Despite of floods and severe rains in Punjab and Sindh, the production of cotton remained as high as 13.3 million bales (170kg each), five per cent more than the last assessment of 12.59 million bales by Cotton Crop Assessment Committee (CCAC). Cotton Commissioner Dr Khalid Abdullah attributed the high production mainly to extraordinary high cotton prices during 2010-11, that became a source of inspiration for high input usage and better management of the crop. Dr Abdullah told APP that Almightly Allah blessed Pakistan with extraordinary cotton crop in 2011-12. “Despite of floods and severe rains in Punjab and Sindh, the production remained as high as 13.3 million bales (170kg each), 5 per cent more than the last assessment of 12.59 million bales by Cotton Crop Assessment Committee (CCAC)”, he remarked. He added that the high production is mainly attributed to extraordinary high cotton prices during 2010-11, that became a source of inspiration for high input usage, and better management of the crop. Dr Abdullah said that the nature favored with low Cotton Leaf Curl Virus (CLCV) disease and mealy bug incidence. “Although floods took a toll of about 2-2.5 million bales but the country managed to sustain a reasonably good cotton production”, he remarked. He said that the deteriorated quality due to non-stop rains during boll opening stage of the cotton and high production affected the market badly. “Farmers expecting last year’s high prices have to face entirely different situation”, he remarked. The last year’s production, he said remained a source for projecting next year’s crop volume and some exaggerated figures are being quoted by different economic analytical forums without evaluating the picture holistically. Dr Khalid informed that a report published in April 2012, by Global Agriculture Information Network (GAIN), under Foreign Agriculture Services and United Agriculture Department of Agriculture projected Pakistan’s cotton production for the year 2012-13 as 10 per cent increase in area and production. The author forecasted the Pakistan’s cotton cultivation on 3.3 million ha and production as 11 million bales (480 lbs per bale) equivalent to 14.1 million bales (170 kg). The report also stated that GOP has approved 11 biotech and 3 non-biotech cotton varieties for general cultivation in the country. The report, he said apparently is not based on any authentic source or data. Such premature projections may damage the cotton market, shake investor’s confidence create bias estimates of global cotton stocks. The Ministry of Textile Industry can not endorse such reports. He added that looking at the ground realities, the Government of Punjab has approved 8 and not 11 new biotech and 6 (not 3) non biotech varieties. The biotech varieties approved are with Mon 531 gene for commercial cultivation in the province subjected to the commercialization authentication from the National Bio-safety Committee. “The authentication is still awaited”, he remarked. Dr.Abdullah added that early sowing in Punjab, being the main cotton belt, has achieved 21 per cent less than last year, whereas, in Sindh sowing is 2 per cent lagging behind the area sown in the same period in 2011-12. The Indus River System Authority has already declared the water shortage by 21 per cent till the end of June 2012.
The availability of certified seed of approved cotton varieties is not as much as last year.
The prevalence of CLCV is uncertain and if weather becomes favorable to CLCV, the disease can outbreak and cause damage.
Fertilizer availability will remain satisfactory; however pesticides availability could become an issue as APTAC meeting has not been convened for more than 2 years due to shifting the subject in different ministries after the devolution of ministry of Food Agriculture.
After evaluating all factors, and not being pessimistic, achieving the last years’ target seems a difficult task.
After the defunct Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA) of the devolved Ministry of Food and Agriculture, the targets of any crop commodity are not officially fixed, rather provinces use their last year’s achievements as target of the next year.
