- The world’s indifference is shocking
The Arab Spring that shook the Middle East was sparked by an incident in Tunisia. We all remember the vegetable vendor and some of us even remember his name, Bouazizi. But very few of us have heard the name of Faida Hamdy, the woman who, if she had not done what she did, we may not have the incident, leading to rioting in Tunisia which spread all over the Arab world. Faida Hamdy was a policewoman who not only confiscated Bouazizi’s vegetable cart (because he had no permit) but also slapped him and spat on his face. When Bouazizi didn’t get justice, he burnt himself in protest.
If we can rein in the Faidas we may never have the Bouazizis. This stands true for all human excesses, undue killings, mass slaughters and genocides. The world wakes up late and is always firefighting to control the effects whereas the symptoms and the causes are always there. The curfew in Kashmir has entered its 23rd day and all we hear so far are reassurances by a world which remains in a “reassuring mode” as world leaders make statements of “keeping a close watch of the developing situation”.
When nothing works out and the world remains as insensitive as it is, the people of Kashmir must know that in this obtuse and indifferent world, the only thing that leads is what bleeds. For them, the time for offering sacrifices may still not be over
The world again waits for a Bouazizi to wake up its conscience. The situation in Kashmir is worsening daily. Pakistan has repeatedly reminded the world about an Indian false-flag operation inside IoK blamed on Pakistan. The security situation along the LoC and in Kashmir warrants immediate attention from the world to address the fast deteriorating situation before it’s too late.
The Indian Prime Minister is in France. India has purchased 36 Rafale fighter jets from France for $9 billion. The closed-door huddle at the UN Headquarters in New York was not followed by a statement to the press because France, the USA and Germany, considered that the language might broaden the issue beyond the possibility of a future India-Pakistan dialogue. The great loss to India was Russia’s stance but it now looks like India will gradually make a shift and rely more on a French veto instead of a Russian. India has put in enough economic and political work to “buy the silence of the world”. It’s not only France that has termed Kashmir a bilateral issue but Muslim countries, like Bangladesh whose political and economic interests are aligned with India, are also speaking the same language. Considered as a “Superpower in waiting”, India tends to get a favorable responses from states that hope to partner it in future. President Trump’s stand on Kashmir and his repeated offers for mediation can also be attributed to economic reasons.
Robert D BlackWill and Ashley J Tellis in their article “The India Dividend” in the September issue of Foreign Affairs write, “Critics carp that the United States has overinvested in India and the favours accorded to New Delhi have not been worth the return.” They point to India’s failure to select a US fighter and also its inability to conclude the nuclear reactor purchases promised under the breakthrough nuclear agreement. Although India increased its defence acquisitions from the USA from zero to $18 billion in 2018, it still did not cut its links with its 0 main supplier of defence equipment, Russia.
In October 2018, India announced it was buying S-400 air defence systems from Russia for $6 billion. The open markets and the trade space India offers is a carrot the world finds very difficult not to eat. Thus India, instead of being whipped by the world for committing gross human rights violations, earns on the matter of Kashmir via delays, postponement of attention and procrastination. The result is that India seemingly remains under pressure but never appears to be panicking or planning to change what it has done in Kashmir.
The question people repeatedly ask today is, “Would there be a war due to the current situation in Kashmir?” According to the raw military metrics, Pakistan is weaker. The question is not whether there will be war. The real question is: Would nuclear deterrence, which worked since World War II, actually fail? It is hard to imagine India initiating an all-out war against Pakistan. Even a surprise attack against Pakistan in AJK is a remote possibility for the fear of retaliation— which it tasted already a few months ago. Yes, it will continue to carry out smaller tests of Pakistan’s resolve in the form of ceasefire violations, executing false-flag operations in its own territory and accusing Pakistan of sending infiltrators and militants across the border. All this will be to promote its narrative of executing strong defensive measures against an insurgency planned, executed and driven from across the border.
Three important factors will to determine the final solution. Firstly, time— the longer the world takes to react the greater opportunity India gets to gain a stranglehold over Kashmir. The confinement of people in West Bank and Gaza, the building of the concrete security wall and the construction of the Israeli settlements all came about when the world eventually became insensitive to Israel’s repeated atrocities in Palestine. Second, the attitude of the permanent members of the UN Security Council matters. If they cannot see beyond their selfish economic noses, the resolutions on Kashmir will remain buried in dusty files in UN Headquarters. Lastly, when nothing works out and the world remains as insensitive as it is, the people of Kashmir must know that in this obtuse and indifferent world, the only thing that leads is what bleeds. For them, the time for offering sacrifices may still not be over.