At Penpoint
- The PML-N still has no replacement
The PML-N is facing a downward trajectory, but there is still no sign that an alternative rightist force is being developed, or is developing, that could take over its votebank. With that votebank still in its possession, the party will soldier on, even though it faces a double-decapitation strike, in the form of what looks like a jail term for its eponymous Rehbar, Mian Nawaz Sharif, and the resignation of his substitute, younger brother Shehbaz from both the hard-won Public Accounts Committee Chairmanship and the leadership of the PML-N parliamentary party.
The PML-N is the political platform which attracts the voters who oppose both the PPP and the PTI, who are not just relatively conservative, but include the religious vote. It should not be forgotten that the religious vote in Pakistan has generally not gone to religious parties. The so-called unity alliance, the MMA, succeeded in the then NWFP only once, and did poorly elsewhere.
The first-past-the-post system of single-member constituencies seems to have resulted in two major parties, one on the right and one on the left. The PPP had been on the left, but it seems the PTI has taken over the space once held by the PPP, except in rural Sindh. Another feature has been the regionalisation of politics. This is more apparent in Sindh and Balochistan, the latter having travelled from forming governments at least nominally led by members of national parties, to governments of provincial parties. This too is the result of the electoral system, where a party is not obliged to find candidates outside its strongholds. That makes it possible for regional parties to confine their activities to certain regions, but also to have manifestoes unappealing to other provinces: The Hazara Subah Party manifesto would leave voters in Sindh totally cold, for example, especially its call for the division of a province with which theirs has no boundary. There are some Hazarawal in Karachi, and some may sympathise enough with the demand for the creation of a province to choose the party to vote for, but they are unlikely to win a seat, not even in the Sindh Assembly, which is useless for the purpose of forming a Hazara province.
The PML-N voter is still loyal. He or she has not switched to the religious parties offered in the last election
Within this context, the ruler need not be the person the voter intended when he cast his or her vote. Yusuf Reza Gilani, Raja Ashraf and Shahid Khaqan Abbasi were not expected to become PM. Mian Nawaz Sharif was, as was Imran Khan. Voters do not vote their man in directly, but vote for someone who holds the ticket of the party to which their favourite belongs. And that party does not just stand for the party leader, but for an entire ideology.
That is the dilemma now facing the PML-N. It has been hard hit by the return to prison of Mian Nawaz, and the staying abroad of Mian Shehbaz means that its second choice as leader is also ruled out, despite his being considered less inclined to confrontation with the establishment than Nawaz. Perhaps he is paying the price for not abandoning him, and setting up as a leader in his own right.
Be that as it may, the emphasis is now on the transition. The appointments of vice-presidents included both Maryam Nawaz and Hamza Shehbaz. One complication is that the PTI has filed a petition asking that Maryam’s appointment be set aside, as she is on bail in a conviction which still stands. Hamza was initially supposed to be not involved in any cases, but now he is on pre-arrest bail in NAB cases. It seems likely that the entire family will not be able to hold political office, though Hamza first has to be convicted to be ousted.
One problem is that the agency doing the dirty work lacks credibility, and is seen merely as a tool of political persecution. This is not so much the fault of the agency itself, NAB, or the government, as that of the public perception of the justice system. The only thing saving the government is the perception that the Sharifs are guilty. Unfortunately, that does not help the government much, for the perception does not exist of them getting their just desserts, but of their political opponents ending their immunity. The opponents, the PTI, are not perceived as fearless crusaders, but as being just as bad.
The perception of politicians as corrupt is pervasive, and was used by the PTI while it was out of office. However, now that it itself has taken power, the same perception is afflicting it. The problem that the PTI is facing is that Imran Khan is beginning to make Mian Nawaz Sharif look good. Whether or not it was possible to have done things differently, the economy is being mishandled. The main PTI thesis, that an end to corruption would mean a betterment of the economy, is being proved wrong. Either the PTI too is corrupt, or corruption is irrelevant.
All the PTI has left is its ability to beat the PML-N, an ability which the PPP seems to have lost, especially in the Punjab, and which led so many PPP voters to switch to the PTI. Is this enough to take it to the next election? The jury is still out.
However, the PML-N voter is still loyal. He or she has not switched to the religious parties offered in the last election. They remained vehicles for the agencies that backed Imran, but they failed to gain traction. One problem is that the right has not found a replacement for Mian Nawaz. It must be remembered that the left goes for someone apparently superior; foreign-educated, high-achieving. The right goes for someone who embodies middle-class values and is not too bright. But he must not be an alim. The overtly religious parties have a certain appeal in KP, but nowhere else (Members might be elected, but governments are not formed.) Such Ulema have failed to establish an example to persuade voters to overcome their prejudices.
Not all PML-N voters are natural voters for religious parties. The typical PML-N voter used to be essentially a negative voter, who voted against the PPP. Within that, apart from the religious core were the old Muslim League voters, those who were the spiritual descendants of those who supported the party against the Unionists (the AIML included virtually all elements who happened to be Muslim). The present PML-N includes an anti-PTI component. Mian Nawaz appealed to this oppositional strain successfully, but it is yet to be seen whether that appeal can transfer across generations.