Dealing with his jingoistic agenda
In a post Trumpian world of rising right wing populism, it is no surprise that in our neighbourhood ultra nationalist BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party) spearheaded by its leader Narendra Modi has swept the polls with an even bigger majority than 2014. Despite the per functionary optimism expressed by Prime Minister Imran Khan and his foreign minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi, it probably spells more trouble for Pakistan in dealing with its belligerent neighbour.
The BJP won the elections on a virulently anti-Pakistan, anti -Muslim xenophobic plank. Hindutva has decisively defeated secularism already in decline in India. Modi- the self-proclaimed chowkidar of India- with his thumping majority in the Lok Sabha is in an ideal position to fulfil his divisive election promises.
This could include building the much-touted Ram Mandar at Ajodhya in place of the demolished mosque at the site. Similarly, he could bring anti cow slaughtering legislation hitting at the livelihood and cultural ethos of Indian Muslims.
The 172 million Indian Muslims will have to pay for not supporting the BJP. The meagre number of seats won by Muslims is proportionately much less than their demographics.
But the real rub is the Indian occupied Kashmir. The BJP has never hidden its intentions to change the valley’s special status under Article 370 of the Indian constitution. It also intends to rewrite article 35A relating to Kashmir.
In the meanwhile, Kashmir burns like never before. On the eve of the elections Indian security force martyred 14 Kashmiris in trouble spots of the valley.
Truth is the first casualty in such war like situations created by ruling elites for their own ulterior motives
Zakir Musa a Kashmiri militant branded as a terrorist by the security forces was martyred in a south Kashmir village Tral. Spontaneous protests broke out on Thursday night in Shopian, Pulwama, Awantipora and Srinagar raising slogans in favour of Musa, prompting authorities to impose curfew in some parts of the Valley.
Scores of Hurriyat leadership including Yasin Malik and Syeda Asiya Andrabi are behind bars or under house arrest. According to estimates over a thousand Kashmiri activists are languishing in the notorious Tihar jail in New Delhi.
Shah Mehmood Qureshi met his Indian counterpart Sushma Swaraj a day before BJP’s thumping victory on the sidelines of SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) foreign ministers moot at Bishkek the capital of Kirgizstan. Ostensibly a lot of bonhomie was exchanged in a meeting that took place after a long hiatus.
Islamabad has made numerous overtures to New Delhi for dialogue even before the Pulwama incident. Sushma Swaraj at the last minute did not show up for the Kartarpur Corridor groundbreaking ceremony last November. Similarly India refused to attend the SAARC summit (South Asian Regional Cooperation Organisation) scheduled in Islamabad, thus effectively sabotaging the holding of the meeting.
But the last straw was the Pulwama incident in February in which 40 Indian central reserve force personnel were killed in a suicide attack. Although the attack was indigenously planned and executed, the Pakistan based JeM (Jaish-e-Mohammed) claimed responsibility.
This was a Godsend opportunity for Modi and his hardliner establishment to pin it on the so-called Pakistani deep state without even a shred of evidence. After China was not willing to veto the move, JEM have been declared a UN designated terrorist organisation.
Nonetheless the incident gave Modi the opportunity to set the anti-Pakistan and anti-Muslim tone of his election campaign. By matching his incendiary narrative with action, he was able to manifestly increase anti-Pakistan sentiment amongst the Indian electorate.
Allowing the Indian Air Force to cross the international border and dropping bombs in the vicinity of Balakot in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) was a major escalation. No Indian government since both the countries had become nuclear powers dared do it. Even during the Kargil war India studiously avoided crossing the international border.
Although Pakistan effectively dealt with the aftermath by downing an Indian MIG-21 within its air space the next day, Modi was successful in sending the right message to the Indian electorate.
His message was clear: despite Islamabad being a nuclear power, unlike his predecessor governments he was willing to go to any length, “to teach Pakistan a lesson”. In this context, the prompt return of the downed Indian pilot Abhinandan Varthaman by Pakistan was not appreciated as a goodwill gesture.
Rather, the whole incident was presented as a victory over ‘the ubiquitous enemy’. Buttressed by the jingoistic Indian media the entire Indian nation celebrated it as a pre-emptive strike. The Indians were told that at last Modi flexed his muscle against what was termed by the media as “Pakistan sponsored terrorism.”
Truth is the first casualty in such war like situations created by ruling elites for their own ulterior motives. Hence falsely claimed successes and self-proclaimed heroes were presented for electoral gains. The dismal failure of the Indian Air Force was deliberately covered in the din of jingoistic propaganda.
Where does Islamabad go from here? Exactly five years ago in May 2014 Prime Minister Sharif tried personal diplomacy. Hoping for a thaw he attended the oath taking ceremony of Modi.
If the then Pakistani prime minister was thinking that this was his Vajpayee moment, he was sadly mistaken. Atal Bihari Vajpayee came to Lahore on his bus diplomacy in February 1999 hoping for a new beginning in India Pakistan relations.
The so-called Lahore Process was effectively sabotaged by the army chief general Pervez Musharraf who was planning his disastrous Kargil misadventure at the same time.
Sharif not to be deterred easily, surreptitiously invited the Indian prime minister to his granddaughter’s wedding in Lahore in December 2015. Post oath taking ceremony in 2014 Modi was courteous with his Pakistani counterpart. But at the same time, he made a litany of complaints.
Obviously, Modi the butcher of Gujarat is no Vajpayee the poet. Hawks like Richard Nixon opening to China and Ronald Reagan warming up to the former Soviet Union, which he derisively termed as the Evil Empire, changed the course of history.
But in the present era a wave of authoritarian populism is ruling the roost. And Modi seems no exception. A few weeks back Khan had expressed optimism that it will be easier to talk peace with Modi leading to a solution of the Kashmir issue.
In the present context it is just a forlorn hope. Unlike Sharif hopefully the prime minister will not make the same mistake of confusing personal chemistry with intractable disputes between India and Pakistan.
Sharif’s efforts for a thaw earned him the wrath of the hawks within the establishment. Hence the slogan: Modi ka jo yaar hai ghaddar hai ghaddar hai (whoever is Modi’s friend is a traitor). Ironically it was Bilawal Bhutto who coined the slogan.
Hopefully Khan will not make the same unforced error.
