- There must be military and economic measures taken
By Muhammad Sohail Ahmed
When the Indian fascist leadership, as rightly pointed out by our leadership, made its illegal, immoral and unconstitutional move to abrogate Article 370 of the Indian Constitution, it was expected that there would be some missiles fired as the situation heated up.
A clampdown in Indian occupied Kashmir continues, with people dying for not being able to get medicine, children crying for food, women being harassed and humiliated by the Indian Army, and what else is required to move us? What if there is a missile strike on an economic target on Indian territory? Is it likely to wake up the Indian security forces to some extent, the world community to a larger extent? Will, it not put a check on unabated atrocities on the Muslims of Indian occupied Kashmir? But before such retaliation or punitive actions by Pakistan, a missile strike got materialised on the Saudi oil wells of Khurais and Abqaiq supposedly by the Yemeni Houthi rebels. The interesting part is the timeframe in which drone technology was used to launch missiles from a ten-drone squadron flying from the Yemeni border. A four-year war where the Saudi and UAE coalition is continuously pounding the rebels, the response using drone-launched missiles is extremely difficult without foreign support.
Who is the beneficiary of this development, and how, needs to be analysed? The stakeholders are Saudi Arabia which has incurred a financial loss. Iran did not lose much except the rhetoric from Donald Trump, which otherwise continues. The USA did not lose as it is no more dependent on oil supplies from the Gulf. With the advent of shale technology and the existing oil reserves, it is rather producing oil causing a reduction in oil prices in the world market.
The USA has however benefitted as it has found new Army deployments in Saudi Arabia and UAE. The drone-launched missiles appear to have defeated the Patriot missile defence system which the Saudis have, as it was conceived to engage ballistic missiles coming from high altitude. Pakistan has also developed cruise missiles to defeat anti-missile systems. Interestingly, the Indian government is going for the S-400 system through a purchase order of $5 billion. Each system costs about $1billion. Another benefit is the testing of new technology in the real battlefield environment in that the drones flown by the USA in Somalia have been shot down by the rebels using improvised rocket launchers. Future drone development would take this factor into account.
Pakistan should keep the focus on Indian-occupied Kashmir to bring an end to illegal occupation of Kashmir. Any requests to Pakistan on mediation efforts in the region such as Afghanistan, Iran or Saudi Arabia should be linked to open support on Kashmir
Besides the Organisation of Islamic Countries and the USA, the main focus of Pakistan has been on Saudi Arabia and UAE, whose foreign ministers visited Pakistan to take stock of the situation in Kashmir and assist Pakistan in helping Muslim brothers and sisters in Indian-occupied Kashmir. Unfortunately, the missile strikes on Saudi oilfields have indirectly benefitted India which is trying to distract the world community in general and Muslim community in particular from the issue of Kashmir.
During the visit of the Prime Minister of Pakistan, for an address in the UN General Assembly he took up the Kashmir inferno with the US President. However, there was not much of a response on the issue. The prime minister has been requested to sort out the problem between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The body language of the Indian and our leadership at Houston public gathering is an indication that there will be no support to PAKISTAN on Kashmir issue. Joe Biden, one of the Democrat candidates for the 2020 presidential nomination hinted at the strategy of establishing bases in Pakistan after withdrawal from Afghanistan. The plan can be better implemented by the USA through emboldening India, thereby generating a serious war-like situation to attempt a footprint in Pakistan. This is similar to the Yemen-Saudi conflict and missile strikes ending up providing a casus belli to US forces deployment in Saudi Arabia and UAE.
The Indian government is bloodlessly treading on a dangerous path as it is easy to work on a single track of ‘Hindutva Doctrine’ which was formulated before the advent of nuclear weapons and drone technology. Indian COAS Gen Bipin Rawat, in his statement, revealed the Indian government intention to invade Azad Jammu and Kashmir as the next step after the annexation of Indian occupied Kashmir. He stated that if the government asked him to conduct such an operation, the troops were prepared and waiting for the bidding. However, he should look at the map to find out that if the Indian army moves towards Pakistan it should not get surprised from the missiles hitting it in the rear, arriving from the missiles launched from the seaward side of the Arabian Sea. The Pakistan Navy should suffice for his misadventure before Pakistan army or air forces give him a befitting response.
Pakistan should keep the focus on Indian-occupied Kashmir to bring an end to illegal occupation of Kashmir. Any requests to Pakistan on mediation efforts in the region such as Afghanistan, Iran or Saudi Arabia should be linked to open support on Kashmir. The economic and military response to article 370 abrogation is to repeal the boundary between Pakistan and Indian occupied Kashmir and elsewhere. Air space and Pakistan’s Exclusive Economic Zone utilisation by Indian commercial entities should be checked to put economic pressure on the Indian government. Import of all Indian goods should be banned. On the diplomatic front, besides highlighting the matter at official levels, Pakistani diaspora should be mobilised through foreign missions of Pakistan to highlight Indian atrocities in Indian occupied Kashmir and for the long-awaited joining of Kashmir with Pakistan.
The author is a retired commodore of the Pakistan Navy and can be reached at msohailyz@gmail.com