Blind spots in PTI’s economic policy
One had expected the PTI chief not to make unrealistic promises as is the general practice among politicians before the elections. The nation has had enough of roti, kapra, makan type of gimmickry. It badly needs a way out of the cul-de-sac where the ruling elite, both civil and military, has landed it. Most of all it needs realistic programs rather than pies in the sky.
To start with, Imran Khan has promised to turn Pakistan into a “modern welfare state where the fruits of development are shared by the entire nation and not just the elite”. A welfare state ensures a social protective system that includes a national health service, safety standards, labor rights and human rights in general. It has been described as a structure built to protect the individual “from the cradle to the grave”.
One would need little convincing that a welfare state needs to be kept in view as an ideal. To promise it as an achievable goal within an elected tenure when the wherewithal for the system is nowhere in view amounts to using the slogan as election stunt.
A welfare state requires huge financial investment by the government in social sector. A prior requirement for this is a vibrant economy, a maximum employment of productive forces and high tax-to-GDP ratio. As things stand Pakistan is a-cash starved country and has to depend on foreign assistance to continue to function. It has a vast reservoir of unemployed labor which cannot be mobilized because of internal and external reasons. The former includes lack of education and training and the later absence of employment opportunities in the country. The tax-to-GDP ratio is among the lowest in the region.
The five-pillar emergency reforms program drafted by PTI ignores vital issues that need resolution before Pakistan can take the first step towards the miles long journey on way to a “modern welfare state”.
The country suffers from abysmal poverty caused in the main by the skewed land propriety system. Most Asian countries on high growth trajectory had undertaken genuine and thorough going land reforms at an initial stage. In Pakistan, the two half-hearted attempts in the direction failed to produce the desired result as they were no more than eyewash. This has led to a situation where nearly 67 percent of Pakistan’s rural households are landless. This is in contrast to the decline in India’s rural poverty levels between 1987 and 2000 on account of far reaching land reforms.
The PTI talks about revolution. There are, however, no radical measures in its program. Thanks the powerful landed interest enjoying dominant position in the party, the PTI feels no need for land reforms. Hence the curse of landlessness will continue to give birth to widespread rural poverty.
Distribution of land through agrarian reforms can provide jobs to millions of people. What is more it can create a large market for local industry and promote trade. Big landlords use their huge earnings on foreign goods like fleets of cars, costly luxury items, travels abroad and villas constructed in Europe and US. The money earned in Pakistan creates jobs abroad while it breeds poverty at home. The small farmer who gets land will buy shoes, clothes and things of daily use and educate his children, thus promoting local production and helping raise literacy rate. The enhanced economic activity would boost state revenues.
The PTI has promised to increase spending on education from 2% of GDP to 5% in five years. This is more than doubling the present expenditure. Similarly, spending on health will be increased from 0.86% of the GDP to 2.6% in a span five years. Primary health care to the poor people of Pakistan has also been promised. This is yet another unrealistic claim. Where are the funds for achieving the much desired goals?
This year the government will spend Rs1.1 trillion – or more than one third of its total budget outlay – on servicing both the domestic and foreign debt. This segment of the budget has in any case to be paid under law. The next big item is defence expenditure. There is no details in the PTI program regarding how to cut down military budget. Unless this is done the promise to raise education and health spending at the proposed scale would remain moonshine.
The official allocation for defence in 2012-2013 stands at Rs 545 billion which is highly misleading. Some independent estimates put the actual budget at Rs 800-900 billion, almost double the allocated amount. This is because the estimated budget does not include internal security expenditures, military pensions, debt on military loans, arms purchases, etc. A part of the defence budget diverted to education and health can do wonders. But who will bell the cat?
And what does PTI VP Asad Umar mean when he says, “We want one education system for one nation.” Does he mean there will be a uniform curriculum and a single examination system?
There are currently three parallel educational systems in the country.
First, there are madrassahs or seminaries. In July this year, Wifaq-ul-Madaris Al-Arabia Pakistan declared that the number of students appearing in the examination was 212,490 of which 111,909 were girls and remaining 100,581 were boys. Will PTI make the curriculum of these madrassahs the standard for all students? As for as the madrassahs are concerned, they would resist any move to amalgamate them in either of the two other systems.
Second, there is a government school system preparing students for Matriculation examination. Students from low income group go to these schools. The system has its own courses of study and examinations. Before Partition, the system produced outstanding students including two Nobel Laureates in Punjab. Now the system is in shambles. While it needs to be revitalized, it will take at least a decade before it is turned around.
Third, there is a private school system preparing students for O and A levels. It is highly costly and only students belonging to the upper class can afford to join these schools. Should Imran Khan try to run government schools on the lines of the private schools, the expenses for the state would be unbearable. So only Imran knows what is meant by “one education system for one nation”.
When it comes to improving the supply of energy, Imran Khan counts his chickens before they are hatched.
At PTI’s seminar on electricity held in late February, Imran promised to halve the current power shortage and improve gas supply within two years and completely do away with gas and electricity load shedding by the completion of his five-year tenure. Many look at the promise as they do at Imran’s vow of halving the corruption within 9 days of coming to power. He has spelled out two ways to achieve self-sufficiency in power. First a “big bang governance” that would require putting all energy-related matters under a single ministry. Second, generating some 4,500MW through cheaper imported coal instead of furnace oil and achieve a total savings of Rs475 billion in the bargain. He sounds simplistic when says “right now work on Bhasha dam has been taken in hand”. Did nobody tell him that the sole work taken in hand on the Bhashja dam is a foundation stone laid by Yusuf Raza Gilani in December 2011? The World Bank continues to deny funding for the project raising the legal objection that the site of the dam is located in an area disputed between India and Pakistan. As long as Pak-India ties remain strained, there is little hope of any international financing agency or foreign bank putting its money in the project. Few believe that Pak-US relations during Imran’s tenure are likely to turn into a honeymoon.
The writer is a former academic and a political analyst.
At least they have a plan, why not demand the other parties to present theirs. The way the current govt. has destroyed the economy, I don't think they can do any worse.
They do not hv plans. They hv Sheikh Chili dream. PTI is afraid of offending landed aristocracy predominating its ranks.
no matter how fu***d up this plan is….:-)
Do any other party have alt least a plan (either its fu***d up or not)
excellent article….a cool headed analysis for not only PTI but all the economic acrobats.
One should have faith in PTI at least they have a plan !
No one should trust a fake plan. PTI has nno solution to the problems of Pakistan.
PTI do not believe in the begging bowl and do not want to take loans . Where will they get money to run the country: drug smuggling?
Well if they do smuggle the drugs out and make money for the country and use it for the purpose of better economy and growth for country I am all in and supportive. Its demand and supply, if we can supply drugs and the world markets demand it why should we not take advantage of it.
My earlier comments about this columnist stand.He is living in the past and senility has overtaken.He has never seen or cannot recollect the 60s due to his condition,or he is a paid writer of you know who.
It might looks weaker plan, but the most important thing is the intention, if you have the intention to do a job, you can find the way better and better. What all other parties lack is the intention to do good for Pakistan. They only find the ways to prolong their time in Govt. and make money. This is what we believe that Imran Khan does not have. He is honest, sincear and want to do something. I think instead of criticisiom we should support him and give positive suggestions to do things in better way.
'the most important thing is the intention,' Mind-boggling! good intentions aint enough to pay our debts. The need of the hour is a realistic plan to turn things around as the author points out.
In many ways, PTI should take this as a compliment that people are questioning their policies……even though they miserably fail to (or want to) understand the long term goals of PTI. Just the fact that PTI has a man of integrity as their leader is alone the best policy Pakistan could ask for to start with a new chapter for a better Pakistan 60+ years! (Ex-pat Kashmiri, whose only concern is J&K).
I endorse the views of the learned writer
nobody cares about your endorsement. sorry to break it to you Nawaz Sharif.
learned writer is very quick to criticise the plans of PTI, first atleast they have a plan and steps how will they carry this out! Go and try analyse the plans of other parties – if you find one!
As a nation we are very quick to think negetive and start pointing fingers, failing to apperciate good steps from anyone!
Apperciate, they have put some sanity to thug political culture, now other if they like it or not will come up with plan even regardless of intention. Later parties compete on plans and their pass and failure on its implementation.
PTI has done no work at all. It is very obvious from their plan. They did not develop analysis of Pakistan social set-up which was a painstaking job/ It is easy to make big promise but difficult to come up with a pragmatic solution. Terrorism, bad and orthodox image of Pakistan in the world, molvi-cracy, religious narrow-mindedness and intolerance are sending a bad image abroad. SupremeCourt meddling into executive domain is retreating investors. PTI said nothing about all this, though, this is related to economic woes.
only planning is not solution to the problems. plans must meet reality than they can fluster.
an amazingly pessimistic view from the author. perhaps the nation has lost faith on sincere commitments and well planned agendas due to the doings of the past rulers.
close the reality,we should wait for some miracle otherwise the game is over
The writer may be a clever individual and his anlysis may be valid but can he put his hand on his heart and claim that he also has the initiative that IK has shown throughout his career???
None of the politicians even know what "initaitive" is or how things are "planned"-IK is the only HOPE that this country has otherwise it is "The End"
God bless us if this is even an initiative!
The writer,s opinion cannot be ignored. I have several times asked Imran to outline his economic policy and he has finally done it. Welcome to the world of utopia. I am reminded of the times when young graduates used to join my Dept. full of of theory and enthusiasm only to be a little disappointed. I used to gently point it out to them that there is a gap between theory and practice and the gap is bigger between practice and theory than between theory and practice. Later on they used to understand the real medical world.__Now in case of Imran the situation is the same similar toZAB. But at least he is honest. But let us not regard him the Only Hope. Let us all work together to make him the Hope. Before somebody calls me senile i share your aspirations and wish him well but life has taught me to be realistic.__
I dont understand this term "honest" which is attributed to IK. Is he not hungry for power? The way he invited all kind of thugs into his party shows he is much more hungry and dishonest than Nawaz, Benazir or Fazloo. The problems which developed in PPP after two years ZAB was into power have developed in PTI much before it is expected into power. I wonder where it would lead to.
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You have a point …
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Agreed on the point of Dr M M Khan we should not just think about the hope that IK is just hope lets every body try to become a hope for this Nation
I totally agree with the author. I was critical of IK from the very beginning. He wasted too much time in criticism of Nawaz Sharif but did not offer any solution of his own. This policy is outcome of desperate IK . He has back tracked on many fronts. This economic policy is too little too late kind of thing. Had he given this policy earlier, there would have been more time to refine it.
Whenever u want to do something big it has to be take first step in the AIR Mr. Aziz-ud-Din Ahmad, surely there r some foals but overall its realistic doable policy for Pakistan if anyone want to really do.
PTI has done no work at all. It is very obvious from their plan. They did not develop analysis of Pakistan social set-up which was a painstaking job/ It is easy to make big promise but difficult to come up with a pragmatic solution. Terrorism, bad and orthodox image of Pakistan in the world, molvi-cracy, religious narrow-mindedness and intolerance are sending a bad image abroad. SupremeCourt meddling into executive domain is retreating investors. PTI said nothing about all this, though, this is related to economic woes.
I guess people like Aziz ud Din Ahmad are not used to seeing comprehensive policy documents and believe in politicians slogans. Perhaps a sound policy is too much for him.
Nara awam da
no plan noora haramda
writer has only criticised PTI Economic agenda which is a lovely task to do..
come up with some suggestions also next time u write an article..
I totally agree with columnist.
very honest review and writer has adeply exposed the reality of ‘fools’ paradise’
IMRANKHAN NIAZI PTI CHAIRMAN PLAN == NIGHTCLUBS GAMBLING HOUSES ESPECIALLY FOR JEW FOREIGNERS — TIPS FOR IMRANKHAN NIAZI AT 40% — DRUNK ON SCOTCH WHISKY IN HIS FOOLS PARADISE … IMAGINE THE MONEYS FOREIGN JEW GAMBLERS SHALL BRING TO PAKISTAN … ECONOMY SHALL BOOM .
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