- Pakistan’s importance is because of Afghanistan
By: Dr Zeeshan Khan
Once US statesman Henry Kissinger said, “Donald Trump is a phenomenon that foreign countries haven’t seen. So it is a shocking experience to them that he came in to office. “
Meeting first time after the twitter spat in last November. All eyes were fixed on the outcome of the meeting between Trump and Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan. When Trump, the incumbent king of the world, meets other smaller counterpart statesmen, the scenario is drawn towards not what is going to happen but what comes to mind is the exploitation game at the end of the day as the result. That would have been the condition if the things did not get off the track. President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Imran Khan have similarities too: both are populist and sincere to their cause but unorthodox; and their chemistry could iron out many crests and troughs in the Pakistan-US relationship. Imran Khan should recognise that spoilers and lobbies, who view the Pakistan-US relation with suspicion, would try their utmost to spoil the atmosphere of goodwill through trivia and controversies. No matter which side of the US-Pakistan relationship you are on, you cannot but agree that playing by the rules hasn’t worked. And it won’t— because divergences in interests on key issues are real and their respective positions on them are too dug in.
A fresh start is needed for both the countries and the region for peace, stability and prosperity
The global norm of statecraft is to play safe: be boring, go slow, do not spring surprises, and stick to talking points. But for the time being, let the two leaders be themselves.
If going by ‘the script’, Trump echoed Washington’s negative energy: he would have blame Pakistan for the mess in Afghanistan, talked of sanctuaries and terrorism, the danger of nuclear weapons, and promised to keep the pressure up till Pakistan delivered. Khan will fire away by accusing the USA of using Pakistan as a scapegoat, of destabilising South Asia and being in cahoots with India, and ask for support on FATF, IMF, Kashmir, and so on.
But, the arrest of JuD Head Hafiz Saeed before the visit and opening Pakistani airspace to Indian planes had some specific indications. With India in the US embrace, and Pakistan the new poster child of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative, any conflict between New Delhi and Islamabad will also have higher stakes. After the February face-off at the border between the two countries, when the Indian Air Force crossed into Pakistan for the first time since 1971, a defence build-up in one country will automatically trigger anxiety in the other. On the Line of Control dividing disputed Kashmir, the risks of military escalation are sky high. Unless New Delhi accepts Islamabad’s offer of talks, further regional instability is likely.
Against this backdrop, with US-Iran tensions on the boil, a modicum of diplomatic courtesies for Islamabad may stay on the menu in Washington, but these will have a limited shelf life if the situation in Afghanistan worsens. When the storm gathers, US anger— which is rarely based on what actually went wrong in the region— could spark fresh tensions. In the age of Twitter tripwires, facts won’t matter much. It is heartening to note that the US State Department and its Bureau of South and Central Asian Affairs have updated their info portal on the relations with Pakistan, which as of June 21, 2019 stated, “The United States has been one of the largest sources of foreign direct investment in Pakistan and is Pakistan’s largest export market. Trade relations between the United States and Pakistan continue to grow and the US government supports this relationship by funding reverse trade delegations, business conferences, technical assistance, and business outreach. Pakistan remains an attractive market for US companies due to favourable demographics, English language skills, low labour costs, and natural resources.”
The U.S. agenda clearly focuses on countering terrorism. Equally important was Pakistan’s key role in pushing the Afghan Taliban to reduce battlefield violence and engage in direct talks with the Kabul government, both of which are tough asks at this point. Beyond that, the politics of the visit will likely be boilerplate: Pakistan should do more to stabilize Afghanistan while also doing more to comply with global money laundering requirements and International Monetary Fund (IMF) benchmarks. If Trump is in a good mood, he may even invite Khan to dinner at the White House.
In US eyes, stabilizing Afghanistan is Pakistan’s only real trump card. Islamabad would prefer to have a broader relationship with Washington beyond being seen as a window into a changing Afghanistan. Yet, in international politics, hopes matter as little as intentions.
The visit is meant to push the Afghan peace process on a positive trajectory. This visit is taking place to find common grounds based on the changing dynamics of the region. Trump’s policy on Afghanistan has to be implemented before 2020 and an amicable solution found which preserves US interests and guarantees that Afghanistan does not become a base of terrorism directed against the USA and the West.
The peace talks that US envoy Zalmay Khalilzad has been conducting with the Afghan Taliban and other Afghans have gone a long way toward breaking down barriers. Still, too many members of the Afghan Taliban see violence as a means of boosting their negotiating power. The irony is not lost on anyone. Once upon a time, the USA wanted to fight and talk. Now the Taliban seem to be doing so.
For its part, Pakistan has been instrumental in making the talks happen and has belatedly received some muted recognition of its unprecedented efforts to facilitate these delicate negotiations. The U.S. government’s listing of the separatist Balochistan Liberation Army as a terrorist group is one of the tokens of that recognition. But, now a fresh start is needed for both the countries and the region for peace, stability and prosperity.
The writer tweets at @DrZeeshanKhanA1 and can be contacted at [email protected]
