- The government must stop giving people false hope
It would be an understatement to say that Pakistan is facing an economic crisis. In fact, it is on the verge of an economic precipice of unprecedented proportions. The situation is a cumulative impact of political dishonesty exhibited by the successive rulers who took the people for a ride, built their own fortunes and promoted vested interests instead of working honestly and with dedication to change the economic situation of the millions of people who lived under the poverty ,line and whose ranks are swelling with every passing day. Giving false hopes to the people to win their franchise at the time of elections, or seizing power and indulgence in reckless corruption after reaching the corridors of power, have been the hallmarks of the successive regimes.
They have shown a knack for prestige projects rather than initiating vitally needed development projects conforming to the prevailing economic realities and designed to winch the people out of the poverty trap. To cover up their poor performance, they have invariably blamed the outgoing governments for all the ills afflicting the economy and at the same time promising the moon to the people knowing well that it was not possible in view of the deteriorating economic situation. Yet another feature of their governance has been political victimisation of their opponents through witch-hunt in the name of accountability to divert the attention of the people from the real issues and their inability to find the right recipes to address them.
The people at large are very hard-pressed, which provides an ideal ingredient for a movement against the government. If that happens, it will lead to political instability and undermine the efforts to put the economy back on track
The PTI government seems to have outdone all the previous regimes in the foregoing traits. PTI Chairman Imran Khan is no more a leader who barged on the political landscape of the country on 30 October 2011 with a revolutionary agenda. He has negated his own ideology and made unbelievable compromises to reach the corridors of power. He is repeating the same mistakes and pursuing the same policies which have brought the country to where it stands now. In fact, it would not be an exaggeration to say that he was to a great extent responsible even before coming to power for contributing to the economic meltdown for which he likes to put the entire blame on the PML-N government. His sit-in of 126 days actually triggered the nosedive in the economic situation. Dr Hafeez Ahmed Pasha, a renowned Economist who has served as Finance Minister, Deputy Chairman Planning Commission and authored a book titled Growth and Inequality in Pakistan in a newspaper interview, referring to the losses suffered by the economy due to the sit-in by Imran Khan, observed “The sit-in of 126 days during Nawaz Sharif government inflicted huge loss to the economy. Since then Pakistan’s stock exchange dwindled by 35 per cent. resulting in mammoth loss of $30 billion.” Imran Khan and company never mention or admit their contribution to the prevailing economic meltdown, which is political dishonesty.
Dilating on the future economic scenario, Dr Pasha maintained that during the next two years about eight million people will go down below the poverty line and the GDP growth rate would hover around 3 per cent. The World Bank and IMF, in their latest reports on the Pakistan economy, have also expressed similar views on the growth pattern. It is pertinent to mention that when the PML-N government left, the GDP growth stood at 5.5 per cent, the highest in the last eight years, and the budgetary deficit had also come down to 5.3 per cent of GDP. The budgetary deficit this year is projected at seven per cent of GDP and the inflation rate is also expected to rise to double digits, due to decline in rupee value and the burden of indirect taxes.
Pakistan will need to pay back loans of $40 billion in the next two years. It has borrowed $9.4 billion from China, Saudi Arabia and UAE. The country may get $6-8 billion from IMF which will in fact be $3-5 billion as some of the amount will be consumed in paying back the previous loans of the Fund. All these loans put together would be far below the amount that Pakistan needs to pay back its debts.
The envisaged IMF package depends on Pakistan agreeing to the demand of the Fund for revenue generation up to Rs seven trillion through taxation. If agreed by Pakistan, it will prove disastrous for the economy as people will not pay more when the growth is at the lowest ebb. That indeed is a very dismal situation. The economy is in complete mess and with no hope of its revival in the light of the foregoing facts, one wonders how can the government make tall claims of turning around the economy, building five million houses, providing 10 million jobs and making available money for the other ambitious projects being announced by it? The economic realities do not support that kind of extravaganza which is a deliberate attempt to give false hopes to the people for political mileage. That is also political dishonesty. If the economy is really bad, and they leave no opportunity to say so and blame it on the previous governments, then they should have the moral courage to admit that under such a bleak situation they cannot deliver on their promises.
The PTI government needs to come out of the dream world and be honest with the people. The people cannot be fed on mere pledges for a prosperous future. The lives of the people have already been made miserable due to frequent increases in the prices of gas, electricity and petrol which invariably lead to a new overall price spiral every time they are increased. The obtaining situation amply corroborates Dr Pasha’s view about eight million going down the poverty line during the next two years.
Even if one concedes that the PTI government will be able to unleash a miracle as claimed by it, though the miracles never happen, it will nonetheless depend on political stability in the country which seems a remote possibility in view of the confrontational policy of the government. The witch-hunt in the name of accountability, with only the leaders of the opposition parties being targeted, is taking the country towards political turmoil. People do want across-the-board accountability and it is imperative to devise a fool-proof mechanism for that in consultation with all the stakeholders. The current apparatus for accountability has zero credibility and unfortunately has been used for political victimisation by successive regimes. People have seen such theatrics in the past.
The PPP and JUI-F have already announced launching movement against the government, and the way things are going, the PML-N may also be forced to join them. The people at large are very hard-pressed, which provides an ideal ingredient for a movement against the government. If that happens, it will lead to political instability and undermine the efforts to put the economy back on track. The PTI government therefore is well advised to revisit its attitude towards the opposition parties. The country needs an agreed economic and governance system to address all the ills afflicting our body politic. The PTI should not waste time on portraying the opposition leaders as devils and giving false hope to the people. Politics is the art of the possible.
