Cooperation vs confrontation

How democracy holds answers to the shenanigans of a maverick cleric

The inevitable has happened. Nawaz Sharif and Asif Ali Zardari are now on the same page, at least on Tahirul Qadri’s threats. The PML-N and the PPP have become natural allies in the developing scenario.

Nawaz probably feels that with the PPP-led coalition teetering under its own weight and general elections round the corner, any move to postpone the polls is meant to hurt him. Even before the polls are held, he sees himself as the presumptive prime minister.

Sharif is not sure whether Qadri is a foreign agent or an establishment’s pawn. But surely, he feels that there are forces within the ubiquitous establishment who want to block him.

Why does the PML-N supremo has a threat perception despite protestations to the contrary by the military? The ISPR, the public relations wing of the military, has clearly stated that the army in the past five years under General Kayani has supported democracy and would continue to do so. It has no truck with Qadri or his proposed long march.

There is a long history of Nawaz’s uneasy relations with the military top brass. As the record speaks for itself, during his two terms as prime minister, he never could get along with all the five military chiefs. He sacked General Jehangir Karamat and in the process of sacking General Musharraf got sacked himself.

Going by its ethos, PML-N is a pro-status quo party. But even while in the opposition, it has come out hard on the military top brass and its policies.

Nawaz and his opposition chief in the National Assembly, Chaudhry Nisar Ali, had spared no opportunity to castigate the army. The PML-N being a Punjab based party, this did not sit well with the military.

Thankfully, in the past year or so, better sense has prevailed amongst the PML-N leadership. Its criticism of the military has become somewhat muted and far apart.

In this context, perhaps there is a feeling in the PML-N ranks that Qadri has been launched from nowhere just to block Nawaz. The Sharifs’ confidant, Punjab’s Law Minister Rana Sanaullah, known for his acerbic remarks, has very aptly amplified this feeling. According to him, “First the establishment floated the Imran Khan balloon which was deflated by the PML-N. Now it has inflated the Qadri balloon, which will also be pierced.”

Qadri has a lot of skeletons in his cupboard. Apart from being a perjurer, his Canadian citizenship is haunting him. With the exception of MQM, no other political party is entirely supporting his agenda.

The PTI, after its initial enthusiasm for him, is now somewhat muted in its support. Expedient politics par excellence, the Choudharys of Gujrat first called on Qadri and later claimed that it was a personal visit. The rest of the political spectrum is vociferous in its criticism of the maverick cleric.

Nawaz has correctly spelt out the irony that the government’s own coalition partners, the MQM and the PML-Q, were backing a movement against their own government.

Unsurprisingly, they want to extract their pound of flesh from their senior coalition partner. The MQM wants Karachi to remain its closed shop. The election commission’s moves to revisit the demarcation of constituencies and the voters lists in the metropolis on the orders of the Supreme Court are anathemas to its interests.

Already under criticism from Sindhi nationalists and the resurgent PML-Functional under the new Pir of Pagara for introducing a two tier local bodies system, the PPP can ill afford to further alienate its constituency in the province.

The Choudharys of Gujrat are somewhat miffed for not being consulted on the appointment of Manzoor Wattoo as the party president and Ahmad Mahmud the governor in the province. The PPP rightly contends that these matters fall under its own domain. The Choudharys, on the other hand, consider Punjab as their citadel.

The prime minister also feels that the establishment is not backing Qadri. The cat will be, however, out of the bag as soon as Qadri embarks on his threatened long march.

Conspiracy theorists – in abundance amongst the commentrati – wonder who provided the cleric with money and the organisation to put up such a massive show in Lahore a fortnight ago. Qadri claims that he has garnered his own resources and generated donations to fund his operation. But no one believes him and rightly so.

So far as the military is concerned, it is too busy fighting an existential threat to Pakistan. After being fixated on India as the archenemy, it has finally acknowledged that this is not the only threat.

According to a military doctrine published by the army, insurgency in the tribal areas and on the western borders as well as terrorist attacks by militant outfits on individuals and institutions are the biggest threats to Pakistan’s sovereignty. Coupled with this, as a precursor to a drawdown of NATO forces from Afghanistan next year, the military leadership is engaged in sensitive negotiations with the Taliban to bring them to the negotiations table.

Although adventurism bordering on Bonapartists tendencies within the intelligence apparatus cannot be entirely ruled out, this is hardly the time for the military to engage in internal or external war games.

The PPP-led coalition’s record on governance has been dismal. There are concerns about a faltering economy across the board. And the military is no exception on this count. But, on the other hand, the civilian government has enjoyed an excellent rapport with the GHQ, unprecedented in the checkered history of the country.

There are elements in the country that perhaps genuinely feel nostalgic about the Ayub and Musharraf eras. They contend that democracy is not good for stability and economic growth. However, a vast majority does not subscribe to this shortsighted view.

A civilian government calling general elections will be a first for Pakistan. If polls are held on time, it will certainly strengthen democratic institutions. Not everyone likes it.

In this context, Qadri is perceived as a saboteur of democracy, not its saviour. If Nawaz and Zardari want to walk the talk, they should be seen on the same page. For starters, formal talks to chalk out a caretaker setup and other modalities of holding general elections on time should be held without further delay.

The Punjab Assembly passing a unanimous resolution condemning the proposed long march of Qadri’s outfit, Tehreek-e-Minhaj-ul-Quran, is perhaps symptomatic of a change of heart that democracy is not all bout confrontation but cooperation as well.

The writer is Editor, Pakistan Today