had a presence in the region and was helpful to Pakistan, the establishment was content with a government with secular credentials, pro-US leaning and willing to fight the terrorists. With the US troops withdrawn and US funds drying up, the establishment would desire having a government able to negotiate with the TTP when required.

The establishment would have preferred Imran Khan but with the momentum that the PTI leader had created receding over time, it is now looking for other partners. Mian Nawaz Sharif fits the specifications but has a streak that makes him somewhat unreliable. He has a tendency to amass all powers in his hands and in the process take on the military leadership, if needed. But with the JUI-F and JI sitting on one side of Nawaz Sharif and a pro-establishment Pagara on the other, an ideal control mechanism is in place.

As the TTP leadership continues to indulge in terror attacks as a policy of choice, it is also felling the heat in the tribal areas. The Swat valley where the militants had set up their emirate is out of their control. They can still detonate a bomb here and there, albeit after a lot of costly preparations, which explains why they are quite infrequent. Bajaur where the TTP had virtually ended the writ of the state is out of its hands. The agency is more terrorism-free than Peshawar. This has given confidence to Badam Zaree, an independent woman candidate on a general seat, to take part in the elections.

The army has freed most of the Kurrum Agency while it is fighting the terrorists in Khyber’s Tirah valley. There is meanwhile a pressure from the tribal people for peace that led to the recent peace overtures from the TTP. With the US troops gone and there being no excuse for jihad, the pressure from inside the tribes will multiply on the militants.

The establishment has long toyed with the idea of bringing militants into the mainstream. It claims it has done so in the case of Hafiz Saeed and the Difa-e-Pakistan Council. Many challenge the assertion as unrealistic.

The least the establishment wants is to persuade the TTP to stop attacks inside Pakistan and hopes that once parties like the PML-N, JUI-F and JI who are acceptable to the TTP are in power the task would become easier. The way the three parties are acting indicates they are game.

The writer is a political analyst and a former academic.