The decision by Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-Fazl (JUI-F) to quit the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP)-led fragile coalition has for the first time shaken the scandal-hit government of Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani at a time when it needed the support of its allies more than ever.
Equally disturbing for the PPP is that the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), which has already developed serious differences with the PPP and the Awami National party (ANP) over the situation in Karachi, is also not showing any signs of keeping its alliance with the PPP intact.
The JUI-F divorced itself from the marriage of convenience with the PPP following the sacking of Federal Minister Azam Khan Swati for accusing his cabinet colleague PPP’s Hamid Saeed Kazmi of corruption in Haj affairs. Though the prime minister also sacked Kazmi for mismanagement in the Ministry of Religious Affairs, the JUI-F did not take much time to react in support of its main financier Senator Swati.
While there is no apparent and immediate threat to the numbers-weak government of the PPP, the situation, however, may change if the MQM also takes the same route and pulls out of the coalition. Expecting an equally rude shock from the MQM as well after Dr Zulfiqar Mirza’s outburst on Monday accusing the MQM of involvement in most assassinations in Karachi, the PPP renewed its contact with PML-Q president Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain through Law Minister Babar Awan.
In a house of 342, the PPP requires the support of 172 members to form a simple majority. The five-party coalition, before the JUI-F parted ways, had 187 members – PPP 125, ANP 13, JUI-F 7, MQM 25, PML-F 5 and FATA 12. With the JUI-F walking away, the now four-party coalition still has 180 members and the government will fall only if the MQM too decides to call it a day. An important make-or-break meeting of the MQM is scheduled to simultaneously take place in London and Karachi today.
The PML-Q is also divided on joining or supporting the PPP. The Chaudhrys will certainly not shoulder the crumbling coalition without a quid pro quo, which will not be anything short of the top executive position in the Punjab as part of power-sharing formula. But notwithstanding that a group of likeminded Q-Leaguers is annoyed with the Chaudhrys they are, however, still much stronger than the MQM in the numbers game and can easily substitute for both the MQM and the JUI-F.
The immediate challenge for the PPP is to keep the MQM in the alliance with a contingency plan on the table to handle a crisis in case the chips are finally down and the MQM also says good bye to the coalition. The only choice for the PPP to maintain the required number in the National Assembly without the MQM is now the PML-Q. And this is why the PPP has already begun contacting the PML-Q. The ball is now in the MQM’s court.
