- And return of Shehbaz Sharif
Now that the holy month of Ramzan is over, like the scorching heat the political temperature in the country is also bound to further go up in the coming weeks. Confounding cynics the leader of the opposition and Muslim League president Shehbaz Sharif is due back from London today after an extended stay.
The younger Sharif is considered to be a pro-establishment politician within the PML-N. Being a cancer survivor it was understandable that he needed to consult his doctors in the British capital. But being away for almost two months gave rise to all kind of speculations.
It was generally conjectured that like his son Suleiman and former finance minister and family consort Ishaq Dar he too had left for London on a one-way ticket. Journalist Javed Chaudhry in an interview with NAB (National Accountability Bureau) chairman justice (Rtd) Javed Iqbal gave further impetus to such rumours.
In the said interview the NAB chairman had made the sensational claim that Shehbaz Sharif had asked for a deal according to which a huge amount was to be paid by an undisclosed third country. In return he would quit politics but son Hamza be allowed to become chief minister Punjab.
In any case it was an unrealistic goal, as PML-N still gravitates around Nawaz not his younger brother
Both parties- namely Shehbaz and the NAB chairman- have vehemently denied the claim. In fact, justice (Rtd) Javed Iqbal denied that the interview ever took place.
Nonetheless the columnist and television news anchor Javed Chaudhry stood by his story. In fact he told me that not only the interview took place, it was done on the specific request of the NAB chairman.
Notwithstanding the veracity or otherwise of the said interview, some circles insist that a deal was offered through a third country for both the Sharif brothers. However, the prime minister balked at it and rejected any kind of such backroom arrangement saying that he would rather resign than to let the Sharifs go scot-free.
Shehbaz Sharif’s impending return should put to rest such wild speculations. Political happenings during his eight weeks absence from the country have taken place at such a fast pace that it will take some time for him to catch up. While in London social media clips showing the former chief minister of Punjab roaming around the streets of London damaged his credibility within the party he is supposed to be heading.
During his absence Maryam Nawaz, the elder Sharif’s daughter and political heir apparent came out of virtual hibernation. Now she is the vice president of the PML-N. Some say Shehbaz, who also offered to quit the much-coveted post of chairman of the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) of the National Assembly, was shattered in the manner in which the establishment ditched him.
It is surmised that he lost his utility for them after being unable or unwilling to hijack the PML-N. In any case it was an unrealistic goal, as PML-N still gravitates around Nawaz not his younger brother.
The biggest dilemma for the erstwhile ruling party is, “to be or not to be.” Street agitation is not the PML-N’s forte.
The party is not even speaking with one voice and seems somewhat confused over the mode of resistance against the PTI government’s establishment backed putsch against them.
Former prime minister and senior vice president of the party Shahid Khaqan Abbasi wants to build up a campaign for mid-term polls alleging Khan’s complete failure in running the country. While PML-N Punjab President Rana Sanaullah is in favour of an in-house change.
According to Rana the PML-N is willing to work with the PTI provided Khan is no longer prime minister. He has implicitly shown willingness to work with foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi as the new prime minister.
Qureshi, a very ambitious and flexible politician is not new to the game. He started his career in elected politics first as planning minister under chief minister Nawaz Sharif in the mid-80s and later in the early nineties as finance minister under Manzoor Wattoo. At that time his father Makhdoom Sajjad Hussain Qureshi was the province’s governor. All were nominees of dictator general Zia-ul-Haq.
Quick to smell the coffee beans SMQ switched to the PPP. In the 2002 National Assembly he was PPP’s nominee for prime minister. But this was just a mere symbolic gesture as general Musharraf, who was carving out the so-called Patriots from the PPP, PML-Q and Nawaz League through political engineering, opted for quisling Zafarullah Jamali.
Although aiming for the top slot, SMQ was given the consolation prize of being foreign minister in Yousaf Raza Gillani’s cabinet in 2008. Zardari unhappy with his being close to the army chief general Kayani’s establishment replaced him in 2011.
Quitting the PPP, he soon joined the PTI. This time he wanted to be the chief minister of Punjab.
However, his ambition was thwarted by his defeat in the provincial seat by a relatively unknown candidate in the 2018 general elections. He blames Jahangir Tareen (albeit unfairly) for engineering his defeat.
PML-N accepting SMQ to replace Khan could be a political ruse to drive a wedge in the ruling party. The PTI with its wafer-thin majority in the National Assembly and in Punjab has to watch its back.
The poor state of the economy and bad governance coupled with opening new fronts with the higher judiciary and PTM (Pashtun Tahafuz Movement) could cost Khan his job. And Qureshi could very well be the establishment’s candidate to replace him.
Meanwhile the PPP co-chairperson Asif Ali Zardari and his son the chairperson Bilawal Bhutto are clearly taking a more militant line. They want Khan out. The former president thinks the PM should be removed to save the nation.
Bilawal Bhutto has convened an important meeting of the party’s Central Executive Committee (CEC) in Islamabad tomorrow to be jointly presided by the father and son duo. On the same day Asif Zardari’s bail before arrest granted by the Islamabad high court is due to expire
The All Parties Conference called by Maulana Fazlur Rehman scheduled to be held later this month would also be crucial in chartering the future course of action. Hitherto neither the PPP nor PML-N has endorsed his plan for a long march to Islamabad to oust the PTI government.
The PML-N in sharp contrast to the PPP is still hedging its bets. The Sharifs while adamant to get rid of their nemesis are in no mood to alienate his backers as yet.
They hope that soon the ubiquitous establishment will reach the inevitable conclusion by itself that political engineering has failed to engender the desired results. That is the window of opportunity for which the opposition is perhaps waiting for.
However, in the present milieu Sharifs and Zardari will not be allowed to fly even if Khan is somehow ousted or replaced. That is why the opposition parties have to tread very cautiously. But in the hapless republic of ours miracles are not uncommon.