- India has not reciprocated Pakistani goodwill
By: Usama Sherazi
There was much hope of the new era of good relations based on love, respect and cooperation between Pakistan and India when after assuming the office, Imran Khan extended good gestures. But these best wishes were not reciprocated in the same way. The Pulwama incident, wherein 40 Indian CRPF personnel were killed, further exacerbated the already strained relations. The post-Pulwama political situation, especially during the Indian general elections, shaped a new narrative in the Indian policy circles against Pakistan. While many in both countries were optimistic that once the general elections were over, India would mold its way toward Pakistan. But it was just a delusion. One can understand that the intransigence of the Indian political and military elite through the overall emerging geo-strategic alignments, and the political culture based on jingoist nationalism, emerged after the rise of the BJP in India, day by day exacerbating the security situation in the Indian-occupied Kashmir, crossborder terrorism and severe ceasefire violations.
These are crucial factors shaping the future of India–Pakistan relations. In the given circumstances there are very little chances of a breakthrough; only if the leaderships of both countries bring a paradigm shift in their strategic culture, keeping political and strategic compulsions apart, and think of a better life for the future generations of both poverty ridden countries
Pakistan and India have had a long history of hatred, animosity, competition, and conflicts. Both countries have fought four full-fledged wars and unlimited border skirmishes. Thousands of people have died in these wars and ceasefire violations from both sides. This has instilled hatred in the minds of general populace especially those living in the border areas. While Kashmir— the bone of contention— still stands where Nehru and Jinnah left in 1948. Kashmir apart, the policymakers in New Dehli hesitate to even talk on other perennial issues crying for a solution like Siachen, Sir Creek, water, trade, ceasefire violations, human rights abuses in Kashmir, visas and people-to-people contact. Despite the offering of good gestures from the Pakistani PM— tacitly backed by the security establishment— the recalcitrance of the Indian ruling elite is beyond the understanding of many. But here are some factors stopping Narendra Modi from taking positive steps for ameliorating the relations.
The expectation of a thaw in India–Pakistan relations from the RSS-backed Modi is nothing more than a utopian dream: Unlike the previous Indian general elections of 2014, this time the BJP contested primarily on jingoist nationalism, exploiting national security threats, especially from Pakistan, and the dream of Hindutva (Hindu State). Narendra Modi had created an anti-Pakistan and anti-Muslim culture before the elections. Despite many setbacks on the economic front and failure to deliver what he promised in the 2014 election campaign, the recent landslide victory is a manifestation of Modi’s success in exploiting the Hindus’ nationalistic and religious sentiments. The growing fascism in India, which a Congress MP has also mentioned in her recent speech in the Lok Sabha, will not allow Modi to take any positive steps for breaking the ice. With the emergence of Hindutva, it seems that the old narrative of Akhand Bharat is finding no place in the Indian power corridors. The BJP of Atal Bihari Vajpayee has been hijacked by the RSS jingoists and any expectation of thaw in the relations seems a utopian dream.
Secondly, the regional geostrategic dynamics and overall international alignments are also impeding both countries from coming closer. The power, which has been dwelling on the shores of Atlantic for the last 400 to 500 years, is moving toward the shores of the South China Sea. Two blocs have already emerged. One led by the USA and other by China. The competition and confrontation between both are inevitable. India has already aligned its strategic interests with those of the USA and taken a major role in containing China in the region. Pakistan, being a natural Chinese ally, would take the same role from Beijing’s side. The USA is heavily investing in the development of the Indian military, striving to make India a member of Nuclear Suppliers Group, and building its navy to confront China in the Indian and the Pacific Oceans. The attitude of India and the USA against the Belt and Road Initiative and its flagship project CPEC shows that competition between the two blocs is going to be fierce. Though competition and cooperation can run simultaneously, in the case of India and Pakistan it seems quite impossible.
Thirdly, crossborder terrorism and ceasefire violations will determine the future of India–Pakistan relations. India has always accused Pakistan of sponsoring terrorism in Indian-occupied Kashmir. According to them, these terrorist outfits freely operate in Pakistan under the auspices of the Pakistani Inter-Service Intelligence. The Indian side believes that the real bone of contention is crossborder terrorism, not Kashmir, which is why many times the dialogues between both countries yielded nothing. Pakistani interlocutors have failed in convincing their Indian counterparts regarding the seriousness of the Pakistani security establishment in carrying out actions against proscribed organizations. And this time Indian security establishment is more apprehensive than ever before as when the Afghan war ends, Kashmir could be an attractive place for many jihadists to pursue their mission. Many in the Indian establishment are foreseeing the same situation as Kashmir had experienced in 1989 after the withdrawal of Russian troops from Afghanistan. The future of India–Pakistan relations would be dark if things happen in the same way.
The human rights situation in Kashmir is worsening day by day. Dissenting voices of local journalist are being suffocated while the international media is not allowed to cover the real situation of the Valley. The United Nations has lambasted Indian security agencies in its recent report on the human right situation of Kashmir. Social and political processions are not allowed while a curfew was imposed on the third death anniversary of Burhan Wani. Many even in the Indian establishment believe that India is losing Kashmir due to the policy of oppression they have been pursuing for the last 70 years. The uprising which started after the death of Burhan Wani, has been creating severe problems for Indian establishment in managing the affairs of the Valley. India holds Pakistan responsible for the post-Wani uprising and if the situation goes from bad to worse in the near future, the more it will negatively affect the bilateral relations.
These are crucial factors shaping the future of India–Pakistan relations. In the given circumstances there are very little chances of a breakthrough; only if the leaderships of both countries bring a paradigm shift in their strategic culture, keeping political and strategic compulsions apart, and think of a better life for the future generations of both poverty ridden countries.
Syed Usama Shirazi can be reached at usamasherazi129@gmail.com