- The abrogation of Kashmir’s constitutional protections as changed everything
By: Hamza Tauqir
Pakistan has always maintained the stance that there must be a plebiscite in Kashmir in accordance with the UN Resolution, and it has always supported the Kashmiri freedom struggle in letter and spirit. India, after abrogation of Article 370 of its Constitution has stripped Kashmir as an independent state, which has strengthened the Indian stance at the international level giving it flexibility to move around legal obligations. Pakistan, utilizing its political, diplomatic and economic resources, can move around only so much, bearing limited fruition.
The restraints on Pakistan are because India enjoys cordial diplomatic relations with major powers. Pakistan can engage with the international community including the USA, China, Russia, EU and Arab States to urge India lessen the hostility, reduce the military and air force alert levels, and demobilize its military assets across the LoC and the international border with Pakistan. (India in addition to its regular deployment of 600,000 troops has mobilized 180,000 additional paramilitary troops from February 2019 till date).
US President Donald Trump’s statement on mediation in Kashmir issue during the Pakistani PM’s visit, was impetus enough to mobilise the Modi government to carry out constitutional changes and impel the USA implement the status quo in the region, based on India’s preferences
The major powers in this context, the USA, China and Russia, can do little as India for them in economic terms is the single largest trading partner with bustling and growing economic prospects as compared to Pakistan, which is currently facing a crumbling economy. Pakistan can play its trump card by urging the USA to pressurize India for negotiations with more vigour than before as time is ticking for the Kashmiri people with upcoming demographic changes expected to follow the constitutional amendments. China on the other hand will only be able to help Pakistan as much as it can support the Kashmir cause under the guidelines of the United Nations, while it lacks any significant influence over New Delhi itself.
Russia and India holds a significant bilateral relationship. The changing tilt of India toward the USA and the emerging political and military relationship between Pakistan and Russia can come into play for Pakistan during the current diplomatic complications. It is however to be kept in mind that India and Russia are major military partners and any shift by Russia will most likely be minimal. The role of Middle Eastern countries and thw EU is nominal and holds limited weight to it, as India itself is a major economic partner with diplomatic and political relations with many Arab and EU states including Saudi Arabia, UAE, the UK, France and Germany.
Now it comes to Pakistan itself to devise a solution to the Kashmir issue. With a significant decrease in the support of the Kashmiri struggle and subsequent division and clampdown on the indigenous Kashmiri armed resistance by India, including mainstream political leadership, the future of the Kashmiri struggle is in a disarray. After the demographic changes to Kashmir, the political impetus for the Kashmir struggle would suffer drastic impact. In the case of New Delhi’s federal control over Kashmir and its assimilation into India at the administrative level, the political cause of the Kashmir struggle for Pakistan would die down. Kashmir, being a major water source for the region, holds a key strategic importance for Pakistan.
The special parliamentary Kashmir Committee has neglected the Kashmir cause at the political and diplomatic levels and has suffered a major loss at the international level in propagating Indian political and military atrocities in the region while the Indians played their wild card. Pakistan should realize that there should be a firm plan of action to be implemented for the resolution of Kashmir.
Following the abrogation of Article 370 and 35A, the dynamics of Kashmir would now verge towards establishing a status quo by India along the Line of Control. India’s actions with respect to Kashmir highlight the fact that India wanted to drag the Kashmir issue till that extent where Pakistan was diplomatically and politically weak enough to yield before India’s will. Subsequently, after this political debacle, no one from the international community would bother coming to rescue Pakistan’s cause. US President Donald Trump’s statement on mediation in Kashmir issue during the Pakistani PM’s visit, was impetus enough to mobilise the Modi government to carry out constitutional changes and impel the USA implement the status quo in the region, based on India’s preferences.
Pakistan can now use the platform of electronic and print media along with diplomatic and political platforms to further the implications of the Kashmir issue. Pakistan for a long time has shown military restraint towards Indian aggression in Kashmir along LoC, but it is to be understood by New Delhi that it should not test Pakistani resolve any further. While Pakistan holds significant military capability to engage India militarily, the only reason for abstaining from exercising the military option is to avoid the suffering and deaths of millions of people in the region.