- The lack of information causes doubts
Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s visit to Pakistan was turned into something of a mystery from its inception, because though President Ghani did have talks with Prime Minister Imran Khan, both one-to-one and at the delegation level, there was no joint press conference, or even a joint communiqué. Instead, it was left to the Pakistani Prime Minister’s Office to share with the public the details of the talks. This comes after the peace conference in Bhurban of Afghan opposition forces took place, which was also left without any post-moot briefing. This might create an impression that President Ghani’s visit was about that meeting. That would be a false impression, as even the Prime Minister’s Office spoke of a reboot in relations, which rightly implied a relationship that needed one.
That the two leaders had achieved that reboot has been claimed, but there are a number of issues which need resolution, not least those of border management. If there is the problem of fencing the border, and thus dividing the tribes that straddle it, there is also the vexed question of the closure of the border to Afghan dealers in perishable goods, mostly fruit. It would be this aspect of the relationship that prompted President Ghani to address the Lahore Chamber of Commerce and Industry on the Lahore leg of his visit.
If Pakistan indeed wishes for a reset of relations, it will have to show its respect for Afghanistan, something which it has not done adequately thus far, with the result that Afghanistan has been driven into the arms of India. It also cannot afford to rely on its historical ethnic and religious links, but must prepare to present a good land route for Afghan goods. The developing Iranian port of Chabahar would have allowed Afghanistan to provide the Central Asian Republics a route to the sea, but now that it has been hit by US sanctions, the prospects decline, and Afghanistan will need to use Gwadar as a substitute, not just in its role as an entrepôt for Central Asia, but for its own trade needs. Whether or not the present visit proves to be successful as a prelude to the peace process in Afghanistan, its ultimate success will be by how it affects future bilateral relations.