- US pressure does not favour either the PPP or the PML-N
Prime Minister Imran Khan’s official visit to the USA (so far) is either considered a continuation of Republican ‘Do More’ policy or a landmark in the history of Islamabad’s bilateral relations with Washington. But what is clearer is that the Trump Administration has decided to adopt the policy of silence, if not indifference, towards the purge of political leaders, especially the Sharifs and Zardaris, over alleged corruption charges here in Pakistan. In fact, President Donald Trump, during the presser, extended his good wishes for Mr Khan and expressed hope of him succeeding in his anti-corruption drive at home, adding that he would lend his support to the PM in his fight. And this is meaningful in a lot of ways.
The USA has had a history of denouncing democratic governments in response to any suspected violations of political and human rights in Third World countries. However, we also see that it has backed military regimes in the past across the world, suspending its position as the champion of democratic principles in favour of its strategic and military interests. This contrast and diametrically opposed postures of the USA’s successive administrations have had a great influence on the power dynamics in Pakistan, both strengthening and weakening governments. And this visit of Mr Khan is no exception to the seesawing US resolve between meddling into domestic politics of foreign countries as a pressure tactic and choosing not to interfere when matters are going straight.
Although it is still unknown which monarch had Mr Khan referred to before he made the plea bargain offer to the Sharifs and Zardaris, there is clearly a bad news for both Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) leaderships from the USA at the moment. The Free Nawaz Sharif campaign, just ahead of the visit to the USA, seemed like a timely move by the PML-N leadership; and a plea before the major global actors, including the USA, to step into the arena and put their weight on their side. For some understanding, let us look at examples from the past. The former US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice claimed that her country paved way for Benazir Bhutto’s return to Pakistan in 2007; the Memogate scandal when the PPP government allegedly reached out to the Americans to rescue it in 2011; the USA supporting Nawaz Sharif in 2014 during the anti-government protests led by Imran Khan and so on.
the opposition parties are going to face a tougher time in the near future not only because of internal differences and external attempts at changing the loyalties of its members, but also because of factors emerging on a regional and international level
But all of the above-mentioned involvements came at a time when there was a wedge between the civil and military leaderships, and some room to create an environment where either side could be given a subtle support to pressure the other. However, the changing geopolitical situation in the region with US forces being frustrated in Afghanistan coupled with a new government in the office in Pakistan, which has no historical differences and distrust against the military as an institution, has left little space for the both the leaderships to come closer. Hence, we see that the chances of an NRO, that Mr Khan alleges the opposition wants, have further decreased. There is a reason why Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s (PTI) seems to have little need to make a rapprochement with even one of the two major opposition parties in the Parliament.
But there are several obstacles that can hinder the ruling party’s controversial accountability campaign against its political rivals. The first obviously is that there are several other forces that can influence the government to go slow or provide some sort of relief to Nawaz and Zardari. As highlighted above, one such influence has already come according to the government claims. There can be several others as both Nawaz and Zardari have enjoyed personal relations with several global leaders who still yield an influence across the world. Moreover, the civil-military present consensus and US non-interference policy is contingent to the Afghan Peace Process and course it takes in the future. The USA must closely be watching Pakistan’s role in terms of how it protects its interests in the region. The words of Trump must not be forgotten when he threatened to wipe out Afghanistan in about a week or so. This can work as a wild card for the marginalised political parties which nevertheless have a strong support base and vote bank in the country.
Assuming not much goes wrong, The US 2020 elections still remains a factor of uncertainty in the Pak-US equation. In case the Democrats win, it can seriously put pressure on the PTI government to reconsider its policies against the opposition parties, although much damage would probably have been done by then. It is pretty evident that Nawaz is no more in the good books as he has always had a soft corner towards our eastern neighbour, India. And the USA, to this point, seems adamant in trusting Pakistan with a greater role in relations with post-conflict Afghanistan than India, which is a clear policy shift from the Obama Administration.
Therefore, it is becoming clearer that the opposition parties are going to face a tougher time in the near future not only because of internal differences and external attempts at changing the loyalties of its members, but also because of factors emerging on a regional and international level. Pakistan seems to have stepped in an era where it again, like in the history, stands at the centre of attention in the region, making it less likelier for those political parties which have sour relations with the establishment and good ones with our eastern neighbours, to make a comeback. However, a significant change in India-US relations, whereby the former asserts itself in the region or the government’s difference over key issues with the establishment may disrupt Khan’s political pace, creating a window of opportunity for those in trouble at the moment.
