Winners and Losers

• Who will gain, and who suffer?

After weeks of heightened tensions between the neighbouring nuclear-armed states, Pakistan and India, the situation is normalizing. In this war frenzy of over a month, everyone, especially people of both countries, awaits to know which side won and which side lost.

Historically, there’s no single winner or loser in fighting between India and Pakistan. In fact, both sides have winners and losers among themselves. However, the elite, also known as the establishment in both countries, especially in Pakistan, knows very well that war can unite a nation like nothing else. There are more similarities and unity than differences in behavior and modus operandi of both states’ elite. They both claim victories and blame the other side for unwanted aggression. They both create war hysteria to divert attention from crucial issues pertaining to the general public good. Time and again, both Indian and Pakistani elites have used the fear of war to tighten their grip over their masses. The fear tactics have been successfully deployed in declaring a state of emergency to suppress growing distrust, anger and dissatisfaction among their masses. For instance, the Indian entral government has over-exercised its powers through imposition of direct President’s Rule 124 times. Under President’s Rule, the President of India, or rather the central government whose advice binds him, enjoys absolute power in running the affairs of province.

One should be mindful that “war sometimes last years”. There are still clouds of war hovering over the region

This works in favour of both countries’ elites. It also helps both the governments to devise new ways of raising money and justifying price hikes in support of war measures. In Pakistan, for instance, government has raised the prices of gas and medicines up to 15 percent since January 2019. This burden of taxes and price hikes has been transferred to poor people as Pakistan’s annual inflation rate reaches a four-year high, rising to 9.41 percent, the highest in the region, in February from 8.21 percent in January.

The latest episode of Indo-Pak war hysteria began on 14 February, starting with a suicide-bomb attack on an Indian paramilitary police convoy in Pulwama district of the conflicted region of Indian-occupied Kashmir. According to the Indian government sources, 37 personnel were killed and five injured, making it the deadliest attack in Kashmir. Within a few minutes of the attack, the Indian government, retired generals, TV anchors and news networks in unison started blaming Pakistan. To endorse India’s claim of Pakistan’s involvement, in a short while, a video statement of the young 19-year-old suicide bomber was uploaded on a social media. A spokesperson for Pakistan-based militant outfit Jaish-e-Mohammad issued a statement claiming responsibility, identifying the young attacker in the video as a JeM holy suicidal warrior. This ‘blame and claim’ game happened within 24 hours.

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, while addressing a political rally, vowed to give a befitting reply to “Our neighbors’ [Pakistan] intentions” claiming that all major world powers were supporting India. Prime Minister Modi said, “Our neighbouring country has forgotten that this is a new India.” To exert economic pressure, Indian government withdrew MFN [Most Favoured Nation] status from Pakistan, resulting in a rise of 200 percent in the duty on all goods imported from it. Similarly, the newly elected Prime Minister of Pakistan, Imran Khan, who himself got elected on a populist-political slogan of “Naya Pakistan”, warned India against any kind of military action inside Pakistan. In his televised address, he warned India, “If you think that you will launch any kind of attack on Pakistan, Pakistan will not just think about retaliation, Pakistan will retaliate,” However, India decided to use the military option of surgical air strikes against supposed JeM training facilities inside Azad Kashmir. Once again, this started a ‘blame and claim’ game between India and Pakistan involving the armed forces of both sides.

On February 27, the Indian government claimed that IAF jets hit “the biggest training camp” of JeM in Azad Kashmir. It was an unprecedented move, the first time Indian warplanes crossed the de-facto border between Indian-held and Azad Kashmir in over 40 years. Furthermore, the Indian government officials that in the surgical strike 300 JeM militants were killed. Once again, the Pakistani government rejected the Indian narrative, but Pakistan vowed to respond “at the time and place of its choosing”. And they did.

A day later, PAF aircraft crossed the Line of Control (LoC) into Held Kashmir which appeared to be two sides’ fighter jets locked in a dogfight. Once again both sides made contradictory claims. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson told media that India lost one MIG-21 while one pilot was “missing in action”. Within a few hours, the Pakistani Army spokesperson confirmed in a tweet that the missing Indian pilot was in Army custody. Later, a video of the Indian pilot, Wing Commander Abhinandan, was released by Inter-Services Public Relations, in which he praised the Pakistan Army for treating him well. This further escalated the tensions between India and Pakistan. Instead of being a calming force both countries’ news channels, TV anchors and retired generals fanned the flames of hostility. Social media was also at the forefront of rapidly spreading rumours and disinformation. Soon war hysteria engulfed the entire South Asian region. Amid this war hysteria, number of soldiers and civilians living in the bordering villages on both sides lost their lives in heavy artillery crossfire. Massive public rallies and war marches in both countries were carried out to show support to their armed forces.

Similarly, to tap popular public sentiments, political parties also jumped on to the war bandwagon. In India, for instance, according to one of the largest Indian polling companies, CNX, Modi’s election campaign got a significant boost after the IAF surgical strike claims. Bhawesh Jha, founder of CNX, claims that “This all goes to the advantage of the BJP… Support for… Modi is surging months before a general election.” Furthermore, this would not only help Modi to be reelected but also take the spotlight off economic issues for which the BJP has felt the heat. Hence, the timing of the Pulwama attack and Modi’s fiery patriotic speeches resulted in creating a war hysteria. Modi and his ruling BJP later gained a decisive advantage in the elections by tactfully playing with the popular public sentiments.

Likewise, in the wake of the attack, the Modi government has given emergency powers to the armed forces to modernize. The Indian media reports, “The financial powers have been increased for all the three services and they can buy weapon systems worth Rs 300 crore under each proposal.” This includes buying 246 spike anti-tank guided missiles for the Army, and similar missiles and other weapon systems for the Navy and the Air Force to “prepare them fully for a war with Pakistan.” Similar measures have been imitated by the Pakistani government to reciprocate its arch-rival. While millions of people are living in abject poverty and deprived of basic human necessities in both countries, spending on the military-industrial complex has adverse effects on the human development in the region. According to the United Nations’ Human Development Index (HDI) 2018, India ranks 130, whereas Pakistan is at 150 out of 189 countries. Good human development policies, or simply good governance, may be more effective than a modern and superior military, for peace and prosperity in both countries.

For time being, somehow, sanity has prevailed as Pakistan released the captured Indian pilot. Similarly, Modi extended greetings to the people of Pakistan on the occasion of Pakistan Day, welcomed in a tweet by Imran Khan. However, one should be mindful that “war sometimes last years”. There are still clouds of war hovering over the region. Likewise, no matter when again fighting might turn into a full-scale war, the winners and losers will always be the same. For durable peace and prosperity of the region, the masses need to end this vicious circle of war and fear mongering once and for all. How? This is beyond scope of this article. Regardless of which side of the border you may live, here are the winners and losers in a Pak-India conflict: