The labyrinth that is Karachi
Plus ça change, plus c’est même chose. The more things change, the more they stay the same. Tensions in Karachi are following a circular pattern. If the ANP vs MQM tensions were a replay of the Pushtun vs Mohajir violence of the ‘80s, the newer Haqiqi vs Altaf turbulence is a replay of the MQM infighting of the ‘90s.
For western audiences, the MQM might play up the card of keeping the Islamists at bay but the greatest challenges it faces are from the secular forces. Its two biggest problems are demographic changes (constant, incessant) and the still hot embers of other factions of the MQM. On the former: a march of the inevitable. The ANP has a lot of inspiration in that old Pushtun proverb about the Other: they have the watches but we have the time. Interesting times ahead on that front. By now, even the most conservative of estimates of Pushtun population in Karachi are enough to make Nine Zero nervous.
Though these demographic shifts are bound to be the biggest game changer, it is the specter of a resurrected Haqiqi that is the sum of all fears for London.
The MQM alleges that the government is using both of these leverages against it, very explicitly in the case of the Haqiqi. They do, after all, have a smoking gun in Zulfiqar Mirza’s meeting with Afaq Ahmed in jail. The erstwhile home minister’s Ishq-e-Haqiqi is a rag far redder than any ANP flag.
Given the efficacy of the deployment of the Rangers in the last spat of violence, many from the public bring up the obvious question: if it’s so easy, why doesn’t the government just do it before the killings start?
The fact of the matter is that deployments of the sort treat the symptoms, not the cure. And since it is basically a smoke-out in a particular area, there is no way to do it other than after killings start. A grand, holistic approach would be an operation a la (yes, take his name) Naseerullah Babar and there’s just too much mess going that route.
For the government, Karachi is a damned if you do, damned if you don’t. Inaction means the status quo, action means far greater turbulence.
