- Causes and outcomes in Pakistan
By Hafiz Muhammad Azeem
Climate change is the change in global or regional climate patterns, in particular, a change apparent from the mid- 20th century onwards and attributed largely to the increased levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide from using fossil fuels. It has caused drastic effects in the world climate such as the rise of carbon dioxide levels and global temperature, melting of ice sheets, the rise of sea levels, and ocean acidification, etc. A range of human activities are responsible—NASA says 97 per cent of climate scientists agree that climate-warming trends over the past century are very likely due to human activities— for instance, the rapid emission of carbon dioxide. Thus, we need a broad-based international consensus and firm national commitments to fight it.
Human activities are the major cause of climate change. Burning fossil fuels like coal and oil has increased the concentration of carbon dioxide. Due to expansion of greenhouse effect, global warming increases. In this, gases like water vapours, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and chlorofluorocarbons in the atmosphere prevent heat leave the earth’s atmosphere, resultantly the ozone layer depletes and the temperature rises.
In its Fifth Assessment Report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change concluded that there is a 95 per cent-plus probability that human activities over the past 50 years have warmed our planet. The industrial activities that our modern civilisation depends upon have raised atmospheric (IPCC) carbon dioxide levels from 280 parts per million to 400 ppm in the last 150 years. The Panel also concluded there is a better than 95 per cent probability that human-produced greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have caused much of the observed increase in Earth’s temperatures over the past 50 years. In addition, about half of the CO2 emissions between 1750 and 2010 have occurred in the last 40 years.
Deforestation and increased chemical use in domestic and agriculture life is another reason. Deforestation is the second leading cause of global warming and produces about 24 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Scientist say that deforestation in tropical rainforests adds more carbon dioxide than all the world’s cars and trucks. The surge in the uses of chemicals in domestic as well as in agriculture, in the shape of fertilizers, also plays its role. The high rate of application of nitrogen-rich fertilizers has effects on the heat storage of cropland (nitrogen oxides have 300 times more heat-trapping capacity than CO2) and the run-off of excess fertilizers creates ‘dead zones’ in our oceans. In addition to these effects, high nitrate levels in groundwater cause concern for human health.
These causes resulted in climate change, and in this regard the IPCC was created by the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organization in 1988, now engages with 195 Member countries, and provides policymakers with regular scientific assessments on climate change, its implications and potential future risks, as well as puts forward adaptation and mitigation options.
The foremost hazardous evidence is the rise of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. According to NASA, for a millennium the CO2level was below 300 ppm, started to rise since 1950 and is now above 400 ppm.
Pakistan alone cannot do it. It is a global issue. It is high time for the UN, along with all 195 countries, to not let the grass grow under its feet and act now to save the mother earth
Second, the rise of global temperature. NASA says the planet’s average surface temperature has risen about 1.62˚F (0.9˚C) since the late 19th century, a change driven largely by increased CO2 and other human-made emissions into the atmosphere. Most of the warming occurred in the past 35 years, with the five warmest years on record taking place since 2010. This is also established by the UN report prepared by the WMO on 22 September 2019. It states that the period “is currently estimated to be 1.1˚C above pre-industrial era of 1850-1900, and 0.2˚C warmer than 2011-2015”.
Third, the oceans are getting warmer, and ice sheets are shrinking. NASA says the oceans have absorbed much of this increased heat, with the top 700 meters of ocean showing warming of more than 0.4˚F since 1969. Further, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets have decreased and lost an average 286 billion tons of ice annually between 1993 and 2016, while Antarctica lost about 127 billion tons of ice annually. The rate of Antarctica ice loss has tripled in the last decade.
Fourth, the glaciers are melting and sea level is rising. Around the globe glaciers are retreating including in the Alps, Himalayas, Andes, Rockies, Alaska and Africa. Moreover, the global sea level rose about eight inches in the last century. The rate in the last two decades, however, is nearly double that of the last century and is accelerating slightly every year.
There is other drastic evidence. Arctic sea ice is declining rapidly. Disturbed rainfalls and extreme weather events have increased. Also, ocean acidification has increased about 30 per cent since the industrial Revolution. There is also has a negative impact on crop yields.
Moreover, the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report says there are numerous risks, which Include pf of death, injuries, health or disturbed livelihoods due to storms, flooding and sea-level rise. Moreover, the water or electric supply, and emergency situations are also at risk. Also at risk is food security due to droughts, flooding, and precipitation variability. There is risk to marine and coastal ecosystems, and biodiversity, also.
Although Pakistan is not contributing much to global warming or climate change, it is the seventh most affected country. The Global Change Impact Studies Centre of Pakistan shows that that mean annual temperature has increased over Pakistan more in Sindh and Balochistan. During the last century, the average temperature over Pakistan has increased by 0.6°C, which is in conformity with the average global increase. Future climate change projections based on all the four IPCC-AR5 RCP scenarios show that the average rise in temperature over Pakistan by the end of the century will be about 1°C higher than the global average. This increase is links to such adverse impacts as the increasing frequency of extreme events (floods, droughts, heat waves, and cyclonic activity), steady regression of most glaciers (except a small minority in the Karakorams) that supply the bulk of the country’s water supply, and changes in the rainfall patterns.
Pakistan’s water cycle is primary area affected area. Agriculture is a major sector likely to be adversely affected. Climate change can disrupt food availability. Projected increases in temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, changes in extreme weather events, and reductions in water availability may all result in reduced agricultural productivity. Moreover, seasonal smog is also due to pollution.
Pakistan has also suffered economically. Pakistan has faced around 150 freak weather incidents in the past 20 years: flash floods and smog in winter, forest fires in summer, melting glaciers, freaky heatwaves, landsides, displaced population, etc. During floods in 2010-11, almost 10 per cent of Pakistan’s population was displaced in two provinces. Last year, the costs of extreme weather were $384 million and in the past 20 years, the overall loss has been almost $2 billion.
As the handwriting is on the wall, the world is responding to the danger, like with the Global Climate Strike call on September 20, through which protest was recorded in around 150 countries at over 4,500 places.
Similarly, internationally, the world’s organisations have shown commitment. There various agreements and protocols for climate change. The IN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is the main international agreement, one of three conventions adopted at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992. To date ratified by 195 countries. It started as a way for countries to work together to limit global temperature increases and climate change, and to cope with their impacts.
Besides, in the mid-1990s, the UNFCCC signatories realised that stronger provisions were needed to reduce emissions. So they agreed to the Kyoto Protocol in 1997, which introduced legally binding emission reduction targets for developed countries. Next comes the Paris agreement at the Paris climate conference took in 2015. The agreement presents an action plan to limit global warming ‘well below’ 2˚C. There is also the Montreal Protocol 1987, a global agreement to protect the stratospheric ozone layer by phasing out the ozone-depleting substances. Moreover there is also United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) 1994 to combat desertification and mitigate the effects of drought in countries experiencing serious drought/desertification.
We must change course by 2020, as UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has said, we risk missing the point where we can avoid the “disastrous consequences for people and all the natural systems that sustain us.”
Here are some suggestions to tackle global warming. Dramatically reducing our use of fossil fuels especially carbon-intensive coal-is essential. There are many ways to begin. Key action steps include: not building new coal-burning power plants, initiating a phased shutdown of coal plants, and capturing and storing carbon emissions, for which the technology exists.
Tropical deforestation and emissions from agriculture represent nearly 30 per cent of the world’s heat-trapping emissions. We can fight global warming by reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation and by making our food production practices more sustainable.
Besides, using alternative sources of energy is more efficient and meets the problem of global warming. Energy from solar, wind, tidal, biomass are more clean and renewable. An increased share of nuclear power in the energy mix could help reduce global warming.
Above and beyond, a successful global compact on climate change must include financial assistance from richer countries to poorer countries.
The energy used to power, heat, and cool our homes, businesses, and industries are the single largest contributor to global warming. Energy efficiency technologies are direly needed.
Efficient fuel consumption modes of transport and switching to low-carbon fuels is the requirement of time.
In a nutshell, we must develop a two-pronged approach: firstly, we must reduce emissions and stabilise the levels of greenhouse gases, secondly, we must adapt climate-friendly lifestyle and pursue sustainable economic growth.
Although Pakistan is facing environmental challenges, because of the deteriorating economy, the country could not do much. But still, the present government has launched Ten Billion Trees Tsunami Programme for revival of forestry and control air, weather, wildlife, forestation, watershed management and soil conservation. Furthermore, the country is amongst pioneers who established a climate change ministry. In addition, the country has also launched the Climate Change Policy 2012. The National Climate Change Policy comprehensively addresses all possible challenges and provides a foundational framework. But Pakistan alone cannot do it. It is a global issue. It is high time for the UN, along with all 195 countries, to not let the grass grow under its feet and act now to save the mother earth.