Ghani’s visit hints at closer Pak-US ties

• Pakistan is seeing its relevance restored

Daniel S Markey was perhaps spot-on when he titled his book No Exit From Pakistan (2013), describing Pakistan’s relations with Washington– tortured, often marred with upheavals, and unbreakable– for a large part of our history.

The recent indicators also suggest that Pakistan’s importance in the region has duly been recognised by not only the USA, but also by the incumbent Afghan government. President Ashraf Ghani’s latest visit to Pakistan comes as a clear sign of recognition by the Afghans and Americans alike, of Pakistan’s value in the ongoing peace dialogue with the Afghan Taliban. It is the acceptance by the global community of Pakistan’s narrative that war is not the solution for Afghan conflict, and a more realistic assessment of the stakeholders in the area is needed to be done. The graph of our bilateral relations with the USA has been quite predictable, which after disturbances, have come back to normal. Let us track the ups and downs.

Despite episodes including the Salala checkpost attack, followed by Pakistan cutting NATO supply routes, drone attacks and the USA suspending military and civilian aid to Pakistan, we have never become irrelevant for the USA as a crucial ally in the region.

Even in the recent past, the USA had left no stone unturned to add into Pakistan’s already worsening economic crisis, with an aim to build pressure.

In July 2017, the US Secretary of State had stated that they would be carefully watching the IMF in regard to any bailout given to Pakistan, amid their concerns that the money would be used to pay off Chinese loans. As a consequence, Pakistan’s newly elected leadership had struggled hard to reach out to its allies, China and Saudi Arabia.

A serious task for Pakistan is to watch its interests in Afghanistan, but at the same time address US concerns, which may further better its ties with it. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s visit in this context may also afford us with an opportunity to deal with China on more equitable terms, which would equally benefit both countries

This was well analysed by the US policymakers that with the change of the government in Pakistan, coupled with their dwindling strength in Afghanistan, it was need of the hour that they stop Pakistan from slipping away as their ally in the region. This only culminated in the IMF finally approving a bail-out for Pakistan, the terms of which can be argued, despite contrary claims made by the USA in the past.

Undoubtedly, many factors had played a part in Pakistani leadership also understanding that they need to change their path which was leading them towards global isolation. This was backed by the pressure the new government faced when certain quarters of the civil society had started saying the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) was less favourable to Pakistan in entirety, and making accusations that China was trying to make Pakistan a debt economy. The evidence for this may be found in the delay in the completion of the development projects, such as the Orange Train.

But as Mike Clooney said, on every other side of a crisis, there is an opportunity.

Apart from other reasons behind the USA failing to achieve its objectives of the 18-year-long War on Terror, reports suggest that Iran has started backing the Taliban in the wake of its strained relations with the USA over the nuclear deal, and are providing them with strategic and logistical support, if not military. This is also on record that the US government has continuously accused Russia of supporting the Taliban. Pakistan’s support is required by the USA at this time, more than ever before. However, Pakistan is at a risk of hurting its ties with Iran by siding with the USA, a signal which came in the form of Iran’s warning that it would take Pakistan to the international courts if the gas pipeline project is not implemented according to the agreement.

On the other hand, Iran has moved closer to India, as the latter is investing in the former, one of the examples being the Chabahar port. It is worth noticing that here the interests of the USA and India significantly clash with each other, as it has already started pressuring India to limit its foreign investment in Iran. This comes in the wake of Indian aggression, as the two sides have still not been drawn back from the point of enhanced hostility. The USA had played a crucial part in de-escalating the situation, which may have led to a catastrophic war. Moreover, India is not liking Pakistan’s role in talks with the Taliban, something which is considered strategically crucial by the USA in its end game in Afghanistan.

We can see that not only has this government started taking more steps towards the implementation of the National Action Plan, it is also addressing the concerns of Financial Action Task Force, specially by its active efforts against the banned organisations.

Although Pakistan’s relations with Iran may deteriorate in the coming years– which may have adverse effects at home– it has a golden opportunity to become relevant in global politics again by mending its relations with the USA by cooperating with them, thus neutralising the possibility of India’s nefarious ambitions in Afghanistan. A serious task for Pakistan is to watch its interests in Afghanistan, but at the same time address US concerns, which may further better its ties with it. Afghan President Ashraf Ghani’s visit in this context may also afford us with an opportunity to deal with China on more equitable terms, which would equally benefit both countries. Pakistan’s relations with India are likelier not to plunge further, if not improve, as Pakistan would be back on the list of the USA’s much needed allies in the region.