- US agrees to talks in Qatar
Imran Khan does not want Pakistan to be a hired gun. The PM is however willing to become an ally of the US for achieving durable peace in Afghanistan.
With the Afghan war costing $45 billion per year, the pennywise Trump is now in haste to quit Afghanistan. His administration however wants a prior guarantee that the country will not again become a springboard for launching another 9/11 attack. This requires an understanding between the Afghan Taliban, the Kabul administration and the US.
This is not what the Afghan Taliban who continue to hold large swathes of territory reducing Afghan government’s writ to little beyond Kabul are willing to accept. Encouraged by Trump’s keenness to drawdown US troops , they want the whole pie for themselves.
Trumps wants Islamabad to bring the Taliban to negotiating table with Ashraf Ghani’s government. The Taliban having resisted the recent overtures by the Saudi government and UAE to make the two sides enter into dialogue, want the US to negotiate a deal with them in Qatar. They also possess the Iran card if hard pressed by the US.
The pressure is now on Imran Khan and those who support and guide him to deliver the Taliban in return for helping Pakistan overcome its current financial emergency. Committed as the Trump administration is to an India centric policy in the region, it is unwilling to pressurise New Delhi to reduce tensions with Pakistan and resolve outstanding issues with Islamabad.
The US has the Rand Corp Peace Plan up its sleeve if Pakistan fails to help or the Afghan government proves a hurdle. The plan allows the US to reach an understanding with the Taliban, including the declaration of a ceasefire, phased ending of the current US and NATO military mission over an 18-month transitional time period and adoption of a new constitution within the transitional period. It requires a complete renunciation of links by Taliban with the terrorist organisations in return for US civilian cooperation continuing in the post deal Afghanistan. The deal is not free of hiccups but a desperate Trump and a slippery Taliban can go to any length in pursuit of their aims.