- The next Indian false-flag operation may be at sea
Muhammad Sohail Ahmed
When the Indian reporters asked the Indian Navy Chief about what’s the new development with Pakistan on 26 August, he said that intelligence reports suggested that the underwater wing of Jaish-e-Mohammed was planning an underwater strategic attack on Indian ships. He quoted intelligence reports as the source of his information. Intelligence reports are normally not divulged and a discrete response is prepared to counter the threat. However, India has a history of saying opposite to what it plans.
In the 1971 war, the news about destination of the Indian carrier group leaving Indian port was spread as disinformation indicating a false destination. It is interesting to note that Admiral Karambir Singh has stated this information as new, whereas the same report was published in the media one year ago, citing JeM and its underwater wing. What is the purpose of this disinformation? Experience suggests that similar to the stage-managed Mumbai attacks of 2008, a similar plan is on the cards.
One random Indian Navy ship or flag carrier will be sunk indigenously, so as to blame a so-called terrorist organisation. During the 2008 attacks, the Indian agencies killed 166 citizens of its own. The proof of this statement is that the victims included DIG Hemant Karkare, the chief investigating officer of the Samjhauta Express carnage (that killed hundreds of Pakistani nationals). He had fixed the blame on RSS operatives after preliminary investigations. He was warned to not bring out the facts or his life would be at risk. How could so-called terrorists from outside India go straight away to Karkare and single him out for killing from millions of residents in Mumbai? Certainly, the attack was well conceived by the Indian agencies to kill two birds with one stone.
An adequate number of ships awaiting scrap at Gaddani may be modified for offshore coastal surveillance, monitoring and facilitating our fighter aircraft flying defensive air patrols at sea. Anchored off the coast, in deep sea or berthed, these scrap ships should have their own power generators, communication equipment and small boats and be able to provide a complete air, surface and subsurface picture, enabling the Pakistan Navy to take punitive actions against any intruding units
This new stage-managed event will probably be brought about to take pressure off from the Indian government for repealing Article 370 of the Indian Constitution, thereby paving way for the annexation of Indian occupied Kashmir against the UN resolution and the will of the Kashmiri Muslims. It is also evident that such a plan is already underway, and reports have been released that some rubber boats have been found abandoned in Sir Creek and that Pakistani commandos have already entered the Indian state of Gujarat. Indian Army Southern Command has also expressed its concern at the threat developing in that region.
A recent tour of Indian Naval Academy officers to Rann of Kutch is worth noting. However, the most sought-after area of Indian operations is Gwadar port as CPEC is an eyesore for the Indian government. At an opportune moment, an Indian flag carrier gets sunk, supposedly by terrorists operating as an underwater wing, which Admiral Karambir Singh has already predicted, thereby blaming Pakistan for such an attack. Repeating the precedent of the Balakot intrusion and forgetting the response of the PAF, India’s surface or sub-surface forces may launch a missile attack on the port infrastructure of Gwadar.
This may precede the Indian naval aircraft carrier for augmenting airstrikes from the seaward direction, thereby expecting the world community to adopt non-interference policy. In 1971, the port of Chittagong was blocked by the Indian Navy aircraft carrier cutting the two wings via both sea and air. Pakistan expected that the US Navy 7th Fleet would arrive to intervene which never came. US President Donald Trump has already stated that Pakistan and India should sort it out by themselves and among themselves, which is a clear manifestation of the likely response of the USA.
There must be no expectation after 48 years have passed. Luckily Pakistan has now developed the capability to resolve problems on its own. Any missile or air attack should be responded with a massive missile retaliatory attack on the Jawaharlal Nehru port of Mumbai and the Kandla port complex. The destructive power should be sufficient to render these ports unusable for at least the next 50 years.
In the last two interactions in the last two years, Pakistan detected an Indian submarine and pushed it towards deep water. However, in the next interaction, there should be a fishermen folk force that should be equipped with big fishing nets to catch the snorkelling submarine or when it is detected at periscope depth. Legal authority is entrusted to them to prosecute the culprit crew at sea in the light of the Official Secrets Act of 1923.
An adequate number of ships awaiting scrap at Gaddani may be modified for offshore coastal surveillance, monitoring and facilitating our fighter aircraft flying defensive air patrols at sea. Anchored off the coast, in deep sea or berthed, these scrap ships should have their own power generators, communication equipment and small boats and be able to provide a complete air, surface and subsurface picture, enabling the Pakistan Navy to take punitive actions against any intruding units.
All ships bound to India must be directed to pass 200 nautical miles clear of Gwadar port because of Indian efforts to a stage-manage event at sea.
The author is a retired commodore of the Pakistan Navy, and can be reached at msohailyz@gmail.com