- In an era of confrontation
While the political landscape remains murky, economic wizards will heave a sigh of relief that Pakistan has finally entered its 13th IMF (International Monetary Fund) bailout since the eighties. The frontloaded programme will bring stability to the markets and improve the country’s credit rating thereby enabling it to borrow from other IFIs (international Financial Institutions) and various other bilateral and private sources.
Interestingly, long before the package was confirmed, most of the conditionalities put forth by the international lending agency were well known. But now they are official.
Most intriguing is the dollar free float against the rupee. The IMF-imported State Bank governor Raza Baqir a few weeks back in a presser had claimed that the value of the rupee will be determined by the markets, but the central bank will intervene wherever necessary.
However, the IMF in its final programme has obviated this possibility by making GoP (Government of Pakistan) to agree upon complete autonomy for the State Bank free from political intervention. Similarly according to the IMF diktats the same “free from political influence” policy will be adopted regarding gas and electricity tariffs and circular debt.
The GDP growth for the current financial year is not envisaged more than 2.5 per cent. Judging by the rate of population growth this is almost negative growth, thereby more Pakistanis will go under the poverty line during the current financial year.
Structural reforms and privatisation are part of the package. However, the government’s first priority will be to stabilise the economy rather than strictly following a reform agenda.
Unlike his predecessor Asad Umar, the advisor on finance Dr Hafeez Sheikh knows the ropes in Washington, where he has served in the World Bank. Belonging to a political family of Sindh he is also aware of the landscape and its stark political realities.
Nonetheless he will need a lot of luck to see the IMF programme through; as Islamabad is notorious for leaving the IMF programmes once crunch time is over. The proposed austerity programme however will bring enormous hardships for the people.
However, the party in power while remaining firm on its agenda should bring the opposition on board on key national issues including the economy
Already, cement distributors, the textile sector and various others have taken to the roads. Understandably there are many more to follow.
Luckily for the government, it has full support of the military that in its recent corps commanders meeting has fully endorsed its economic agenda. The Army chief by virtue of being member of the newly minted National Development Council has formally taken full ownership of the government’s economic policies. In fact, even before being inducted he was advising the government on economic issues including key appointments in the economic team.
The real rub however is the lack of political consensus over the government’s policies. Post opposition parties coalescing under the banner of the APC (all Parties Conference), Khan has decided to use the stick rather than the carrot.
Suddenly the rhetoric against opposition leadership starting from the very top has gone many decibels up in the past few weeks. Arrests and institution of fresh cases against the opposition leadership betrays a certain sense of panic in the government circles.
But the last straw was arresting the maverick PML-N Punjab president Rana Sanaullah traveling on the motorway to Lahore on drug smuggling charges. A large amount of contraband drugs were ostensibly recovered from his car by an ANF (Anti-Narcotics Force) special team that had inexplicably reached in record time from Islamabad to catch Rana red handed.
As per the new normal the PTI stalwarts on the one hand blatantly claim that the government has nothing to do with Rana’s arrest. The consistent mantra being that NAB (National Accountability Bureau), FIA (Federal Investigating Agency) and ANF, are independent entities and not under the influence of the government.
But on the other hand, Federal Minister of Narcotics Control Shehryar Afridi held a joint press conference on Thursday along with the head of the ANF who incidentally is a serving major general in the army. The minister claimed that the ANF has enough evidence against Rana whereas the DG refused to share any information with the media.
The mystery further deepened when in the face of a barrage of searching questions by media persons present, the presser was quite mysteriously suddenly called off halfway. The electronic media was instructed not to show its live footage.
The Special Assistant to the Prime Minister on information, Firdous Ashiq Awan- who these days leaves no stone unturned to please her boss with effusive praises and by vociferously maligning the opposition leadership in the harshest of terms-has claimed that the government has the footage of the operation conducted against the opposition leader that will be produced in the court.
One should reserve judgment before the government brings out evidence against a politician who never pulled any punches against his opponents. But there are very few buyers, however, of the official version that Rana is indeed a drug smuggler.
The hapless media pundits are once again on the mat by being the judge and the jury at the same time. An analogy is being often drawn in the media with former prime minister late Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto in the early seventies instituting a case against opposition leader and father of Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, the late Chaudhry Zahoor Elahi on a trumpeted charge of stealing a buffalo.
Confrontational politics is by definition the job description of a political opposition. However, the party in power while remaining firm on its agenda should bring the opposition on board on key national issues including the economy.
The political atmosphere will be further vitiated by the joint opposition’s move to bring a no-confidence motion against chairman senate Sadiq Sanjrani on Tuesday. Hence it is obvious that the time for consensual politics has practically run out.
Last Friday was the 42nd anniversary of late general Ziaul Haq’s coup that overthrew Zulfikar Ali Bhutto’s elected government. The ruthless dictator ruled Pakistan with an iron hand.
In the process he destroyed the very ethos of Pakistan. His original plank was to hold elections in 90 days that later transformed into eleven long dark years of repression.
In the process through his cold-blooded policies he tried to transform Pakistan into an ideological state according to his own narrow interpretation of Islam rather than what was envisaged by its founders- Jinnah and Iqbal. Unfortunately, the nation is still grappling with the unsavoury legacy of Zia.
But few lessons have been learnt. Building the edifice of democratic institutions does not seem to be amongst the priorities of the present ruling elite.