End of the road for Zardari and Sharifs?

History bound to repeat itself

Only a few months back it would have been considered unfathomable that the two erstwhile rivals, the PPP (Pakistan Peoples Party) and the PML-N (Pakistan Muslim league Nawaz) owing to sheer dint of circumstances will be forced to join hands. The leadership of both is facing the threat of incarceration in the very near future.

PPP co-chairperson Asif Ali Zardari has got a temporary reprieve in the form of his interim bail being extended till 7 January by a banking court in a money laundering case against him and his sister Faryal Talpur. The main accused, Zardari’s business partner Anwer Majeed and his son Abdul Ghafoor Majeed are already in the slammer.

The reserved verdict against Nawaz Sharif in the remaining two references against him by an accountability court will be announced tomorrow. It is being widely speculated that the three time former prime minister will not be spared and almost certainly face a long jail sentence like in the Avenfield case, later suspended by the Islamabad High Court. Likewise, the president of the PML-N Shahbaz Sharif in NAB custody will soon have a reference filed against him by the accountability watchdog.

The rank and file of both the parties contends that their leadership is being persecuted in the name of accountability. According to them it is pure and simple vendetta perpetrated by the ruling PTI (Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf) and its backers.

Zardari a few days back while addressing a public meeting in the interior of Sindh chose not to mince his words. He obliquely blamed the ubiquitous establishment as well as the PTI government for his present woes. The Sharifs on the other hand are a bit more circumspect in their utterances.

Both parties are girding their loins to launch some form of an agitation, taking it as a given that their leaderships will not be spared. In this context a Zardari-Nawaz meeting is also reportedly on the cards as well.

While in London more than a year ago Nawaz kept on pursuing Zardari for a meeting but the PPP co chairperson refused to play ball. He was bitter about the treatment meted out to him while Sharif was prime minister.

Now the shoe is on the other foot, the former leader of the opposition Syed Khursheed Shah has not hidden his keenness for such a meeting, taking place in the near future. Bilawal Bhutto Zardari the party’s’ chairperson has already announced plans to launch an anti government agitation from Punjab. The PML-N ostensibly has similar plans.

The PTI starting from Prime Minister Khan himself is ecstatic about the situation. They claim that crooks and thieves are finally going to meet their nemesis.

If such tactics were going to succeed, notwithstanding their acts of commission and omission, both the PPP and PML-N would have been politically eliminated long ago.

The ruling party perhaps feels that with virtually no mainstream opposition leaders in contention it will be a shoe in to form forward blocks within the PPP and the PML-N. Of course with a little help, from the ‘hidden hand’ that has been perennially available to the PTI before the general elections and post elections they expect to substantially improve their numbers in the parliament as well as in the Punjab.

Easier said than done. Past experience mitigates otherwise.

If such tactics were going to succeed, notwithstanding their acts of commission and omission, both the PPP and PML-N would have been politically eliminated long ago. Especially the PPP since its inception in 1967 has faced a lot of persecution and ostracization but it has still survived.

Who would have thought that after the judicial murder of its founder Zulfiquar Ali Bhutto by late dictator general Zia ul Haq, his daughter Benazir Bhutto would resuscitate a persecuted and a demoralized party to become prime minister twice.

But military dictators refuse to learn from past history. Zia failed to foist a dictatorship in the name of Islam; Musharrf on the other hand tried his hands at ‘enlightened moderation’.

Just like his predecessors field marshal Ayub Khan, and general Zia ul Haq assiduously sought legitimacy though controlled democracy. Ayub carved out the so-called convention Muslim league from the Council Muslim League. While Zia created his blue-eyed boy Nawaz Sharif to do his bidding after Mohammad Khan Junejo his hand picked prime minister from Sindh refused to be a rubber stamp.

Musharraf thought that he would not commit the same mistakes as his predecessors. In order to do pakka kaam he decided to force politicians to switch their loyalties by forming the National Accountability Bureau (NAB). It is not merely a coincidence that all the former dictators christened their ‘King’s Party ‘ as one Muslim League or the other.

The newly minted watchdog was to break politicians in the name of accountability. Many a politician was quite willing to do Musharraf’s bidding in exchange of becoming quislings in order to enjoy the perks and privileges of power.

The Chaudhry brothers willingly lent a helping hand to Musharrf by aiding and abetting the break-up of the PML-N to carve out the PML-Q. While the maverick politician from Jhang Faisal Saleh Hayat and PPP stalwart Rao Sikandar Iqbal were more than willing to form the so-called Patriots.

The PML-Q is now decimated to be more or less restricted to Chaudhry brothers’ household, whereas the Patriots are now non-existent. Faisal Saleh Hayat is sheepishly back in the PPP folds.

Not to say that the Sharifs – as they now claim to be – were squeaky clean during their long stints at the helm of affairs. Similarly the PPP leadership cannot be absolved of doing no wrong.

However the fact remains that the present accountability drive is perceived as a politically motivated witch-hunt. The PTI affirm quite brazenly that it has nothing to do with the NAB’s putsch, as both the courts and the accountability watchdog are independent entities.

But the glaring question that begs an answer is why only the political opposition is at the receiving end? None of the politicians in the ruling party coalition are facing the treatment being meted out to the opposition politicians.

Unlike the past the military is not directly involved in the so-called accountability process. Nonetheless the commonly held perception is that the so-called hidden hand and the government are on the same page so far as the PML-N and the PPP are concerned.

It is not merely a coincidence that all the former dictators christened their ‘Kings Party ‘ as one Muslim League or the other.

It can be argued that both the opposition parties can be rightly blamed for running their affairs in a completely non-transparent and arbitrary manner while in power. Nevertheless unless there is across the board and transparent accountability, it will be considered crass victimization.

The opposition cannot be simply eliminated through such measures. The PTI might think that once the process is complete it will be the only show in town.

But history is bound to repeat itself. Partly owing to the PTI’s own malfeasance and partly because alternate political narratives cannot be eliminated through administrative means it is difficult to agree with information minster Fawad Chaudhry that Sharifs and Zardari are politically buried forever.