- The ongoing confrontation complicates relations with Afghanistan
The ongoing crisis caused by India’s abrogation of Article 370 of its Constitution is having a blowback on Pakistan’s ties with Afghanistan. First, because those ties involve the Afghan peace process, where it has been speculated that the USA may provide Pakistan some unspecified help over Kashmir in exchange for its good offices in helping the USA reach a settlement with the Taliban allowing it to withdraw its troops. Second, because the present Kabul government is friendly to New Delhi, any clashes it has with Islamabad must be seen through this prism. Thus the recent statement by the Foreign Office that Afghanistan must withdraw its ‘terrorist hideouts’ from along the border, and the Foreign Office spokesman’s stout assertion that Pakistani troops were acting only to defend themselves during the recent border shelling, must be seen as Afghanistan acting as an Indian surrogate.
While there has never been any love lost between Pakistan and Afghanistan, they have always helped one another, or at least been neutral, in times of difficulty. During the Soviet invasion, Pakistan provided refuge to as many as three million Afghans, and has continued to do so for those who did not go back to Afghanistan under the Taliban or when the USA ousted them. Afghanistan, through its government has always tilted towards India and been against Pakistan, has declared its neutrality on the occasion of all three Pak-India wars. Therefore, Pakistan may expect such a favour once again, but it must consciously ensure that frictions with it are kept to the minimum.
It must also keep in mind that the Kabul government is unhappy about the USA’s peace process with the Taliban, and sees them as a Pakistani surrogate. Therefore, at a time when it needs the goodwill of the Kabul government, it should not offend it needlessly. In particular, it should not pose it existential threats, such as the one created by the blocking of Indian trade with Afghanistan through the transit trade agreement. Such a step may not be tenable in international law, and was not carried out when the USSR had invaded. If Pakistan and India were to go to war, it might be possible, but as a mark of national anger, it is hardly a measured step.