- Pakistan should sit back
Afghanistan non-party parliamentary elections were supposed to take place three years ago, delayed time and again by widening political schisms and worsening security. On October 20, 2018 voting went ahead under the shadow of a Taliban vow to punish those who took part. There was no voting at all in two critical provinces of Ghazni and Kandahar, while 33pc of the remaining polling stations were shut because of security issues. Wiping out top most Kandahar leadership including General Raziq two days before elections instilled fear in the Afghan voter as the Taliban carried through on their threat on the elections day. Officials reported widespread violence across the country, with the Taliban attacking districts and polling centers, firing mortar shells and exploding bombs in cities.
Taliban have displayed their reach and influence to strike even the securest of Afghan meetings. The penetration of a Taliban affiliate inside the closest security ring of General Abdul Raziq, whom they termed “the savage commander of Kandahar”, confirms the influence and ingress of the Taliban.
As per careful estimates at least 78 people, including 28 members of the security forces, were killed and least 470 were wounded in attacks targeting dozens of districts. In Kabul alone, more than dozen explosions were reported by officials.
Events speak for themselves. Taliban’s relentless display of power speaks volumes. Their direct dialogue with the US worries many Afghans sitting in the power corridors but is seen as a ray of hope for peace by ordinary Afghans who desire an end to the violence. Regional powers including Pakistan have already welcomed an Afghan led dialogue based solution to Afghan quagmire.
Despite Afghan leadership’s desperate attempts to castigate Pakistan and have it blamed for its own failures, the truth is now evident that the Taliban have become a force to reckon with. Unless they are on board any peace talks and negotiations for a final settlement, peace will continue to elude Afghanistan.
We wish our Afghan brothers and sisters well, may their woes be over soon
President Trump’s newly appointed special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad, in his recent visit to the region, including Kabul, Islamabad and Doha, must have found out that there is no other option but to talk to the Taliban leadership directly. Reportedly, and as claimed by Taliban spokespersons, a meeting between the US envoy and the Taliban did take place in Doha.
It is ironic that the shootout took place in Kandahar only a week after the Doha meeting. General Miller barely escaped with his life but the governor of Kandahar, the police commissioner and NDS chief were not so lucky. That the executioners were armed guards, purportedly trained by US forces, speaks volumes for the rot that has set in.
The other danger that is threatening Kabul and the region is the advent of the Daesh. After being routed from the Levant, they are trying to establish bases in Afghanistan. The redeeming factor is that the Taliban recognise the clear and present danger, the Daesh represent and there have been serious clashes between the two protagonists.
The Daesh did manage to find willing takers in the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) for furthering their cause and enlisting for the Daesh franchise. So far the Taliban and the Daesh are antagonists. This is the opportunity that the peacemakers have to keep the Daesh and Taliban separate. However patriotic the Taliban may be towards Afghanistan, it is a matter of time that in desperation, the two join hands against the corrupt and inept regime in Kabul and the foreign forces in Afghanistan. Such a marriage between strange bedfellows will be explosive and must be avoided.
The elections of October 20, 2018 also depict the fragile nature of democracy in Afghanistan. Despite US attempts to plant the saplings, the tree of democracy has failed to take root. Afghans are embedded in their ancient system of Jirga, shura and tribal wisdom. Till peace returns to Afghanistan, education becomes all pervasive, any experiments with democracy is likely to be a failure. The Taliban know that they can disrupt the democratic process of polling through fear and intimidation. The few that do cast their votes can be easily bought and no true representation of the people will emerge. Perhaps the cart is being put in front of the horse by trying to implant democracy before development and progress.
It may be a more fruitful exercise to make a whole hearted effort for peace by engaging all the stakeholders rather than attempting to usher in development, which any way is flawed because of the rampant corruption prevailing in Afghanistan, where development funds are siphoned away and the people continue to suffer, sans education, health care and other necessities of life.
It is a very precarious situation but since the US and West brought it on and the last time they were in the region but departed hastily after the withdrawal of the Soviet forces from Afghanistan, this time around they must ensure that a logical conclusion is reached. In 1989, armed militias, equipped with state of the art weapons and looking for adventure and targets had morphed into the Al Qaeda and the world saw the devastating results.
Now the Occident needs to be pragmatic and without playing favourites, it must take a balanced view and let the Afghans take the initiative for peace, even bringing the Taliban on board, however bitter it may be.
Pakistan in the meantime needs to take a backseat. It is a stakeholder in Afghan peace since all its own development projects like TAPI, CASA 100 and others are on hold till peace returns. However the oft repeated cliché but true aphorism of it being an “Afghan led, Afghan owned” solution must be acted upon.
We wish our Afghan brothers and sisters well, may their woes be over soon.