- Will Taliban talk to Kabul?
Zalmay Khalilzad, finally in Islamabad, will take back news of just how successful Pakistan has been in pushing the Taliban to talk to the Afghan government now that the militia has effectively broken the ice with the Americans. Arresting and harassing Taliban leaders in Pehsawar ahead of Khalilzad’s visit was more like Islamabad moving pieces on the regional chessboard; trying to exert just enough pressure on the Taliban to induce a manner of flexibility. So far, the Taliban’s position of not even recognising the government in Kabul has taken the wind out of the peace initiative just as quickly as it had breathed life into it by accepting negotiations with the US government.
The militia’s confidence no doubt owes to more than just a string of victories on the ground. In fact, they have been steadily gaining ground since the 2006 Spring Offensive and now control large areas of the country. And, looking at the situation from their point of view, they are in no hurry to accept someone else’s conditions so long as they are the ones making the real advances. Yet, for all their successes, they must realise that there is no way they can take Kabul again and form the central government in Kabul. And even if by some stroke of luck they do, it will be very short lived because no government on earth would help them with finances, security, etc.
But the Afghan government must also accept facts on the ground and negotiate accordingly. Back when Pakistan hosted the first talks in Murree wasn’t it the Afghan side that sabotaged the process by leaking news of Mullah Omar’s death? And even now, with hardliners like their Interior Minister Amrullah Saleh – vehement anti-Pakistan former head of the Afghan intelligence service NDS – leading the peace process, things are unlikely to move ahead smoothly even if the Taliban eventually agree to talk. Strangely, even as Pakistan, the US, China, Iran, Russia and others try to get the Afghans to bury the hatchet, it’s the two principal sides to the conflict that keep piling problems on the road to peace.
