- Afghanistan will be pivotal for all, but especially India
By Samiullah Doorandesh
Afghanistan, a kryptonite in India’s Central Asia Policy, after decades of economic stagnancy has started to return to the path of development amidst the perennial impediments of insecurity, insurgency, and corruption. The establishment of infrastructural connectivity to reach the regional and international markets, since the ascendance of Ashraf Ghani to power in 2014, is promising for regional connectivity. Afghanistan, contrary to the popular perception as an “Achilles Heel”, will be playing a seminal role in Indian Central Asian policy.
The grown geopolitical and geostrategic stature of Central Asia has forced the policymakers in Delhi, penitent of previous apathy, to recalibrate its Central Asia policy to ensure maximisation of its interests and a stronger foothold in the ongoing strategic competition for access to the abundant natural resources. The policymakers of India have been experimenting with different policy schemes, ranging from the “Look North Policy” to the “Look South Policy” and the ultimate framework of “Connect Central Asia Policy”.
However, it should be noted that the success of Indian policies in Central Asia greatly depends on Afghanistan which has been torn apart by conflicts for the past four decades. Analysts in general and Indians in particular realise that for the most aspects of these policy frameworks, throughout the years, India has been successful in achieving what they have always desired: Indian culture has extensively penetrated the Central Asian region and has greater resemblance to the local culture due to the historical cultural connectivity. Indian cinema has been a leading tool in ensuring a positive image.
However, India is having a hard time in materialising the land connectivity aspect due to its dependence on volatile Afghanistan. Afghanistan, believe most Indian thinkers, has been India’s “Achilles Heel” in Central Asia. Nevertheless, the realisation of regional connectivity and prevalence of peace and stability largely linked to the successful peace process with Taliban, can enormously turn the tide in favour of India. Therefore, historically an “Achilles Heel”, Afghanistan can be a blessing in disguise for the future Indian ambitions in Central Asia.
The establishment of infrastructural connectivity since the ascent of Ashraf Ghani to power in 2014, is promising, not only for the stature of Afghanistan but also, for regional connectivity. Afghanistan, contrary to the perception of its being an “Achilles Heel”, will be playing a seminal role in Indian policies towards Central Asia
The “New Great Game” in Central Asia features China as a contender, exacerbating problems not only for India but also for the USA, Russia, Iran, and Turkey and, to a lesser extent, Pakistan. This has further complicated the ongoing economic and political rivalry. The Russians and Chinese want a speedy withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan which will reduce US influence in the region. However, the USA has been pragmatically ambivalent to reach a concrete decision about exiting from the strategic landscape, fearing a political vacuum which might create an opportunity for any of its rivals, especially, China and Russia—to augment their regional power status. China with its ambitious economic megaproject, the “Belt and Road Initiative“, is eyeing greater strategic cooperation with the Central Asian republics which will not only challenge Indian influence but also secure unhindered access to gas and oil resources, estimated about 300 trillion cubic feet of gas and 90 to 200 billion barrels of oil.
Despite being characterised as a kryptonite, Afghanistan is a pronounced factor in India’s outreach towards Central Asia. The decades-long conflict in Afghanistan has had a significant impact on the Indian policy ambitions. The TAPI and CASA-1000 projects have not yet been completed, taking off only after long discussions on planning and operational issues due to existential threats from terrorist groups controlling the transmission routes.
The strategic geopolitical location of Afghanistan is central and conducive to greater regional cooperation and connectivity. Indian trade with Central Asia passes through Afghan ports. The Chabahar port, is monumental not only for India but also Afghanistan. The volatile security situation dictates that the near future be judged full of uncertainty. However, despite the bitter realities of the present, recent developments indicate Afghanistan will not be strangulated by war forever.
Afghanistan is walking through the storm to embark on the task of realising its claim of being “the heart of Asia”. Afghanistan being the shortest route for energy transmission, not only connects South Asia and Central Asia, but can also establish interacting points among the Central Asian states, especially Turkmenistan and Tajikistan. Afghanistan presents a viable opportunity for the Turkmenistan-Tajikistan gas transmission project, because the alternative via Uzbekistan is less feasible. Moreover, the 480km fibreoptic cable project, part of the digital silk route, connecting Afghanistan to the Chinese fibre network through Wakhan, is nearly finished. Despite the insecurity and lack of infrastructural and logistical facilities, the Afghan President Ashraf Ghani was successful in convincing, after talks for three years, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Turkey and Georgia, to ink the historical Lapis Lazuli trade and transit corridor in October 2017. In February 2019, a convoy of nine trucks, for the first time, went from Afghanistan to Turkey and back.
Another significant development is the ‘China-Afghanistan Railway Freight’. A modest 75km railway track already connected Afghanistan with Uzbekistan. On September 5, the inaugural railway freight set off to China, entering Uzbekistan through the historical Soviet-constructed bridge over the Amu Darya. Afghanistan has, for a long time, endeavoured to reach the Chinese markets. The Afghan government had desired inclusion in the BRI project to which China complied after contemplation. Pakistan has already initiated discussions on operational issues in inaugurating trade, through Rail, from Karachi port to Torkham.
The Five Nations Railway Project is another proposed flagship project for regional connectivity, involving China, Iran, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Afghanistan. It traverses 902 km inside Afghanistan. The feasibility studies have already been completed. The Khaf-Herat railway line will be inaugurated by March and will allow Afghanistan to access the Bandar Abbas and Chabahar ports. Moreover, on February 21, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani signed an MoU with the Turkmen President, for 30km railway from Aqina port to Andkhoy. On July 26, the construction work was initiated. The proposed railways will greatly enhance regional connectivity, transforming Afghanistan into strategic hub.
In summation, Afghanistan, after decades of economic stagnancy has started to stroll back on the path of development amidst the perennial impediments of insecurity, insurgency, and corruption. The establishment of infrastructural connectivity since the ascent of Ashraf Ghani to power in 2014, is promising, not only for the stature of Afghanistan but also, for regional connectivity. Afghanistan, contrary to the perception of its being an “Achilles Heel”, will be playing a seminal role in Indian policies towards Central Asia.
