- India should learn from the Kashmir experience
India’s view is that abrogation of Kashmir’s special status and Kashmiris’ hereditary proprietary rights is an internal matter. They harp on the Kashmiris’ struggle to shake off Indian yoke amounting to terrorism. And that its legislative coup d’état would be a harbinger of peace, amity, and lasting prosperity in Indian-held Kashmir. Pakistan’s view is, unless revocation is withdrawn and curfew lifted, the situation would result in a bloodbath. What’s the truth?
Terrorists or freedom fighters: Unlike Kashmir, Bangladesh was not a disputed state like Jammu And Kashmir State. It was an integral part of Pakistan. But, harboured, nurtured, trained and armed Bangladeshi ‘freedom fighters’ in India’s lexicon. Pakistan calls them ‘terrorists’. Kashmiris are not ‘terrorists’, but India is a ‘rogue state’:
Let India not forget that Kashmir is a disputed state according to UN resolutions and the Simla accord. A state that flouts international treaties is called a ‘rogue state’
RAW officers’ confessions: Some Indian diplomats and RAW cover officers have made startling revelations in their books about involvement in insurgencies or terrorism in neighbouring countries. . For instance, RK Yadav, and B. Raman (The Kaoboys of R&AW: Down Memory Lane) make no bones about India’s involvement in Bangladesh’s insurgency. They admitted that India’s then prime minister Indira Gandhi, Parliament, RAW and armed forces acted in tandem to dismember Pakistan. Raman recalls ‘Indian parliament passed resolution on March 31, 1971 to support insurgency. Indira Gandhi had then confided to Kao that if Mujib was prevented from ruling Pakistan, she would liberate East Pakistan from the clutches of the military junta. Kao, through one R&AW agent, got hijacked a plane Fokker Friendship Ganga of Indian Airlines from Srinagar to Lahore. India’s security czar Doval publicly claims that he acted as a spy under a pseudonym in Pakistan for 11 years. In a newspaper article, titled ‘How India secretly armed Afghanistan’s Northern Alliance’, on 1st September, India’s former ambassador tells about India’s secret support to Northern Alliance. He discloses India’s ambassador Bharath Raj Muthu Kumar, with consent of then foreign minister Jaswant Singh, ‘coordinated the military and medical assistance India was secretly giving to Massoud and his forces. The support involved ‘helicopters, uniforms, ordnance, mortars, small armaments, refurbished Kalashnikovs seized in Kashmir, combat and winter clothes, packaged food, medicines, and funds’. These supplied were ‘delivered circuitously with the help of other countries’ or ‘ through his [Masssoud’s] brother in London, Wali Massoud’.
The EU experience shows how weak but intelligent states coalesced to ensure their survival by constraining the hegemon. Alternatively, they would have been on hegemon’s bandwagon in a subordinate position. India should read the writing on the wall and move toward Pakistan
Then there is the Kunew lbhushan Jadhav episode: Jadhav was an Indian-Navy officer, attached to the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW). His mission was to covertly carry out espionage and terrorism in Pakistan. Pakistan also alleged there were Indian markings on arms deliveries to Baloch rebels pushed by Jadhav. To India’s chagrin, India’s investigative journalists confirmed from Gazettes of India that he was commissioned in the Indian Navy in 1987.
The myth of ‘revocation’s benefits: The Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Bill is no panacea for the region. It has in fact exacerbated Kashmiri misery through the lockdown. The walnut and apple crops have been destroyed for want of buyers, rain, or immobility. No new jobs. The state already had over 484,901bloated jobs in 27 government departments, while Governor Satya Pal Malik announced in August 50,000 jobs to be created in three months.
International fallout: Informal discussion in a closed-door format at the Security Council led to no resolution. Yet, it is a source of concern to India. As soon as the situation becomes a threat to peace and security, P5 and the Security Council would spring into action.
China is executing several infrastructural projects in Gilgit and Baltistan bordering Ladakh and Azad Kashmir. The U.S. position its tilts in Pakistan’s favour because of Afghanistan exit. Pakistani diaspora in Britain and Sikhs may increase Pakistan’s leverage.
Nuclear Armageddon: a fair worry?: Prime minister Imran Khan warned war between the nuclear rivals could ‘have consequences for the world’ Kashmir is the flashpoint that triggered the past wars in 1948, 1965, 1971 and 1999, besides a quasi-war or military standoff in 2001-2002. Even today, it remains a nuclear tinderbox. India wants the issue to remain on the backburner, but Pakistan wants early resolution. John Thomson, in an article ‘Kashmir: the most dangerous place in the world’ has analyzed whether it is a myth or reality to perceive Kashmir as the most dangerous place in the world. He cogently argues the Kashmir issue could once again spark another Indo-Pak military confrontation with concomitant risks of a nuclear war.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace has, inter alia, pointed out that ‘avoiding nuclear war in South Asia will require political breakthroughs in India-Pakistan’.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi assures the world that India is headed for a five-trillion-dollar economy. He is a Buddha incarnate, a doyen of world peace. Some of his slogans may nevertheless be hollow.The 1996 BJP slogan was “sabko dekha baari-baari, abki baari Atal Bihari” (now it’s Bihari’s turn), in 2014 it was “achchhe din aane waale hain” (good days are in the offing),In 2019, it was Modi hai to mumkin hai (If Modi is there, it’s possible), jal sey nal jal Shakti (water power), jal Jeevan (water is life ), ayushman Bharat (happy India) and swachh Bharat (clean India). . Modi won the ‘Global Goalkeeper Award’ for the Swachh Bharat Abhiyan launched by the government. The world is enamoured of Modi’s reformist programmes.
A lesson of history is that only such states survive as can strike a balance between security and welfare. Garrison or warrior states vanished as if they never existed. Client states, living on doles from powerful states, ended up as banana republics. We should at least learn from the European security experience.
Just think of what great status were empires like Austria-Hungary, Spain, Portugal, the Netherlands, Sweden and Tsarist Russia and even the erstwhile USSR.
A common feature of all strong states had been that they had strong harmonious military and civil institutions, de jure capability to defend their territory and policies that favoured the citizenry rather than dominant classes, feudal lords, industrial robber barons and others. Pakistan needs to weed tout mafias, put its economic house in order, and provide, at least, universal healthcare.
The EU experience shows how weak but intelligent states coalesced to ensure their survival by constraining the hegemon. Alternatively, they would have been on hegemon’s bandwagon in a subordinate position. India should read the writing on the wall and move toward Pakistan.
