- Changing horse in midstream
By abruptly changing his military strategy at a time when US officials are deeply engaged in talks with the Taliban Trump has bewildered many in the US and the region. The decision came a day after Trump announced victory against the IS in Syria and the return of all US troops from the country. This led US Secretary of Defence Jim Mattis to send in his resignation while Trump’s close Republican ally Lindsay Graham warned that military withdrawal would pave way toward a second 9/11. Similar views were expressed by Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen Josef Dunford.
The Afghan government which was led to believe that Zalmay Khalilzad would bring the Taliban to the negotiating table got the biggest shock, all the more so because it was not taken on board before announcing the decision. Trump has decided to withdraw half the army in Afghanistan. The remaining seven thousand soldiers would now be required to conduct the arduous mission that includes training Afghan forces, advising them in the field and conducting an air campaign against the Taliban and other militant groups. Afghan forces already suffer from low morale due to a high rate of casualties suffered and large scale desertions in their ranks.
The decision to reduce US forces will complicate, if not obstruct, negotiations with the Taliban over reconciliation with the Afghan government. As complained by Zalmay Khalilzad the Talban were already unwilling to talk to the Afghan government. Trump’s decision will be a morale booster for the religious militia as it would strengthen their belief that they would soon take control of the entire country. Instead of agreeing to the proposed ceasefire they would go for the kill in a big way.
Trump’s decision would strengthen the already widespread perception in Pakistan about the US being an unreliable ally who abandons friends and collaborators whenever it suits the American administration. Both Pakistan and Afghanistan would henceforth have to rely more on the tripartite mechanism they have evolved with China. The region will see the decline in the US influence and a strengthening of regional accords like the SCO.
