- The balance of power in the international arena is shifting
The last panel of the much-awaited and celebrated Lahore Literary Festival 2019 was a discourse on the emergence of Global Strongmen (termed gender-sensitively as: Global Strong Leaders). The panel, in their rather scattered talk, highlighted the rise of strong leaders all throughout the world – influenced by populist rhetoric that has been attributed to the rise of these voices and formulated populism as a dominant narrative in global politics.
These leaders in their might and influence are challenging the hegemonic world order that has persisted post-Cold War. But it isn’t primarily because of the influence that they have at home and abroad, but also because of how hyper globalisation has out-stripped the foundations on which the free world was sustaining itself. These foundations, standing erect because of economic reasons, have been weakened by successive interventions in the Middle East which have altered the mix of global economy as a whole. We, therefore, saw the Chinese economy become the world’s second biggest in 2016; and while US and China seem to be competing, the grandiose ambitions of the Communist Party of China seem to be dominating the Asian routes leading up to Europe. Competition in the South China Sea is also a case in point, and while tensions with the rogue North Korea have simmered down and the threat of nuclear war averted, the particularities of the de-escalation have yet to be decided.
We see leaders like Vladimir Putin, Bashar al Assad, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Hassan Rouhani, Xi Jinping, President Trump and even Imran Khan beating the odds of globalisation with a pro-nationalist narrative. In this are promises for improving the socio-economic conditions at home as per tailor-made policies. This is in line with Henry Kissinger’s thesis that a state’s foreign policy is an extension of its domestic structures. Thus, it can be said that the balance of power in the international arena is shifting, and only those states that are able to foster a favourable domestic consensus on their external policies will primarily get a bigger piece of the global economy pie.
Getting to this point requires a realignment of geo-economic policies through an understanding of the regional politics that would resonate with the populist aims.
This signifies that the world order is embarking on a transitory path whereby different states are rising, and challenging the existing hegemon
In Pakistan, economic engineering and job creation through the multi-billion dollar China Pakistan Economic Corridor, and its further expansion, is a policy that has gained a lot of traction both internationally and domestically. In the United States, it is the fencing of borders and anti-immigration policies that promises better living standards for the true Americans. In Syria, Assad’s regime has resisted the US-led coalition for four years now and with damage done to both of their economies, bestowed a heavy defeat to the coalition forces. Whereas Turkey with the help of Iran and Russia is negotiating on both sides of this war to maintain balance and to avoid the natural consequences of over-spilling migrants and the amounting costs of war that have already swept through Europe. While this happens, China under Jinping is setting up its global economic empire by marking its presence along traditional routes and acquiring the control of sea ports that connect the entire South Asia to Europe via land.
But this isn’t all. We have dissident voices that had been shunned as non-state actors, the Taliban, sitting at the negotiating table with other strong leaders, in formulating plans for an armistice which they think would help determine the future of the most diverse and prolonging war theatre of post-Cold War history, Afghanistan. We have the epoch of globalisation breaking as the United Kingdom prepares to leave the European Union under Prime Minister Theresa May. Globally, there is a move towards state-ism and these leaders are redefining ways in which global issues can be resolved using a home-grown rhetoric.
Examples of these include global security threats and climate change. Gradually, the world is moving from multilateralism towards regionalism and/or bilateralism which is a more workable way of cooperation amongst the states. So, while different states are unable to abide by international standards of cutting down on emissions, concrete efforts by states are being taken to combat this threat. Similarly, the world over, protective measures are being taken along borders, especially in Europe, to control the movement of people as a counteractive approach to insurgent hotbeds.
This signifies that the world order is embarking on a transitory path whereby different states are rising, and challenging the existing hegemon. During this process, the states led by strong leaders will rise as precepts to multi polarity, until the balance of power shifts in either one’s favour. However, this means that the prolonged but limited wars would be contained, whereas trade wars would dominate international relations.
